bleh

This difference on the weekdays, is different than on the weekend.




But you forget new fans. Not only those fans from back then are seeing it. There are new fans. Which explains why the most recent book sold better than all the previous ones. The fanbase is ever-growing.





Azkaban, Azkaban, Azkaban...this movie has been used often enough to proclaim that Potter 1) won't top $100 million opening weekend 2) that it won't top $250 million in terms of total gross. The first has been proven wrong and I don't think anyone can deny that the second will be proven wrong as well.

Your theory is that movies just keep getting more and more frontloaded, but if this is the trend, then by summer 2015 they will drop 90%. It is not so. Batman Begins is a perfect example. This movie HAD to be frontloaded, but it wasn't.

I can assure you the final one won't drop over 70% in its 2nd weekend. It will also open to over $115 million, I figure.

Overall DP, you under estimate the magic of Potter

Other movies have also had midnight showings. Besides people who go at midnight will usually see it opening day anyway. Also, the matinees were killed by school, so an 8.5% drop is huge given how much the matinees increased for Saturday.

I remember this exact same debate with Azkaban in summer 2003 in BOM boards:

Me: The 17% drop proves extreme frontloading and a 55% drop.

Them: That was only because of the midnight showings; otherwise there was no drop.

Me: A) Midnight viewers see it opening day anyway. B) Midnight numbers are reflective of fanboyishness and therefore natural frontloading. C) The franchise is getting more frontloaded.

Then a certain derby player asked me to tone it down because he didn't want me convincing any of his competition of HP's large drop.

Anyway, this is the sequel to a films that dropped 62.5% with good WOM. I think a prediction of a large drop is as safe as it gets. Spongebob is a best case IMO.

But the midnight showings this time have been much much much bigger than Azkaban's. That has been reported from everywhere.

I agree weith Spongebob's comparison. That is pretty much how much Harry Potter will drop as well. Around 44% and no more. I simply don't see how it can posssibly make below $55 million for the weekend.

Why? The difference is not always as easy to see on the weekend, but I'm certain frontloading makes a bit of a difference each day. It only makes sense.



Um, bold. It's part of my argument. With more adults the films are becoming more frontloaded.



I never claimed 1 (I predicted 98m). I had 255m total gross, and I'm a bit above that as of now. In any case my point is that some sequels go up some go down from the previous film in the franchise. One thing nearly always stays the same: they become more frontloaded. So, using Azkaban for that is very relevant IMO.



Well, I don't know about 90% (that's as much a difference from 80% as 80% is from 60%) but yes, frontloading will eventually reach more insane levels. If you told people in the 80s that many blockbusters would one day drop over 60% it would have seemed strange, if not crazy, to them.



One film with incredible WOM does not disprove an obvious trend involving hundreds of films each year over the course of 3 decades.

Anyway, I think the more important factor is the changing demographics for this particular franchise.



Well, it will be a while until we know, but I'm convinced of it. Although I agree in your second point. In fact, why not 125m?

Ah, the magic. You better have your wand ready; HP will need it over the next few days.

Oh Potters going to unleash some

There are also just as many new kids fans as well and they can wait till the 2nd weekend.




What do you project for the total gross?





This year in general has been less frontloaded than the previous years. No The Village, no Hulk, no AVP. Mr. and Mrs. Smith had a very nice multiplier, then Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Flightplan, Wedding Crashers. I mean, Saw II, what exactly had it going for it that gave it a good multiplier? You must admit that finising with a multiplier of over 2.75 is very impressive for an anticipated R-rated horror sequel that opened on the Halloween weekend. I think there is a point at which frontloading won't get bigger anymore.

Which proves:
A) More natural frontloading as reflected in midnight numbers (fanboyishness and such).
B) Changing demographics allowed higher midnight numbers which will also bring about more frontloading.

My argument is not that midnight numbers mean it's like Azkaban in terms of frontloading. I that subtracting midnight numbers from the opening day to judge frontloading makes little sense. The same thing was done in comparing Sith and AOTC, yet Sith was of course more frontloaded overall. Midnight numbers are probably one of the best signs of natural frontloading. An 8.5% drop is massive and it does not mean less frontloading if those Friday numbers came at midnight rather then 7pm. In fact, it's the other way around.



I think Spongebob is the best we could see. HP has a much lower percentage of kids in its audience and it is therefore more frontloaded. I don't see how it could earn more then SS for the second weekend.

