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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 38018
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 Nov. 25-27(Thanksgiving) predictions I don't know anything about American Thanksgiving, I assume its a 5 day right? Anyways...
Yours, Mine, and Ours- 11.2 mil/13.9 mil
Just Friends- 16.8 mil/23.1 mil
Rent- 11.1 mil/15.9 mil
The Ice Harvest-6.6 mil/8.9 mil
In the Mix-2.5 mil/3.8 mil
Pride and Prejudice-5.6/7.8
Syriana- $87,500 (17,500 PTA)
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
Last edited by Shack on Sun Nov 20, 2005 3:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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| Sat Nov 19, 2005 6:55 pm |
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Chris
life begins now
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:09 pm
Posts: 6480
Location: Columbus, Ohio
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I'm not sure how the box office counts it, but most schools are out the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, so I would consider it a 5-day weekend.
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| Sat Nov 19, 2005 6:57 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Yeah, it's 5-day weekend, and we have 6 new wide releases, counting Pride & Prejudice. Going to be some week.
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| Sat Nov 19, 2005 7:08 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Hehe after years of predicting you should know folks that it is, indeed, 5 days. 
I am still very lost on Ice Harvest, so I'll skip it for now.
5-day predictions:
Rent - $22 million
Just Friends - $17 million
Mine, Yours and Ours - $16.5 million
In The Mix - $4.4 million
3-day for the holdovers:
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $57 million
Walk the Line - $18 million
Pride and Prejudice - $5 million _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Nov 19, 2005 7:11 pm |
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Spidey
Teenage Dream
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:13 pm
Posts: 10677
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1. Harry Potter 4
2. Yours, Mine & Ours
3. Walk the Line
4. Rent
5. Just Friends
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| Sat Nov 19, 2005 8:14 pm |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm
Posts: 6228
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I hope RENT ends with a very solid total.
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| Sat Nov 19, 2005 8:30 pm |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
Posts: 19747
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5 Day totals (Openers only):
Rent - 18 million
Yours, Mine, and Ours - 16 million
Just Friends - 15 million
Ice Harvest - 8 million
In the Mix - 7.5 million
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:54 am |
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zennier
htm
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:38 pm
Posts: 10316
Location: berkeley
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Potter is going to own the whole holiday so bad...
Chaaaa-ching.
Other than that, looks rather pedestrian this year...
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:57 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25020
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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BJs Predictions:
Rent: 35m ( 5-Day)
Pride and Prejudice: 16m ( 5-day) (over 10m for the 3-day)
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 1:32 am |
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zennier
htm
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:38 pm
Posts: 10316
Location: berkeley
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BJ wrote: BJs Predictions:
Rent: 35m ( 5-Day)
Heh, if Phantom- one of the most popular plays ever - could barely muster that in it's whole domestic run, I really doubt Rent has any sort of chance. Look for The Producers to run away with what little market there seems to be for musicals....
Rent just looks... uninspired....
My expectations for it are much lower... I see a long weekend opening in the teens.
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 1:51 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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5-Day
Yours, Mine, and Ours - $16 million (hopefully much less)
Rent - $15 million
Just Friends - $14 million
The Ice Harvest - $12 million
In the Mix - $5 million
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 2:33 am |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm
Posts: 11838
Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Hehe after years of predicting you should know folks that it is, indeed, 5 days. Yes, but for the derby, you only predict the three day portion of the weekend. _________________Visit My Youtube Account and here is what you will see.    and many more.
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 2:33 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Mr. Scott wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Hehe after years of predicting you should know folks that it is, indeed, 5 days. Yes, but for the derby, you only predict the three day portion of the weekend. Not necessarily. 2004 we predicted the 3-day portion, but 2003 it's the 5-day, while 2002 it was 3-day, so maybe we'll get 5-day again. 
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 3:19 am |
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mary
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 4:35 am
Posts: 1255
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According to box office tracing, all wide-releases openers will bomb.
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 3:53 am |
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getluv
i break the rules, so i don't care
Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 4:28 pm
Posts: 20411
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5-day NEW
RENT 19M
JUST FRIENDS 14M
MINE, YOURS & OURS 9M
PRIDE & PREJUDICE 5.7M
IN THE MIX 4.5M
3-day Holdovers
HARRY 4 -57%
WALK THE LINE -26%
It's a good thing that the new releases were cheap.
