http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

I'll leave Zing for the chart. Most films dropped from estimates except for P&P.

Hehe, unfortunately looks like my initial GNGL projection was correct

The actuals hurt my score a bit.


My Full Weekend Analysis is coming up incase anyone cares.

[table][row]1[col]Chicken Little[col]BV[col]$31,653,590 [col]-21.00%[col]3,658[col]4[col]$8,653 [col]$80,401,485 [col]-[row color=#FFFF99]2[col color=#FFFF99]Zathura[col color=#FFFF99]Sony[col color=#FFFF99]$13,427,872 [col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]3,223[col color=#FFFF99]2,687[col color=#FFFF99]$4,166 [col color=#FFFF99]$13,427,872 [col color=#FFFF99]$65 [row color=#FFFF99]3[col color=#FFFF99]Derailed[col color=#FFFF99]Wein.[col color=#FFFF99]$12,211,986 [col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]2,441[col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]$5,002 [col color=#FFFF99]$12,211,986 [col color=#FFFF99]$22 [row color=#FFFF99]4[col color=#FFFF99]Get Rich or Die Tryin'[col color=#FFFF99]Par.[col color=#FFFF99]$12,020,807 [col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]1,652[col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]$7,276 [col color=#FFFF99]$17,723,544 [col color=#FFFF99]$40 [row]5[col]Jarhead[col]Uni.[col]$11,738,160 [col]-57.70%[col]2,448[col]37[col]$4,795 [col]$46,539,505 [col]$72 [row]6[col]Saw II[col]Lions[col]$9,125,604 [col]-45.90%[col]2,949[col]-[col]$3,094 [col]$73,876,511 [col]$4 [row]7[col]The Legend of Zorro[col]Sony[col]$6,381,648 [col]-36.30%[col]3,053[col]-467[col]$2,090 [col]$39,270,385 [col]$75 [row]8[col]Prime[col]Uni.[col]$3,874,375 [col]-24.70%[col]1,781[col]-56[col]$2,175 [col]$18,918,950 [col]$22 [row]9[col]Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story[col]DW[col]$3,728,510 [col]-22.20%[col]2,735[col]118[col]$1,363 [col]$28,853,998 [col]$32 [row color=#FFFF99]10[col color=#FFFF99]Pride and Prejudice[col color=#FFFF99]Focus[col color=#FFFF99]$2,865,017 [col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]215[col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]$13,325 [col color=#FFFF99]$2,865,017 [col color=#FFFF99]-[row]11[col]Good Night, and Good Luck.[col]WIP[col]$2,501,496 [col]-18.40%[col]668[col]11[col]$3,744 [col]$14,489,880 [col]$7 [row]12[col]Shopgirl[col]BV[col]$1,802,032 [col]-28.50%[col]493[col]-[col]$3,655 [col]$6,118,672 [col]-[row]13[col]The Weather Man[col]Par.[col]$1,754,301 [col]-38.90%[col]1,250[col]-260[col]$1,403 [col]$11,377,751 [col]$22 [row]14[col]Flightplan[col]BV[col]$1,585,755 [col]-30.80%[col]1,041[col]-404[col]$1,523 [col]$86,650,911 [col]-[row]15[col]Capote[col]SPC[col]$1,190,112 [col]17.40%[col]264[col]81[col]$4,508 [col]$6,517,371 [col]$7 [row]16[col]Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit[col]DW[col]$959,813 [col]-54.30%[col]1,012[col]-1,266[col]$948 [col]$54,298,093 [col]-[row]17[col]North Country[col]WB[col]$933,009 [col]-56.70%[col]1,044[col]-1,167[col]$893 [col]$17,350,237 [col]$35 [row]18[col]The Fog[col]SonR[col]$823,143 [col]-58.20%[col]787[col]-882[col]$1,045 [col]$29,212,109 [col]$18 [row]19[col]Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang[col]WB[col]$785,842 [col]96.40%[col]169[col]89[col]$4,649 [col]$2,107,243 [col]$15 [row]20[col]Elizabethtown[col]Par.[col]$702,592 [col]-57.00%[col]730[col]-908[col]$962 [col]$26,360,270 [col]$45 [/table]

The openers dropped a lot from estimates.

