Guys, I had an article written, but because of my stupid mofo brother (who cause a power surge), it got destroyed. I am too lazy to write another one. Sorry.

swamped at work so i won't have time to make a worthy prediction in the derby for this weekend...probably a good thing

WSEX lines:

Into the Blue - 10.0
Serenity - 11.0

Here is what I'm feeling:

1. I have Four Brother type of vibe toward Serenity; just like Four Brother, tracking number is mediocre but consensus and a few signs indicate that it can/will break out (yeah, I believe $8000 PTA is quite achieveable);
2. I have Lord of War type of vibe toward Into the Blue; just like Lord of War, it is tracking in the $10-12M range and will finish between $9 and 10M, IMO;
3. A History of Violence reminds me Mystic River's release; so similar it's scary, and as a result after some computation, I can't see Violence have a PTA higher than $6500;
4. As I mentioned, Oliver Twist reminds me of An Unfinished Life, and I see its PTA to be in the $2300-2700 range;
5. Greatest Game is the wild card for me, as it won't surprise me to see it gross anywhere between $1.5 and 3.5M.

I agree on the first one. I have a higher predicting number for it than the majority. Originally, I was going to go with over $17 million, but then opted for $15-15.5 million. Friday at least, will be pretty big.

Into the Blue, IMO, is really quite comparable to After the Sunset and partially to Blue Crush. Fun summer flicks that are released in late summer/or not summer at all. I sense a PTA of $4,000. After the Sunset, Torque and Blue Crush all had PTA's around that. I think $11-12 million is a safe guess.

Mystic River = History of Violece. I absolutely agree. Only that MR was a bit more mainstream, I figure that helped.

Oliver Twist is my wild card because apparently it is not getting much advertisement and therefore could go as low as $1 million actually. But Roman Polanski's name has got to have an effect and in the end, it is a kids film.

Greatest Game...the sneaks bombed, it has no stars, it is about golf, the reviews aren't great (will soon go rotten at RT, I suppose). I cannot see anything above $2,500 for the PTA.

I just don't feel it. For a movie with teen-oriented audience, not showing up at moviefone until today is not a good sign, and it has been weak on the online buzz lists as well.

Final predictions/Derby entries:
1. Serenity-17.1
2. Flightplan-14.6
3. Into the Blue-12.4
4. The Corpse Bride-11.7
5. A History of Violence-10.1
6. Just Like Heaven-6.0
7. Exorcism of Emily Rose-3.9
8. Roll Bounce-3.5
9. Greatest Game Ever Played-3.4
10. Oliver Twist-1.4

I wouldn't be surprised if Into the Blue gets over 15 though. Guys, Honey had a 6600 PTA. Blue Crush had 4750-ish, this has bigger stars, but worse reviews. But these are about on the same level as Honey, if you check on RT its not that bad. The percentage is low but they all have it at 'not completley bad', just on the rotten side of the middle. I put my guess at a cool 5030 or so for 14.0.

EDIT- I caved in and lowered Into the Blue. I saw Lecter mentioning Sunset, and that was rather low. 13.0 is my new prediction, may change by end of the night.

EDITx2-12.4. Final. Going to bed.

EDITx3-Decided to go higher on Serenity. Been hearing early big crowd responses. 17.1.

Yeah, I agree. Sony doesn't have much of a reason to give this one a big marketing push considering it's one of the leftovers they picked up from MGM, and they really haven't been trying all that hard. The TV ads being a jumbled mess between horror, thriller, and action/comedy won't help much either. On Serenity's part, I think that the Four Brothers comparison is actually quite good. A ton of people have asked to borrow Firefly, and the reviews have been excellent. A #1 opening in the vicinity of 16-19 million seems very reasonable. A History of Violence has actually gotten quite a lot of adverteising too, so I wouldn't be surprised if it did very well for itself this weekend. They probably could've opened this in 2,000+ theaters and gotten a good low to mid teens opening. As is, we'll see if it can survive despite being a lot less mainstream then expected.