C) Despite the huge midnight showings it still dropped less than 10%.

You assumne that the Friday number would have been the same anyway, with midnight showings or not. I disagree.



Then again, Spongebob had Christmas with the Kranks opening AND The Polar Express as well as The Incredibles going strong.

Also Spongebob dropped 57% on the post-Thanksgiving weekend if I remember right. You certainly expect about 10% more for Potter.

Not at all. I've seen articles indicating that all the data shows the new fans tend to be older.



I guess about 267m.



It's mostly the type of films that have opened well. Family films, comedies, adult thrillers, and romantic comedies have always had good legs. What we lack are the big action blockbusters because the action movies have largely been bombing. Then one of the big ones is a action romantic comedy (which I predicted would have good legs). The types to be frontloaded have all been so. Constantine, Ring Two, Sin City, Doom, Jarhead and all the action bombs in between. They just have not opened with much. Look at summer 2003; the frontloading was there because you had one action sequel after another.

I mean, Saw II, what exactly had it going for it that gave it a good multiplier? You must admit that finising with a multiplier of over 2.75 is very impressive for an anticipated R-rated horror sequel that opened on the Halloween weekend.[/quote]

Yeah, it had nice legs, but that's not a massive difference from the 2.5 that would not be so surprising. Especially give the great WOM. There have also been many films with disappointing legs from Kingdom of Heaven to Cinderella Man to Corpse Bride.



Come on, after 30 years of the same trend year in and year out we are suddenly going to say "it's over" because everything didn't go as expected one summer? I really think though that the summer's legs are not that surprising. I mean I gave WC a 4.5 multiplier before opening. F4 was still frontloaded even if not as much as it could have been. WOTW had worse legs then expected. It's really Begins that stands out, and that's an anomaly.

Maybe not quite the same, but close. I don't see how the midnight numbers themselves don't show the frontloading. Plus if someone is willing to go at midnight, they certainly would have seen it anyway opening day.



Kranks was not extraordinary competition. Plus, TPE and Incredibles did not make a difference since they were released before. They affect the opening weekend as much as the second, so, they don't affect the legs. I mean Rugrats 3's legs were certainly not hurt by Nemo. Now, openers affecting holdovers is something you will find plenty of evidence for.



Yeah, let me put it this way: the drop from weekend 1 to weekend 3 will be greater then the previous films. That's been a clear trend with the franchise. So, with 18m or so in the 3th weekend it's hard to see how it will earn near 60m this weekend.

Something interesting happens when we examine this difference more closely. You see, on HP1's first Tuesday other films in the top ten generaly increased around 25-40%. This week Tuesday other films generally increased around 15-30%. Monsters, Inc. and Chicken Little are two movies that have had nicely comparable runs, and MI increased 40.3% while CL increased 26.2%. So when you look at the Tuesday increases in context, the difference between HP1 and HP4 does nothing to indicate increased frontloading. In fact, after the Friday to Saturday drop, nothing else in the daily numbers so far shows HP4 acting more frontloaded than HP1. That's not to say it isn't more frontloaded, but I don't think we're seeing the extreme frontloading that you suggest.

What he said.

The existance of a big number of midnight screenings alone already creates hype for people to see it opening day. I don't think I ever saw a Harry Potter movie opening day, but now that there were mid ight screenings, I went there. I highly doubt ROTS would have made close to $50 million if it wasn't for midnight shows.




Let me put it this way, Potter will make more than $18 million in its third weekend. I could bet on that.

There ARE more older fans than it used to be, but that doesn't mean it gets just as many kids fans as well. I have hard time believing that.





Only $5 million more than CoS despite the fact that it is already tracking over $20 million ahead of it right now?





Even The Island despite its action status and a weak opening had decent legs. Constantine's legs were okay, no worse than they have been for similar movies in previous years. Doom suffered AVP's fate only that it happened outsiide of the summer and killed the weekdays. The Ring Two and Jarhead is simply the result of a huge huge disappointment and especially in the case of Jarhead it is much more bad WoM than frontloading.




Most were predicting a multiplöier of somewhat lower than 2.5. Saw II's legs are simply great for the genre. Cinderella Man had decent legs, IMO, it's just that the hopes were way too high. KOH should have been expected after Troy has already shown that epic films don't mean good legs.