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 4:09 am |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am
Posts: 11675
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I think you guys are majorly underestimating In the Mix. I think it'll open to about 12-15 million for the five day, and higher then Pride & Prejudice, Just Friends, The Ice Harvest, with an outside chance of also besting YMO and Rent for the biggest opening of the weekend (assuming those underperform, not that this breaks out in a huge way). You guys had been pretty good about not underestimating movies with a primarily black audience for awhile, I'm dissapointed in ya'll. 
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 6:23 am |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm
Posts: 6228
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mary wrote: According to box office tracing, all wide-releases openers will bomb. Show us the numbers then....
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 8:48 am |
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misterglass
Iron Man
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:56 pm
Posts: 678
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I think the order will be:
Harry Potter
Walk the Line
Chicken Little
and then everything else with Rent leading the way.
_________________
misterglass/NYC
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:11 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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MovieDude wrote: I think you guys are majorly underestimating In the Mix. I think it'll open to about 12-15 million for the five day, and higher then Pride & Prejudice, Just Friends, The Ice Harvest, with an outside chance of also besting YMO and Rent for the biggest opening of the weekend (assuming those underperform, not that this breaks out in a huge way). You guys had been pretty good about not underestimating movies with a primarily black audience for awhile, I'm dissapointed in ya'll. Well, it is still Lions Gate and reemmber how I said it is likely not to open in over 1,500 theatres? Looks like I was not too far away, at least with the estmiated theatre counts. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 11:05 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am
Posts: 15310
Location: Slumming at KJ
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Here is what the release schedule looks like at this point for the holiday weekend. HP4 and Walk the Line don't appear to have any breakouts to worry about.
November 23rd (Wednesday)
[table][row color=#FF0000][col color=#FF0000]Film Title[col color=#FF0000]Studio/Distributer[col color=#FF0000]Genre[col color=#FF0000]Rating[col color=#FF0000]Release
[row][col]The Ice Harvest[col]Focus Features[col]Comedy/Thriller[col]R[col]1400
[row][col]In the Mix [col]Lions Gate[col]Comedy[col]PG-13[col]1400+
[row][col]Just Friends[col]New Line[col]Romantic Comedy[col]PG-13[col]2000
[row][col]Yours, Mine and Ours[col]Paramount/MGM[col]Family Comedy[col]PG[col]3000+
[row][col]Rent[col]Sony/Revolution[col]Musical/Drama[col]PG-13[col]2100+
[row][col]Pride and Prejudice[col]Focus Features[col]Drama/Comedy[col]PG[col]1100+
[row][col]Syriana[col]Warner Bros.[col]Drama/Thriller[col]R[col]5
[/table]
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 11:17 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32104
Location: the last free city
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5-day predictions:
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $78 million
Walk the Line - $19 million
Chicken Little - $18 million
Mine, Yours and Ours - $17 million
Rent - $16 million
Just Friends - $15 million
Pride and Prejudice - $7 million
In The Mix - $6 million
Derailed - $5 million
_________________
Is it 2024 yet?
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 11:31 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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I have no idea about numbers, so I'll just rank the openers in the order that they'll be in:
1. Just Friends
2. Yours, Mine and Ours
3. Rent
4. Ice Harvest
5. Pride and Prejudice
6. In the Mix
HP4 will drop 45%, WTL about 10% (It'll be like a new release to many who saw HP4), and CL will stay level.
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 11:56 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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I think Walk the Line will rather drop 20-22% due to a lot of openers and the fact that Thanksgiving mostly helps family flicks.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:10 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25020
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Dr. Lecter wrote: I think Walk the Line will rather drop 20-22% due to a lot of openers and the fact that Thanksgiving mostly helps family flicks. 
Im calling a 15%-20% drop for Walk the Line  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:47 pm |
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Outatime
Veteran
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 9:00 pm
Posts: 3413
Location: South Florida
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Early 5-day predictions:
1. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $76.5m
2. Walk the Line - $20.3m
3. Yours, Mine and Ours - $18.0m
4. Rent - $17.8m
5. Just Friends - $15.9m
6. Chicken Little - $15.7m
7. The Ice Harvest - $10.6m
8. Pride and Prejudice - $6.4m
9. In the Mix - $5.3m
10. Derailed - $4.8m
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| Sun Nov 20, 2005 1:00 pm |
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