I didnt notice a prediction thread for this film so I decided to add it to my list of prediction threads this holiday season

BJs Prediction:

OPening Wknd: 25.64m

5-Day-Opening: 35.76m

Domestic Total: 180m

International Total: 165m

World Wide Total: 345m

Another break out film to add to BJs list of breakout films of the holiday season 2005

( post will be updated soon)

Well, I get to see a special screening of this on Monday.

Anyway my predictions are a bit lower:

Opening: $17.5 million (3-day)
$25.0 million (5-day)

Domestic Total: $80 million

sweet , hope to here what you thought of it

I'll have my review up on the main site either late Monday or early Tuesday.

Outstanding

3-day: 6m
5-day: 8m
Total: 16m

The ads show no potential IMO. I don't think it will have an audience.

I think I'll kill myself if I hear that Rent song again.

Opening Weekend: $12 million / $16 million
Total Gross: $46 million

According to Jeffrey Wells, this movie isn't tracking well.

You've got to be kidding me. One of the film's biggest audiences is going to be the college age and young adult demographics.

Trust me, this is getting a lot of buzz, and I don't live or work in a large city.

Anything less then The Phantom of the Opera's domestic totals is almost inconcievable at this point, though because it is opening in many more theaters it should have a lower overall multiplier.

Its reviews won't be worse than Phantom's and Rentheads are obsessed with the musical.

This one probably won't be a big contender at the Oscars and that will hurt its potential, but it will play well with young audiences, unlike all other musicals that came out in the recent years and it will also make a spalsh in the gay/lesbian community.

My predictions:

Opening weekend (5-day) - $22.5 million

Total gross - $65-70 million

It seems like that could be applied to all of the Thanksgiving releases. Do people just not go to movies on that weekend because there always seem to be bombs released that weekend? Of course, it doesn't help that the weekend is always full of releases (5 this year).

It won't bomb, sadly most Chris Columbus films don't, but I highly doubt that it passes 60 million; it just looks very unattractive

Rent will rock compared to most of his other films

It does look odd (the clothes mainly) but musicals kind of look inherently odd because a crowd of people normally don't break out into song in unison in the middle of a busy street. Musicals are unnatural like that.

I know, but it just seems many will prefer The Producers over this, leaving it out in the cold.

Ummm...DP. The musical? Heard of it?

Heh.

I see between $40-50M total, although it could do more.

If anything I think The Producers will be the underperformer of the two. I don't see anything over $40 million for that, though due to the popularity of the show it could do marginally better.

Then again, musicals are on the rise again, slowly, it appears, so perhaps both will find their audiences.

For me, the real problem is that those movie can attract people to watch them in theaters,

If they are getting good reviews, many people will see them.... on DVD.

Yeah, that seems about right. In other words, a performance akin to 'The Phantom of the Opera', which grossed $51,225,796.

I really don't think musicals have much appeal beyond a specific urban audience. How will that take it all the way to 50m? Phantom is a much better known name overall, and I don't think the advertising will make this appeal much to older audiences.

I'm not sure if you understand the phenomenon behind the musical, there are like Rent junkies out there.

I didn't know that, but it doesn't change my mind. Would an everquest movie have big BO? It doesn't matter how much the hardcore fans want it as they only mean a couple million at most, it's the mainstream audience. Serenity?

The fanbase for Rent, which won quite a few Tonys and has been on Broadway a good eight or nine years, is arguably bigger than the show that spawned Serenity.

Serenity only managed 25mil though, that isnt exactly a good thing. Serenity didnt really have crossover appeal (thanks to the ads, the movie itself is gold, gold i tell you) and i dont see how Rent has any more crossover appeal than Serenity did. Rent, in my opinion, looks pretty awful (though i cant stand musicals, the fact that people are just singing about things for no reason has always annoyed the hell out of me). Plus Christopher Columbus isnt that great of a director and i dont see how he could take something as "good" as the source material was and make it into a "good" movie. the ads are also pretty crappy.

Impossible, but Libs and I actually agree on the issue. From all I knew the Rent fans are quite obsessive and considering most stars from the Boradway show are in the movie as well, they won't be turned off by it either.