The trend of frontloading won't continue forever, because if it did logically we would eventually have movies dropping 95% in their 2nd weekend. We all know it's not gonna happen. And since we know that, we are aware of the fact that it will stop one day, so what suggests that we didn't reach this border yet?

SAW II kicked the crap out of both of them.. Well done and what a horror movie should be like.. I really did enjoy Amityville, but the concept of changing the character "Jodie" from the novel as a demonic pig to another overdone idea of a little girl with long jet black hair and white face was the dumbest idea in the history of bad ideas and it was done because the makers of the movie thought today's audience wuldn't buy the concept of a demonic pig like the novel "The Amityville Horror" had.. How wrong they were, but still damn good all around.. WHITE NOISE is still damn good to if nothing more than Michael Keaton(who RULES) and the subject matter of EVP's fascinates me..

Well, the thing about those Tuesday numbers is that they vary widely from one film to another. Some drop others increase 60% all within the same year. The fact that it the films were in a certain range one year or another doesn't prove that there was something affecting all the films and causing the drops to be better or worse in general. In fact, I see no reason that it should be different from one year to another. In general each year has a wide range between different films, and the increases overall seem to be random and unpredictable. The only difference might be that earlier in the month the increases are weaker, but with 2001 having Tuesday on the 20th it was even earlier that year. The fact is that if you happened to have a couple films increase 40% this year rather then Jarhead and Get Rich, the picture would be entirely different.

You think people go opening day because others went at midnight?

I think ROTS would have opened with 45m in any case. Yes, midnight might help a bit, but those people go anyway on opening day as you know.



Let me put it this way, Potter will make more than $18 million in its third weekend. I could bet on that.[/quote]

Maybe 18.1m. I really don't think it will top 20m though.

Dude, the numbers prove it. With 60% under 17 Azkaban had 56.2m from the audience on opening weekend. With 42% GOF has 43.1m. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=1946&p=.htm



Yeah, it will lose the lead quickly after Sunday. It's not even a lock to beat COS.



The Island is Bay, and his films tend to have good legs compared to most action films. The legs were exactly what I expected.

Constantine's legs didn't suck, but it doesn't prove it either way. It did have good WOM.

You know Doom didn't have a weak multiplier because of the weekdays. It declined 73%!!!!!

Ring Two did not have the WOM help, although I don't think the legs were solely because of that. It's just what I predicted before release, so not at all a surprise IMO.

Jarhead didn't have horrible WOM by any means. The grade is solid at Yahoo and with Cinemascore. It just had a the audience for frontloading. In any case, weak legs compared to expectations for a number of films does indicate that frontloading is alive and well.



Well, I think around 2.5 was reasonable, and many sequels like this with strong WOM have been in that range. Grudge and TCM both had better multipliers in any case, so, I don't see how this prove a trend towards legs.



Well, I think that is very flawed thinking. It reminds me of the stock market bubble in the late 90s when people thought everything had changed with the "new economy" etc. Long term trends don't suddenly end, and you certainly can't declare them dead based on the short term. Especially since the evidence does not come down strongly either way. Blah, summer 2002 showed much better legs then summer 2001. The reason was the flims in release that year; summer 2003 showed the oposite with the most frontloading ever.

Now I think many went opening day (i.e. to midnight screenings) just because of the enormous amount of midnight screenings and the hype about them. In the case of Star Wars it was the "it-thing" to see it at a midnight screening.




Can go either way. With the worst-case scenario I have calculated, I have it at $18.1 million next weekend. But I doubt it'll be below $19 million.

As you said yourself, the kids can wait till the second weekend. The fact that there are more adult fans now doesn't say that there are less younger fans. I think the fanbase just keeps expanding.




It is. I could bet on that too





Constantine had average WoM. Not bad, not good.

Jarhead was definitely a case of The Village where the advertising was misleading and led to huge drops and bad WoM. I won't even bother to try and argue that. The movie was certainly well-liked by most film fans, but the general audiences felt cheated from what I know.

Doom declined 73%, yes, but it would still cross the multiplier of 2 if released in the summer. You know that. The weekdays would have been way bigger.




Those two were not sequels and were not released on the last weekend in October after which the horror movies are supposed to drop hard.




Well, I guess you made the point for yourself. It's not really the legs that get worse nowadays, but it much more depends on the movies then, eh?

In any case, do you really think the frontloading trend will never stop? Because logically you just cannot say that since it would mean that one day movies would drop 100% in their 2nd weekend.