I think it'll open lower than his 'low' projected opening.

Hmmm, very interesting Dima. nice to hear from you, since you said you used to be very interested in the box office.

I have a few points of contention. I like the charts, the highlighted month openers were well done, and the HP LOTR comparisons were strong. Because of that, I'm wondering about the 60 million prediction. None of the seven movies (LOTR HP) had such a small opening, and if anything, their notoriety would add to the opening weekend push. You mentioned Disney has done a good job creating parallels between Narnia and LOTR, and in fact, the two authors had a strong correspondence. Also, I'd venture to say, while not as "fresh" in the mind, the Narnia book series fanbase and HP fanbase are equally sizeable. Though I do agree with you the hysteria around HP isn't there for Narnia, as the series is so old.

I think your total prediction is pretty strong. 230-250 million. But I think it will be more frontloaded, with an 80 million opening weekend and very short legs due to competition.

Great Read!

'

Don't be so sure about that. This film is getting a lot of hype and by Hype I mean every time I see this trailer in the theatres theres a large mummer going around that the kids want to see it. I think it will open with 75 Million and finish with 230.

Me too. This will be more about legs. I just can't see it opening on the level of FOTR. I see an opening of around $45 million. The multiplier should definitely exceed 4, though.

1) $80 million? Bigger opening than ROTK?
2) It is December and it is a flick that will play perfectly for holidays. Short legs are impossible.

Don't forget, all of the LOTR movies opened over a 5-day frame. I should've included 5-day numbers too, come to think of it.

FOTR had a $75 million gross over 5 days.

I may have gone low with the multiplier, though. The reason I did, was because the movie opens earlier on December, so the holiday boost may not have as much of an effect on it as it did on LOTR.

Thanks.

I don't think C.S. Lewis and J.R.R. Tolkien's personal friendship will have much of an impact on the box office of Narnia

I really can't see Narnia opening as high as any of the HP/LOTR movies. LOTR has a much more loyal following, since it's oriented more towards older readers, and HP is a current phenomena.

For the big opening that it will have, the boost will be considerable still by the time holidays arrive

And I know that FOTR had $75 million over 5 days. If it just had a 3-day weekend, it probably would be around $65-68 million. But Narnia is not FOTR

Funnily enough, despite all that, I do agree with the range for the total gross prediction, maybe just a little bit lower. I just see a smaller opening, but way better legs.

Yep. I could see it opening as slow as 35-38m

Good analysis, Krem. I did not even realize you followed movies.

As others have pointed out, the low end of the opening could be in the $30M's. The rest looks good.

I agree on the total, although I think it will be a bit more frontloaded with a multiplier of 3.5.

In any case, nice article.

Good job on the early high opening prediction, Krem!

Thanks, Artur.

Now I'm hoping that my 'High' total prediction is actually low