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 Weekend Estimates 
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Sbil

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
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Location: Arlington, VA
Post Weekend Estimates
1 THE INCREDIBLES $70,678,000 NEW $70,678,000
2 RAY $13,805,000 -31.1% $39,802,000
3 THE GRUDGE $13,500,000 -38.1% $89,580,000
4 SAW $11,400,000 -37.6% $35,701,000
5 ALFIE $6,500,000 NEW $6,500,000
6 SHALL WE DANCE $5,650,000 -10.1% $42,130,000
7 SHARK TALE $4,600,000 -38.7% $154,076,000
8 FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS $2,996,000 -26.7% $57,278,000
9 LADDER 49 $2,625,000 -19.4% $69,932,000
10 TEAM AMERICA: WORLD POLICE $1,855,000 -39.8% $30,456,000


Last edited by Libs on Sun Nov 07, 2004 6:08 pm, edited 4 times in total.



Sun Nov 07, 2004 11:58 am
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Extraordinary
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That's great for The Incredibles, beat Nemo's first weekend. (I wonder if actuals will be lower or higher...) I hope it passes 300 million, fantastic movie. :D


Last edited by publicenemy#1 on Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:05 pm
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I have to say I am rather dissapointed with the estimated numbers. I was expecting more in the range of $80+ million. Still good, but just not as good as I thought it could be.

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Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:11 pm
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College Boy Z

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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I knew that $80 million wouldn't happen. That would require a huge increase, and Friday also included the midnight shows from Thursday night, so it couldn't increase THAT much on Saturday. But, it's an excellent number.


Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:27 pm
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Sbil

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Wow. Shall We Dance down just 10%. That's a smaller drop than anything The Notebook had, surprisingly. Look for it to finish in the area of $60M, which is about twice as much as I had originally expected it to make.


Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:30 pm
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Indiana Jones IV

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sigh..ladder 49 drops 700 screens and still only drops 19%...bye bye derby


Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:35 pm
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College Boy T

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm
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Why the hell won't the film die? Ladder 49 sucked, anyways.

Still a fairly good Saturday increase that'll bode well for the legs. It, sadly, won't pass $300m. $280-ish


Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:47 pm
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Indiana Jones IV
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rays number is definitley disappointing.

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Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:59 pm
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College Boy T

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm
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Yesh. Ray's number is vewy disappointing. But, because it's a bio-pic with good reviews praising Foxx, it won't die for a while. The multiplier might not be great (because of the opening), but it'll stick around.

Suprised with FNL, too. The PTA drop must have been very teeny.


Sun Nov 07, 2004 1:07 pm
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Indiana Jones IV
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ha! i predicted 70.5 for incredibles sweeeeet

and wow for shall we dance....still making 5+ million this far in its run..no one would ever thought of that

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Sun Nov 07, 2004 1:08 pm
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BOM has Sunday making $0.1 million more than Friday for The Incredibles. Would anybody like to research if Sunday numbers are usually a bit lower, about the same, or a lot higher than Friday numbers for movies that are comparable to The Incredibles?

Very decent drop for Ray, considering the frontloadedness of this type of film (i.e. Ali making $10 million opening day and then dropping off quickly).

Saw has only a 37.6% drop? That is sooo great, this movie is one of the best in recent years and deserves its excellent WOM. Hopefully it will have legs as strong as 28 Days Later.

The Grudge drop isn't out yet but I bet it will be exceptional.

Shall We Dance had actually not that good a Friday-Saturday increase last weekend so Finding Neverland sneaks actually probably deflated its numbers last weekend causing the extremely good drop. Last weekend an afternoon Shall We Dance showing was more than 90% full while the evening Finding Neverland sneak was only about 60% full.

Surviving Christmas's PTA drops only around 3% so it ain't that bad.


Sun Nov 07, 2004 1:22 pm
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College Boy Z

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Some more numbers...

