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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 11541
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 My thoughts on the weekend:
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Bee Season - Very weak expansion, but weak opening anyhow.
Shopgirl - I dont know what BV is doing, but taking off 80 theaters from Shopgirl? It seems like a wasted opportunity.
Good Night - It's good to see it still hang on to #11. It's only spent 1 week in the top 10, but 5 weeks in the top 12. It's on its way to $20 m very soon. I would love to see this get past $50 m.
Pride and Prejudice - Good performance! There was a strong chance that Jane Austin's fanbase could have rushed out opening weekend, but its good to see this showing legs.
Zorro - Well it could just scoot by $50 m, but with 6 openers or expanders next weekend, it could lose a huge amount of theaters again, after losing out on 900 this weekend, and could very well miss $50 m, which is quite disappointing.
Saw II - $80 m and counting, and a very respectable hold. At this point, I think it could nudge by Flightplan, and finish as the top film of the Sep-Oct season. Excellent excellent run.
Get Rich - It could have been much much worse of a drop, but I'm sure the Wed open saved it from a 70% + drop. Regardless, hopefully future 50 Cent films are about as common as any form of "Glitter 2."
Jarhead - Good to see it stabilize somewhat. It'll reach a good total figure, and is a good thing for both Jake/Jamie's careers.
Zathura - I saw this last week, and it really is a solid family film. Opening in December, even with Narnia, Kong, etc, I think it could have done alot better. But its quite disappointing that its multiplier so far at this point is 1.51. Hopefully Thanksgiving will be kind to it, but I'm afraid it just came out at the wrong time. It could have a finish at less than 1/2 its budget.
Derailed - Actually a solid drop for Derailed, considering the hefty tolls taken on all holdovers this weekend. It has already made back its budget. But for mega star power, Aniston really needs the Break Up to succeed. Solid moderate success for both actors though.
Chicken Little - Poor poor Chicken Little. The sky really did fall on you this weekend! Because Harry Potter 4 is quite dark, Little I believe will still do solid business for quite some time, and should get a strong weekend next week. Monster's Inc went up 6%, Santa Clause 2 19%, Elf 16%, Polar Express 24%, without the holiday theme, a 10-13% increase might be in order next week, even with Yours Mine and Ours opening. A $150 m finish should still be in the cards. This is a much needed success for Disney, and they must be getting used to having Harry Potter smash their major family film holdovers into pieces by now (having happened this weekend 3 times, in the past 5 years, with Monster's Inc, Santa Clause 2 (not a massive drop, but still more than usual), and now Chicken Little. They sure will be celebrating the day that HP7 is released and Chicken Little 3 or Santa Clause 6 won't have to face a massive drop thanks to Harry Potter anymore.
Walk The Line - I am SO bias on this film, but oh well! Solid opening, but it could have done better, but of course much of the press all week was going elsewhere. I think it will hold on well for the holiday season, and should have decent sailing until The Family Stone in a number of weeks and will face some competition from Just Friends, but I think both can coexist fairly well. $100 m is a possibility, and I hope it makes it up there. Good opening for both stars. If there wasn't Harry Potter this weekend, I think alot more press would have come for this, but it was a solid counterprogramming film.
Last but not least...
Harry Potter 4!!! - A miraculous fact to start out my analysis: HP1 adjusts to about $102 m or so, Hp2 $97.3 m, HP3 $96.56 m. The totals may have differed, but the openings show remarkable consistency. It is incredable that estimates show HP4 just a few hundred thousand less than the originals' opening. The Harry Potter franchise will likely be the most successful one of this first decade of the 21st century. Internationally, the figures look very promising as well. To have 5 out of the 8 biggest openings ever in a huge feat for any studio, and to have one franchise contribute 4 of them is all the more staggering. I went with a $98 m prediction for Potter, and it would be great to see actuals above $100 m. I don't see it benefitting to HP1 or HP2's extent from holiday moviegoers, as it is much darker than what I see as repeatable family holiday going fare. It will I believe surpass both HP2 and HP3, which is fantastic, but it's multiplier there is a small chance could be lower than Azkaban's.
It is also great to see its average go up 8%, with a 3% hike in ticket prices, and only 3 additional theaters from last year. WB knew they had a monster on their hands, and could ahve very well put this in over 4000, but I actually did quite appreciate their semi restraint in doing so. HP1 opened in 3672, HP2 in 3682, HP3 in 3855, and HP4 in 3858. If it was DW, HP would have been playing in who knows how many 4000 + theaters this weekend. Harry Potter has time and time again, reinvorgorated box office interest. It will be quite interesting to look back and see how HP5, 6, and 7 do when they eventually come out. But it is quite clear, especially accentuated by Sith, and HP4's openings, that moviegoers are still around, but have just smarted up to the usual drivel that is released.
Overall, it is fantastic to see the weekend strong, but quite disappointing just how much the studios completely avoided HP's path before and after its release with smaller films. Next weekend's slate is quite weak, and the weekend after, with Aeon Flux, should be a very, very weak frame. HP4 could do what no film since HP1 has, and spend 3 weeks at #1, and also 2 consecutive weeks at #1 (HP2's were non consecutive). Believe it or not, no film ALL year, has spent 3 weeks at #1, and 7 I believe have spent 2 weeks there. It would be fantastic to have HP top it for that long, and a testament to the strength of the franchise.
Lastly, fantastic to see a monthly record topple after standing for 4 years. HP1's opening was for a short time the biggest opening weekend ever, and it really is fascinating for box office watchers to see how much times have changed since Harry Potter's original opening (looking at 2005's box office, not necessarily for the better). It has been a year and a half since any monthly record was broken (HP3 and the June record). It was also the 2nd biggest weekend of the year behind Memorial Day weekend, something that the weak 2005 box office really did need. November has now for quite some time been the strongest month outside of the summer, but the Harry Potter films have really helped to push up its profile. Only 5 of the top 20 weekends ever have come outside the summer months, with 2 being HP2 and HP4's weekends, 2 were led by LOTR 2 and LOTR 3 (the other for those curious was led by The Grinch). With HP1 being the first film ever to open to over $65 m outside of the summer season, let alone $90 m, HP4 becomes the first film ever to open to $100 m outside of the summer months. Also, 2 of the historically weak weekends of June were also pushed up immensely with Harry Potter 3's help, with the post Memorial weekend only once having its top 12 surpass $125 m, with Finding Nemo in 2003.
The franchise's box office accomplishments are staggering. The Harry Potter films have continued the massive box office push that the LOTR/HP combo has brought since 2001, and should carry it on for the rest of the decade.
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