The point is, that you are still missing, is that the competition won't HELP it either. It's not going to magically pull all the people necessary to pull those kind of numbers. In fact, if you believe this is a serious-Oscar-aiming movie then the presences of at least two Oscar aiming films that weekend (including the hold overs) definately hurts it with older/adult audiences.

That is assuming we are talking about 3000 theaters.

Maximus, that double refried beans order was a big mistake.

But then again, 8 Mile has Santa Clause 2 on its back, a much bigger movie than all these combined. That eliminated all the family parents and lighter crowd.

PS



That is all I have to contribute to this discussion

We all agree that Get Rich and Chicken Little combined with Zathura is a much different audience. I'm not concerned with parents pulling away to see Get Rich. I think there is a little bleed around the edges for the 3 new openers (especially Derailed). I mean, fuck, I'm interested in 4 of the movies that come out that week. And Jarhead (which you also say will do well), Legend of Zorro, Stay, Doom, Saw II and The Weather Man.

I don't see a way for the continued success of Chicken Little, maybe Jarhead, Zorro, and all the Halloween thrillers, and then all of the sudden for Get Rich to summon 3000 theaters and make $50 million in a weekend. One weekend before Potter and Walk the Line. Not everything will be able to support the Box Offices that people claim, and I'm more willing to bet on the success of Jarhead, Chicken Little and Potter than I am on Get Rich.

I don't think people are going to be very adventureous and go into Get Rich.

It'll make more than the 10-11 mil Maverikk is shooting at though.

If we want to get into "reality" then we have to consider the fact that it will probably open on 1000 screens.

If that's the case then we need to start talking about Tupac: Ressurection numbers... maybe $6 million the first weekend? Tupac only opened on 800 screens and made $4 million.

Maverikk's prediction is actually at the extre high end of what it could make on 1000 screens.

If Get Rich opens on 3000 screens and does as well as the Tupac movie then that is $15 million. Maverikk's prediction is at the low end of what it could probably do on 3000 screens based on Tupac's number (which, I think is a completely logical comparison on many levels).

Maybe with 1000 now. He was acting like thats how much it would make with 2800 though, which is off.

EDIT-Nevermind.

That security deal is really gonna hurt it, I know it sure did hurt Tupac: Resurrection, Paramount was big on that movie with security aswell. I remember plenty of teens were unable to get into that one ( sure the 100th documentary on Tupac wasnt gonna do alot more then what it did, but think about Get Rich in a much larger scale and how many teen fans 50Cent has )

I do think even with 1000 screens it'll have a opening around 11m-13m probably, it'll be a very frontloaded movie.

Well not really, I mean Tupac was a documentary and the fans are pretty much sick of documentaries on Tupac, there is just so many of them, plus a documentary has alot less appeal then a crime/drama type flick, especially to the audience both movies are targeting. If it opens over 3000 screens, it should have a good 20m in the bank, or more.

I wouldn't disagree necessarily. 20ish million for 3000ish screens sounds about right. Maverikk's prediction is extremely low for 2800 theaters, but stranger things have happened this year.

I brought up Tupac because of the security angle and the theater counts. This film isn't going to have any legs however.

The plus side is that it probably didn't cost much to make, and 1000 screens is not a lot to distribute, so lower cost there. They will make a killing on the soundtrack album and subsequent DVD. The downside is that it is PARAMOUNT who, aside from their War of the Worlds explosion, hasn't really been able to develop and deliver many successful niche films in the last few years.

When did I ever make a prediction based off of 2800 theaters that this film was never going to get in the first place?

Well we were going off on how much it would've made if it would've been in expected 2800 or so, Zingaling said 'WTF! Its shot at 40 is toast' or something like that, then you said it wouldn't get close to that and that Walk the Line will beat it. I don't think you physically gave a prediction, but you were leaning towards it that much. Whateva.

I'm way too tired to say half the stuff I could - I will say that once I saw the first trailer I knew Get Rich or Die Tryin' wasn't going to be a huge hit, but I still don't think that it's going to make as little as we're talking about. Films open on 1,000 or so screens and heavily expand on Friday all the time. Taxi comes to mind as one, around 600 theaters Wednesday and Thursday, 3000 for the weekend. It made 600,000 in it's first two days, and 12 million for the weekend. If Get Rich or Die Tryin' opened on 1,000 screens Wednesday, then expanded to 2,500 or so Friday like I strongly believe it will, then I'd guess it makes about 10 million in it's first two days, and 25 million for the weekend. From there, it will fall like a rock to a total of 60 million at most. Now, keep in mind that this was changed to a Wednesday release several months beforehand, whereas Taxi was moved up to a Wednesday opening about three or four weeks before it opened, so awareness of the Wednesday opening will be considerably higher. You guys mentioned the competition with theaters, and you may have a point. They may have to wait until Friday to put it in many theaters, as by then a number of films from October will be dropping huge amount of screens.

My memory must really be failing me. Can you show me where I said that, because I honestly don't even remember being involved in such a conversation?

Well you've been repeatly bashing even the 20 mil+ opening predictions, and repeatly saying Walk the Line will destroy it.

You said that the reason it doesn't have a high theatre count, is that the studio realized it would do terribly. Then you say if it had any potential ever it would have a theatre count over 1000, and it doesn't so thats why the count is low.

Again, I'm at a loss. I don't believe I've really commented on this movie's box office much until today, and I don't recall repeatedly bashing anything. Maybe you have me confused with somebody else?

Edited.

And by the way:

Zingaling said- "As far as I'm concerned, there was nothing stopping it from making a great $80 million total."

and

Kypade said- "I just can't imagine the film failing if it were released in 2400 theaters."

Both you shut down, especially the former with comments of bias, and how you, a 36 year old, knows better than the actual demographic pointed at aka him.

If we want to get into "reality" we have to consider that in the end this will probably end up with a theatre count higher than 1,000.

Ah, November will be a fun month.

If you read the thread, Libs posted a post saying that this might open to 1000 theaters with heavy security detail similar to Tupac. If you took the time to go back and read, you will see that my own predictions based on 3000ish theaters is a bit higher, but nowhere near the astronomical number of some of the other people's predictions in this thread.

Hey guys, I mentioned to this to some of my friends to see what they thought about it, and they all thought that although it would be pretty easy to jump to the conclusion that they're worried about the young black audience that are fans of 50 Cent, it could just as well be the studio trying to make some noise about a film that has otherwise been surprisingly quiet thusfar. Controversy almost always sells, why not go ahead and try and make the security into some big issue that will give the film free press? That said, I don't think it'll work particularly well, but I really hope that a company like Paramount isn't just doing this because it's a lot of young black guys in a theater. Oh, and I think that Tupac is a rather poor comparison considering he had already been in multiple movies, and that was also a documentary, which I imagine would be a big turn off to many teenagers, if not now then at least at the time.

I disagree MovieDude, about the comparison to Tupac, only because I'm seeing the same arguments, advertising, etc. about Get Rich. It's odd to me, also it opened on almost the same weekend. We had this kind of conversation on Box Office Mojo. But I do personally believe it could swing a $9 million/$10 million weekend in 1000 theaters and as much as $23ish in more.

To me it really depends on the security. While that might attract a more "hardcore" edge, I'm not necessarily sure that is the element that Paramount should be shooting for. This trailer should be in front of bigger and more adult features. There's no reason the trailer could not have played in front of A History of Violence. I can't imagine that Jim Sheridan has made an extremely "thuggy" film.

I hope they aren't going to wait until the Halloween films and then pump this trailer in front of Saw and Doom and expect to get a monsterous opening.