So to counter the 4-page discussion on whether JLH can break the record, I think there might be another contender riling in the packs. Corpse Bride. The anticipation where I'm living is getting pretty huge I must say, and every time the trailer comes on people gasp. Now at the begininning I said it would do good, but now theres yet another twist. The reviews are excellent. Like every review thus far extremely positive. Travers, Emanuel Levy, it looks great. I think it can beat the SHA 35 million, it has a chance indeed.

No

Just no

Why not?

I mean the September audiences are out and about displayed by Excorsism, it won't need the kids audience granted it'll get a bit from there, it can rely heavily on its own. They've got their draw power in the swarming Burton/Depp fans. And what may help them the most: The Nightmare Before Christmas connection. This isn't just any gothic animation, its a follow-up to THE most cherished and culted movie of any movie ever made, minus like Clockwork Orange. Every one of these DVD obsessors in areas with theatres are guaranteed to see it. Every single one. They love it that much. Some will probably go multiple times in the same weekend.

And adding to that is the fact that its actually going to be good. The early word and reviews as mentioned are fantastic. I see no reason why this can't break out. It should be able to do at least half of most Pixar movie's opening, if not more than that. The prime audience, teenagers, are breaking out for this. Of course theres still kids, and with it being good they'll be adults in there without children too to see a good flick.

Care to elaborate?

Sometimes I think things are too obvious to elaborate.

But look at this trailer. Yes, it will attract the fanbase of Nightmare before Christmas. Yes, it will attract some kids. But it needs around $36 million to break the record. That is what Robots opened to earlier this year. This probably won't open as superwide as Robots, neither does it look as appealing to masses (too dark and weirdly animated). It also is not as heavily advertised. And it's not a big studio CGI flick. The good reviews will help the legs, but the opening will rely on the built-in fanbase the most. Anything above $32 million would shock me.

The way its not a big studio animation, the stop-motion wonder, it'll help it most likely. And I think it has been actually pretty heavily advertised, with two weeks to go until opening still. With the reviews they've worked a way to the advantage with that too. Its playing in like 7-8 theatres this weekend. By next week if it really is quite something then it'll be well-known, and the praises from critics and audience members can be used in some ads. I'm saying it. The teen-crowd will jump all over this movie.

I think this is much more anticipated than Robots even. It'll be a much better movie, and it won't need kids. I think it can draw crowds as equally to a live-action flick. As long as it looks good they'll watch.

It's a more anticipated movie by filmfans like us and by fans of NBC, but the kids won't flock to this one.

I mean Sin City was about 1000 times more anticipated than Robots (I know about the R-rating, no need to remind me) and still didn't open to over $30 million. Anticipation in the real world and among film fans is a different thing. This one won't be huge in the opening.

Possible, but at the moment I think it will not break the opening record.
However, it will gross 100 million, just like Wallace & Gromit. Stop motion animation rules!

Nailed it.

I'm actually with Shack on this one. Its going to open HUGE. Its getting promo here like Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Above the Nightmare crowd, the family friendly crowd, etc, Burton and Depp have really got a reputation and a roll going for them right now. It's going to carry over into this opening. Mark my words!

Kid : Mommy i want to go and see the Corpse movie
Mommy: WTF!? WHAT DID YOU JUST SAY
Kid: You know...the movie about corpseses?
Mommy: You will be going to see no such thing, it will give you horrible nightmares now go play house.

Not quite, but I'll go out on a limb and say it'll come close and make $34M.

Not really. I think Shack makes a good argument.

It should do anywhere from $25,000-$50,000 per theater this weekend. Next weekend depending on theater count it could easily top $20 million, but $30 million is almost out of the question.

Can Corpse Bride break the Sept. record? Yeah I said it.

No it will not.....not even JLH.

It's not mainstream enough to break the record.

I'm with Shack 100%.

You know, a lot of people underpredicted CatCF, and look how *that* did--and that one had very mixed reviews. Corpse Bride is going to be bringing in the same exact audience as CatCF, just minus a few of the kids (which, honestly, I only saw a lot of in the first couple audiences for CatCF; all other times it was teenagers I expected to see in Wedding Crashers). And CB is getting rave reviews across the board!

Plus, I have a very unscientific way of determining whether a movie will be: A) good enough to see and B) will do good at the box-office and/or awards shows...

This process I use is very simple: find out what my dad thinks. Honestly, EVERY movie in the past decade or so that he has shown a lot of interest in and liked after seeing has done extremely well and turned out to be a good movie. (it doesn't work the same with movies he *doesn't* like, though...)

When I mentioned Corpse Bride to him, he got a look of disgust on his face (I can't really describe; people who know him know "that look"). Then just minutes later, the trailer for CB came on. At the end of it, he leaned over to me and told me it actually looked really, really good!!! You guys don't know my father, but you've gotta believe me when I say that my dad being interested in a movie like Corpse Bride (marrying the dead, etc.) is a MAJOR deal.

I'm really thinking CB is going to be yet another Burton/August/Elfman/Depp movie that's going to surprise the masses... in a good way, of course. A very good way.

Joy

hehe... I'm printing and framing this.

Are you sure your Johnny Depp infatuation isn't at work here?

Of course, Charlie did not get mixed reviews. They were pretty positive in general.

Yeah, if 82% is "pretty mixed" then I'm Wayne Brady. That said, I could see it really breaking out and surprising a lot of people, hell in theory it COULD break that record, but I doubt it. Nonetheless, I do think it'll reach 100 million and handily outgross Wallace & Gromitt.

I'm starting to think this has a small chance of taking #1 next weekend ahead of Flight Plan. This seem to have more mainstream anticipation from teenagers/people in their early twenties than I had originally anticipated. While waiting in line today to get free preview screening for next Thursday, I noticed that the long line had more females than males, and the Johnny Depp star power seems to pull in the female demographic a lot more in this sort-of romance movie, something that Secret Window and Once Upon a Time in Mexico didn't offer.

I'm betting it'll be Corpse Bride too. The theatre counts will be mighty close to each other. No reason why it can't.