Finally did my derby:
1. Firefly Movie 16.0
2. Flight Man 14.0
3. Blue Crush 2 13.5
4. Tim Curry's Corpse Grinders 12.0
5. A History of Peace 9.0
6. Ghost 2 6.0
7. The Exorcism of The Exorsist 4.5
8. Fore! The Movie! 4.0
9. Roller King 3.5
10. Twisted Oliver 2.5

hmm they all end with a .5 or a .0!

Final Derby Predicitions:

1- SERENITY 15.6
2- Flightplan 13.4
3- Into the Blue 11.5
4- Tim Burton's Corpse Bride 10.1
5- A History of Violence 8.5
6- Just Like Heaven 5.9
7- The Exorcism of Emily Rose 3.9
8- Roll Bounce 3.7
9- The Greatest Game Ever Played 2.2
10- Oliver Twist 1.9

Serenity - 15.7
Flight Plan - 13.5
Corpse Bride - 10.5
Into the Blue - 10
History of Violence - 7
Just Like Heaven - 5.7
Exorcism of Emily Rose - 3.7
Roll Bounce - 3.4
Greatest Game - 3
Oliver Twist - 1.5

aaah, i'm gonna cringe when I see Game and Oliver's Friday numbers, I just know it

Here are my final predictions.

Serenity - 16.2m (new) (Big fanbase, great buzz and reviews)
Flightplan - 13.8m (-44%) (Forgotten like drop)
Into the Blue - 11.5m (new) (Alba will draw in guys, but the title will turn them off).
Corpse Bride - 10.5m (-45%) (Midweek has not been holding well for this genre).
History of Violence - 6.9m (+1437%) (Like Mystic River, it should get 14% of last weekends PTA)
Just Like Heaven - 6.0m (-38%)
Exorcism of Emily Rose - 4.1m (-45%) (Both movies should stablize)
Roll Bounce - 3.0m (-60%) (Getting killed in the midweek, but the In Her Shoes sneaks will prevent this from dropping 70%)
Greatest Game Ever Played - 2.9m (new) (Lack of buzz, but it will bring families by default).
Oliver Twist - 2.1m (+3168%) (It should get 20% of last weekends PTA).

Top Ten Cume - 77.0m

Final Predictions
1. Serenity - $15 million
2. Flightplan - $14.1 million
3. The Corpse Bride - $10.6 million
4. Into the Blue - $10 million
5. A History of Violence - $7.3 million
6. Just Like Heaven - $6.2 million
7. The Exorcism of Emily Rose - $4.2 million
8. Roll Bounce - $3.9 million
9. The Greatest Game Ever Played - $3.5 million
10. Oliver Twist - $1.8 million

Serenity................15.2
Flightplan...............13.9
Corpse Bride..........10.4
Into the Blue...........9.8
A History of Violence7.1
Just Like Heaven........6
Exorcism of Emily....3.9
Roll Bounce.............3.4
Greatest Game .......2.8
Oliver Twist.............1.7

Derby predictions...

1. Flightplan $15.0m
2. Serenity $12.4m
3. Tim Burton's Corpse Bride $10.0m
4. Into the Blue $10.0m
5. A History of Violence $7.2m
6. Just Like Heaven $6.0m
7. The Exorcism of Emily Rose $4.2m
8. Roll Bounce $3.2m
9. Oliver Twist $2.8m
10. The Greatest Game Ever Played $1.9m

I don't get all the comparisons with 'After the Sunset' regarding 'Into the Blue.' Whereas 'After the Sunset' had an older, more adult-oriented cast, this one has a young. "hip" cast that all by itself should guarantee a larger opening. At least Alba will definitely help.

I took a chance on some this week...