I'm curious to see how Cinderella Man did; Wasn't it supposed to be "re-released" in LA/NY?

Isn't it being re-released this Friday? I saw a commercial for the re-release yesterday, and I thought it said this Friday, but I can't be entirely sure.

You're probably right I just got wind of it, not really being sure of the exact date

My Weekend Analysis



1. Chicken Little delivered the biggest surprise of the weekend. Despite having delivered an impressive $40 million opening last weekend, it still ended up as the holdover with the smallest drop in the Top 10 this weekend. This is good news for Disney for whom Chicken Little is the first CGI-animted feature they brought out to the marketplace without Pixar's involvement. Certainly, the success of this movie is by far not up to Pixar's heights, but it still means that the studio won't be lost on its own. Chicken Little also once again shows that review matter little to CGI family flicks, especially if those are released with enough marketing, good push by the studio and at the right time of the year. Last year Dreamworks' Shark Tale has proven the same theory which by now is already a fact. Chicken Little was probably also the movie that was aided the most by the Veteran Day Friday as its Friday gross was actually up from its last Friday gross. This, however, affected its internal weekend multiplier. Still, a weeked-to-weekend drop of merely 21% is nothing to complain about and from this point on it's already an assured success. At one point an article stated that Chicken Little needs to gross $200 million domestically to be considered a success. I consider this number far-fetched, but even if it isn't the total gross of this movie in the USA shouldn't fall behind this mark as far as many have expected prior to the movie's release. The fact that it is coming off an inflated weekend and facing Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire next weekend, will ensure a big third weekend drop, most likely in the 50-55% territory, but with Thanksgiving coming up and the December holiday period, it should still have pretty decent legs once Harry Potter is unleashed. At the moment, I see Chicken Little topping out with around $145-150 million, unless it will really be able to scew towards the youngest audiences which would let it survive Potter easier and therefore go even higher.


2. Coming in a distant second is the unofficial sequel to the Robin Williams-hit Jumanji - Zathura. Its opening has made it obvious already that the movie won't reach Jumanji's lofty heights of $100 million. The internal weekend multiplier has been terrible, especially for the movie of its genre, but that is mostly attributed to the inflated Friday (by Veteran Day). The WoM for this movie seems decent, but it simply suffers the fate of being squashed between the benemoths of Chicken Little and Harry Potter. As Zathura is scewing more towards a bit "older" audiences than Chicken Little, it should be even moreso affected by Harry Potter's arrival. I expect it to drop no less than 45-50% next weekend, most likely even more than that. Thanksgiving should give it a nice boost and then it should have decent legs thanks to the WoM, but movies like Mine, Yours and Ours, as well as Narnia will ultimately steal its thunder. Decent WoM and Thanksgiving should help to push its total gross to around $47 million when all is said and done. It won't be a big failure for the studio, but a certain disappointment nonetheless.


3. Derailed defied many expectations and actually will end up as a nice-sized success for the new Weinsteins studio considering its relatively small budget of just $22 million. Derailed goes on to prove that adult-oriented thrillers can succeed in the right marketplace and a decent amount of marketing, even if the reviews are horrendous (which they have been in Derailed's case with an RT score of under 20%). The fact that it is an adaptation of a fairly popular novel and stars Jennifer Aniston certainly didn't hurt either. Another example of a successful adult-oriented thriller with a prominent female lead is this fall's biggest success - Jodie Foster's Flightplan which total gross is already close to $90 million. That movie has shown that WoM among normal moviegoers and the reviews stand in not much relation from time to time. The absence of other adult-oriented flicks helped as well. Derailed is unlikely to have this kind of legs as its reviews are twice as bad as Flightplan's and it obviously doesn't star Jodie Foster. It should also be hit by the arrival of the heavy awards contender Walk the Line, the Johnny Cash biopic that should scew heavily towards older audiences. While not being in the thriller genre, it should still hurt Derailed. Nonetheless, the movie will end up as a hit one way or another and at the moment, I project a total gross of around $36 million.