The Incredibles $70,678,000 NEW $70,678,000
Ray $13,805,000 -31.1% $39,802,000
Saw $11,400,000 -37.6% $35,701,000
Shall We Dance $5,650,000 -10.1% $42,130,000
Shark Tale $4,600,000 -38.7% $154,076,000
Friday Night Lights $2,996,000 -26.7% $57,278,000
Ladder 49 $2,625,000 -19.4% $69,932,000
Surviving Christmas $1,300,000 -46.6% $10,305,000
Taxi $1,225,000 -41.8% $34,632,000
Birth $1,150,000 -32.6% $3,523,000
I Heart Huckabees $1,100,000 -35.5% $10,221,000
Sideways $1,065,000 163.2% $1,935,000


Regarding Saw's drop..... :shock:


Sun Nov 07, 2004 1:22 pm
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Extraordinary

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More numbers


Sun Nov 07, 2004 1:37 pm
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Extraordinary

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Great numbers all around. Ray is disappointing though with its PTA drop. Still a good overall gross for a biopic.


Sun Nov 07, 2004 1:40 pm
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Extraordinary

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Good for the Incredibles,Not as much as i expected but its still good.

The grudge is doing fantastic.

Ray did good numbers.

Saw had a real good drop.

Shall we dance is having incredible legs. :shock:


Sun Nov 07, 2004 1:43 pm
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College Boy Z

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I'm pleasently surprised with the horror movies. I expect 50%+ drops for both, and instead, they both drop under 40%. That's awesome. Anyone still think The Grudge can't pass $100 million? :wink:

Overall, some awesome drops this weekend for all movies. Perfect for the openers too, because I predicted $72 for Incredibles and $6.5 for Alfie. :D


Sun Nov 07, 2004 1:45 pm
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Insanely low drops. Is that right that they spent 60 million on Alfie, according to BOM?!


Sun Nov 07, 2004 1:48 pm
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THE GRUDGE $13,500,000 -38.1% Awesome!
This is the best movie of the year! :)

Amazing for SAW, 60% my ass!!! LMFAO to everyone who said so!


Sun Nov 07, 2004 1:49 pm
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I'm Batman

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Ray beat Grudge and Saw :D :D :D


Sun Nov 07, 2004 2:00 pm
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great numbers!!! speacially for Saw, it got a big TC increase!!!

good for The Incredibles too!


Sun Nov 07, 2004 2:20 pm
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Hot Fuss

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If memory serves I predicted 69.5 for the Incredibles. Yay. Everything else looks nice. I like the Incredibles number. I expect VERY good WOM


Sun Nov 07, 2004 2:30 pm
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Indiana Jones IV
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Good for the incredibles, but not anything great.

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Sun Nov 07, 2004 4:40 pm
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College Boy Z

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Wow. I think I should say this now. I've seen comments on how people are "dissapointed" with The Incredibles, or how it's "good". Since when has $70 million in 3 days become a dissapointment, that's what I want to know. Has the standard for movies gone so high that $20 million for a movie playing in 2 theaters just "good" because it's not $80 million? Because that's what it seems like. If you are dissapointed with the number for The Incredibles, your expectations were out of this world. I saw some $80+ predictions, and I knew that wouldn't happen. If you haven't noticed, movies that have got over $80 million were either big budget movies, HUGE names, or sequels to very popular movies. Incredibles stands on it's own, and all it had was the name of Pixar.

If anyone thinks The Incredibles is not great and it's dissapointing, they should be shot. Period.


Sun Nov 07, 2004 4:45 pm
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Zingaling wrote:
Wow. I think I should say this now. I've seen comments on how people are "dissapointed" with The Incredibles, or how it's "good". Since when has $70 million in 3 days become a dissapointment, that's what I want to know. Has the standard for movies gone so high that $20 million for a movie playing in 2 theaters just "good" because it's not $80 million? Because that's what it seems like. If you are dissapointed with the number for The Incredibles, your expectations were out of this world. I saw some $80+ predictions, and I knew that wouldn't happen. If you haven't noticed, movies that have got over $80 million were either big budget movies, HUGE names, or sequels to very popular movies. Incredibles stands on it's own, and all it had was the name of Pixar.

If anyone thinks The Incredibles is not great and it's dissapointing, they should be shot. Period.


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Sun Nov 07, 2004 5:01 pm
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Extraordinary
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Yeah 70mil is great, it beat out Finding Nemo by a little bit and its gonna get some great wom.


Sun Nov 07, 2004 5:04 pm
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