1. Flightplan $14.5
2. Serenity $11
3. Tim Burton's Corpse Bride $10.2
4. Into the Blue $10
5. A History of Violence $6.6
6. Just Like Heaven $5.5
7. The Exorcism of Emily Rose $4.0
8. The Greatest Game Ever Played $3.4
9. Roll Bounce $3.0
10. Oliver Twist $1.2

Final Predictions:

1. Serenity - $17 million
2. Flightplan - $14.0 million
3. Into the Blue - $10.5 million
4. The Corpse Bride - $10.0 million
5. A History of Violence - $7.3 million
6. Just Like Heaven - $5.8 million
7. The Exorcism of Emily Rose - $4.0 million
8. Roll Bounce - $3.4 million
-. The Greatest Game Ever Played - $2.0 million
-. Oliver Twist - $2.0 million

That's funny because a lot of reviews make it sound like it will appeal to both art house audiences and mainstream ones.

"It should delight mainstream audiences who prefer their action pictures to have some depth of character, several twists in the plot and a satisfying conclusion."
-- Ray Bennett, HOLLYWOOD REPORTER

"It is an assured, potent statement from an auteur who isn't afraid to pack deep thoughts into a movie made for a wide audience."
-- Peter Howell, TORONTO STAR

"[Cronenberg] brings his fascination with our dark side into the mainstream, helped immeasurably by a remarkably tight ensemble of talented actors."
-- Lori Hoffman, ATLANTIC CITY WEEKLY

"It’s possible to imagine the film playing as an action crowd-pleaser to a mainstream genre audience that may not be a bit perturbed by (or even aware of) Cronenberg’s stealthy unraveling of the threads of this American life."
-- Scott Foundas, L.A. WEEKLY


Anyway, with the AMAZING reviews, I'm sure even with some people hating it the movie will still have good legs and won't crash and burn, especially if it is attracting awards buzz. The title and reviews will definitely attract people. I've heard THE CONSTANT GARDENER is a major bore from people that aren't even that mainstream and yet that has had solid legs. A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE will have even better ones. Around this time of year a lot of non-mainstream movies end up doing really well because of amazing reviews and awards buzz, even if a lot of the more mainstream audiences hated them.

It's not an action movie, though, until the slightly ridiculous and over-the-top third act. It's a slow burn for an hour, with random (and very violent) acts of violence sprinkled in. Still, it's worth it to see Viggo Mortensen and Maria Bello 69 each other

God, I am such a pervert.

Hopefully I like it. I plan on seeing it sometime in theaters.

Oh, and some other non-mainstream movies that managed to do pretty decent at the Box Office due to awards buzz/noms/wins are In The Bedroom ($35,930,604) and The Hours ($41,675,994), two of which I found very disappointing and didn't like. I couldn't see any mainstream person seeing The Hours and not thinking it sucked. I'm not even mainstream and I didn't like it. A History of Violence seems more mainstream than those two and should definitely make more at the Box Office. It's lucky it's coming out now and didn't earlier in the year unless it would have stayed in limited release and slowly expanded until going wider in the fall or something. Had it went wide earlier in the year I think the WOM would have hurt it much more than it will now.

Brandons Forcast (up a little early huh? )
1
Serenity
(2,188 theaters)
15.0
15.0 / 1

2
Flightplan

13.5
44.5 / 2

3
Into the Blue
(2,789 theaters)
11.3
11.3 / 1

4
The Corpse Bride

10.0
33.1 / 3

5
A History of Violence
(1,340 theaters)
6.9
7.6 / 2

6
Just Like Heaven

5.4
37.6 / 2

7
The Exorcism of Emily Rose

4.0
68.1 / 4

8
Roll Bounce

3.6
12.3 / 1

9
The Greatest Game Ever Played
(1,014 theaters)
3.2
3.2 / 1

-
Oliver Twist
(779 theaters)
1.9
2.0 / 2

Brandon's predictions look exactly like Scott's. Pretty similar to mine too, especially holdovers. Greatest Game will decide between us.

His predictions look strikingly similar too mine. Did he cheat.