4. Get Rich or Die Tryin' is an actual disappiintment this weekend. It is certainly not a failure as some like to put it in, but you can't come around calling this 50 Cent-starrer a disappointment. Back in 2002 the Eminem vehicle 8 Mile opened to an astonishing $50 million over the weekend in less than 2,500 theatres and finished with $116 million. Obviously the studio didn't expect the same sized-success with GRDT, but I think that they at least hoped for a half of 8 Mile's total gross. As it seems, the movie will be lucky to even make a third of it. That is particulary disappointing considering how popular 50 Cent's music actually is with millions and millions of albums sold and many Top 10 hits. Paramount is to blame for this, but only partially, for not giving the movie enough exposure. Then again, even with it, it wouldn't have gone much further as the die-hard fans will see it anyway. Like 8 Mile, this movie's legs should be quite short, especially considering it's supposedly not even a good movie, unlike 8 Mile which was generally perceived as a qualitative success. I expect it to drop 60+% next weekend and disappear from theatres soon after that. With $18 million in its bag after five days, it seems to be heading towards a total gross of $34 million, a far cry from Eminem's hit.


5. By far the worst hold in the entire Top 10 goes to Sam Mendes' Iraq war movie Jarhead. In the case of this movie mixed reviews actually translated to mixed WoM as well. It actually reminds me of The Village, just on a smaller scale, where the moviegoing audiences have been deceived by a misleading trailer and then reacted harshly leading to the movie's bad legs after a superb start. The opening of the movie that has managed to go beyond its original adult demographics to younger demographics has been amazing, but its first Saturday drop has indicated that this movie will be frontloaded as it scewed heavily towards young demographics. This, combined with mixed WoM and frustration over a misleading advertising campaign led to a 2nd weekend drop of over 55%. No one knows how much it would have dropped without the help of Veteran Day, but it is likely that the number would be around or over 60%. There is no indication that the legs of the movie will improve significantly later on in its run and unlike originally hoped, the movie won't be able to ride on an awards wave as its awards buzz pretty much died down considering the very mixed reviews and disappointing reactions. This is destined to become Sam Mendes' first movie not to cross $100 million. Nonetheless, it is still heading towards a decent gross and it will become the most successful war-themed movie in quite a while. However what seems surprising is that at its current pace it not only won't come close to Black Hawk Down's total gross, but will also fall short of We Were Soldiers' total (which was $78 million). As of now, I see Jarhead topping out with about $70 million.


6. Saw II is currently tracking even better than its predecessor. Now that is a horror movie with truly amazing WoM. Despite being released on a Halloween weekend, having opened to $30+ million and being a heavily anticipated sequel, it still manages to have very decent legs for its genre. The movie is less than $3 million away from the title of the biggest horror movie of the year (currently held by The Ring Two) and it should take it by Thursday or at latest on Friday. Unlike its predecessor, this sequel doesn't need to deal with another big horror holdover (The Grudge) and a horror opener (Seed of Chucky). Its legs should start slipping soon as it will start losing theatres pretty soon, but it still looks good for the spot as the biggest hit of the fall this year, challenging Flightplan for this title. Thanksgiving won't help this movie much, so it should have its normal legs from this point on. I expect it to leave the theatres with around $91 million in its pocket.


7. The Legend of Zorro continues its mediocre performance. The movie will certainly end up as a profitable investment for the studio as the overseas grosses for this movie are huge and it looks to finish with a worldwide total of over $170 million, but the domestic performance is certainly anything, but impressive. The original made around $94 million during its run while this sequel will make just over half of that one's gross. Veteran Day helped it, but that should make its next weekend's fall even harder combined with Potter's arrival. Thanksgiving will give it the needed boost to pass $50 million, but it won't go far beyond that. It's a decent gross, but nothing that people will remember. For a movie that opened in over 3,500 theatres that is actually somewhat disappointing. If it wasn't for Just like Heaven's disappointing box-office performance this one would end up as the lowest grossing movie that opened in over 3,500 theatres. What a sad year for records, eh? As it looks right now, The Legend of Zorro looks to finish with a $54 million total.


8. Prime continued its unexplainably impressive box-office run. It defied bad reviews, an opening with an unimpressive PTA and a low theatre count and delivered a very leggy performance so far, not dropping over 35% on each of its weekends. The only way to explain it is the massive lack of romcoms at the current marketplace. With the arrival of Walk the Line partially and finally Just Friends its lucky streak should end, but it will still end up with much much more than originally expected after its opening weekend. It will easily ourgross North Country and actually come very close to Elizabethtown's total that opened around $4 million better than Prime. Prime is heading towards a $28 million total and a multiplier of almost 4.5. Incredible!


9. Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story had the second-best hold in the Top 10 declining by only 22.2% after it added another 118 theatres. Being a movie that is more targeted at young girls, it shouldn't be hit as hard next weekend as other family releases while Thanksgiving should still give it a decent-sized boost. Still I can't help, but feel that the release of this movie has been mishandled by the studio which should have released it much wider in first place. Just like in the previous weeks I project a total gross of $38 million.


10. Pride and Prejudice opened in just 215 theatres and yet broke into the Top 10. The adaptation of a popular Jane Austen novel averaged over $13,000 per theatre and with award buzz just starting for this movie and its lead, Keira Knightley we can look at a healthy box-office run. However, the fact that Focus Features messes up the release patterns of pretty much all movies they ever release, I can't help, but expect the same here. Therefore I expect a total gross of around $28-30 million. Counting in overseas grosses, this movie will still end up as a big hit.


11. Good Night, and Good Luck is what I call a missed opportunity. After a superb result from an expansion last week, I expected the studio to expand it this weekend once again. They did, but just by 11 theatres. Next weekend an expansion to over 850 theatres is planned, but I feel that it comes a tad late than it should have. The good WoM and awards buzz should still help it to a very healthy total gross of about $30-35 million.


12. Even moreso a missed opportunity last weekend was the Steve Martin/Claire Danes adaptation Shopgirl. It opened to very avergae reviews and therefore has pretty much no chance to enjoy award bizz later on in its run. It expanded very successfully last week and I expected at least another 100-200 theatres the weekend after it, but it didn't happened. Looking at Prime's hold, Pride and Prejudice's opening as well as at Shopgirl's hold it becomes obvious that people need a romcom right now. It was a perfect time to expand it and yet they missed this opportunity and will expand it to roughly 650 theatres next weekend, against Walk the Line. Not a very smart idea if you ask me. Still, it should finish with a decent $16-19 million.


13. The Weather Man is already a lost cause. The studio successfully dumped this movie as it didn't continue Gore Verbinski's lucky streak of megahits. Look for a total of $14-15 million. Pretty decent legs considering its dismal opening, though.

14. Flightplan tries its hardest to defend its position as the biggest hit of the fall against Saw II, but Derailed's arrival certainly hurt it. As of now it seems to be heading towards a total gross of around $90 million. It should still be really close between it and Saw II. I believe that at the end noth will end up within no more than $1-2 million of each other.


15. Capote continues its smart expansion strategy. In its 7th week it can still average over $4,500 per theatre and the expansion will probably continue. This movie doesn't have heavy award buzz itself, but much like 2003's Monster, the buzz for the particula lead performance is huge and that is keeping the movie afloat. It is hard to say where it is heading right now, but it should make at the very least $12+ million in total which is already very good considering its production budget.


A special mentioning goes to Kiss Kiss Bang Bang which to general surprise expanded pretty successfully to another 89 theatres last weekend. While it more than doubled its theatre count, its PTA dropped by just les than 10%. I hope this is a sign that the WoM for this movie catches on as it really deserves it. If they keep expanding this movie to at least over 500 theatres, $10 million is not out of question.


_____________________________________________________________________________________


I would be happy for any feedback.

Great analysis, Lecter. Always a good read.

I was mocked for saying $35 million

Lecter, you should submit that for the main site.

Arsi said I should start next weekend not this one, but I like doing that anyway, so I posted it for the thread.

And thanks guys.

They're trying a similar release schedule for Kiss Kiss Bang Bang as they are Capote. And judging by how fabulous Capote is doing, it just might help.

Enjoyed your detailed analysis herr doktor...

i love reading these.