[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Transporter 2 [col] 15.3 [col] 19.7 [col] 77.66% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 16.1 [col] 16.5 [col] 97.58% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] The Constant Gardener [col] 8.8 [col] 10.2 [col] 86.27% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Red Eye [col] 8.7 [col] 10.1 [col] 86.14% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 10.5 [col] 8.5 [col] 76.47% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Four Brothers [col] 6.2 [col] 6.4 [col] 96.88% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 5.8 [col] 6.1 [col] 95.08% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 5.1 [col] 5.3 [col] 96.23% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Underclassman [col] 3.5 [col] 3.1 [col] 87.10% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] A Sound of Thunder [col] 1.7 [col] 1.1 [col] 45.45% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 84.49%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 74.12% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 91.39% [/table]

Underclassman is 3.1 in UC7 and I forgot to change that in the Derby. And I didn't think that a last minute change for A Sound of Thunder by .1 million would effect it by 20%. A was about to lower by .1 but instead I increase by .1.

Thanks.

I doubt I'll win, though. It'll either be neo_wolf pushing ahead of me, or some unknown taking the lead. It's close between me and neo, though.

neo_wolf: 92.05%
Zingaling: 92.18%

The Brothers Grimm, Underclassman, and/or A Sound of Thunder will likely decide it.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Transporter 2 [col] 17.6 [col] 19.7 [col] 89.34% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 16.1 [col] 16.5 [col] 97.58% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] The Constant Gardener [col] 8 [col] 10.2 [col] 78.43% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Red Eye [col] 9.7 [col] 10.1 [col] 96.04% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 9 [col] 8.5 [col] 94.12% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Four Brothers [col] 6.4 [col] 6.4 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 5.9 [col] 6.1 [col] 96.72% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 5.6 [col] 5.3 [col] 94.34% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Underclassman [col] 1.6 [col] 3.1 [col] 51.61% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] A Sound of Thunder [col] .9 [col] 1.1 [col] 81.82% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 88.00%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 75.30% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 96.47% [/table]

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Transporter 2 [col] 17.3 [col] 19.7 [col] 87.82% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 14.4 [col] 16.5 [col] 87.27% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] The Constant Gardener [col] 8.6 [col] 10.2 [col] 84.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Red Eye [col] 9.5 [col] 10.1 [col] 94.06% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 9.8 [col] 8.5 [col] 84.71% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Four Brothers [col] 6.7 [col] 6.4 [col] 95.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 6 [col] 6.1 [col] 98.36% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 5.2 [col] 5.3 [col] 98.11% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Underclassman [col] 2.7 [col] 3.1 [col] 87.10% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] A Sound of Thunder [col] 1.2 [col] 1.1 [col] 90.91% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 90.80%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 87.53% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 92.97% [/table]

too much for Wedding Crashers
4.5*1.28=5.76

With estimates:

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Transporter 2 [col] 17.3 [col] 20.3 [col] 85.22% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 14.4 [col] 16.6 [col] 86.75% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] The Constant Gardener [col] 8.6 [col] 10.8 [col] 79.63% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Red Eye [col] 9.5 [col] 9.3 [col] 97.85% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 9.8 [col] 7.9 [col] 75.95% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Four Brothers [col] 6.7 [col] 6.4 [col] 95.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 6 [col] 5.8 [col] 96.55% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 5.2 [col] 5.4 [col] 96.30% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Underclassman [col] 2.7 [col] 3.1 [col] 87.10% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] A Sound of Thunder [col] 1.2 [col] 1.2 [col] 100.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 90.07%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 87.99% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 91.45% [/table]

Would be nice if stays over 90% with actuals.

Rank Film Predicted Estimate Est. Accuracy
1 Transporter 2 19.0 20.3 93.60%
2 The 40 Year-Old Virgin 15.2 16.6 91.57%
3 The Constant Gardener 9.0 10.8 83.33%
4 Red Eye 8.8 9.3 94.62%
5 The Brothers Grimm 13.8 7.9 25.32%
6 Four Brothers 6.4 6.4 100.00%
7 Wedding Crashers 5.2 5.8 89.66%
8 March of the Penguins 5.0 5.4 92.59%
9 Underclassman 4.9 3.1 41.94%
10 A Sound of Thunder 1.1 1.2 91.67%

This would of been a great weekend had it not been for grim.

I stumbled quite a bit from projections. I have 90.28%.

Nebs is close behind. Let's hope he drops a good 10% with actuals.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Transporter 2 [col] 15.8 [col] 20.3 [col] 77.83% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 16 [col] 16.6 [col] 96.39% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] The Constant Gardener [col] 8.5 [col] 10.8 [col] 78.70% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Red Eye [col] 10.4 [col] 9.3 [col] 88.17% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 8.6 [col] 7.9 [col] 91.14% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Four Brothers [col] 6.1 [col] 6.4 [col] 95.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 7 [col] 5.8 [col] 79.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 6.6 [col] 5.4 [col] 77.78% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Underclassman [col] 2.5 [col] 3.1 [col] 80.65% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] A Sound of Thunder [col] 1.5 [col] 1.2 [col] 75.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 84.03%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 78.27% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 85.47% [/table]

STFU!

No, kthx.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Transporter 2 [col] 17.5 [col] 20.3 [col] 86.21% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 15.1 [col] 16.6 [col] 90.96% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] The Constant Gardener [col] 9.7 [col] 10.8 [col] 89.81% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Red Eye [col] 9.7 [col] 9.3 [col] 95.70% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 9.7 [col] 7.9 [col] 77.22% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Four Brothers [col] 7.2 [col] 6.4 [col] 87.50% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 6.4 [col] 5.8 [col] 89.66% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 5.3 [col] 5.4 [col] 98.15% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Underclassman [col] 1.9 [col] 3.5 [col] 54.29% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] A Sound of Thunder [col] 0.9 [col] 1.2 [col] 75.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 84.45%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 88.01% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 83.56% [/table]

I think Underclassman is higher, so I'm being pessimistic, maybe I can scratch 85

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Transporter 2 [col] 15.3 [col] 20.3 [col] 75.37% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 16.1 [col] 16.6 [col] 96.99% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] The Constant Gardener [col] 8.8 [col] 10.8 [col] 81.48% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Red Eye [col] 8.7 [col] 9.3 [col] 93.55% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 10.5 [col] 7.9 [col] 67.09% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Four Brothers [col] 6.2 [col] 6.4 [col] 96.88% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 5.8 [col] 5.8 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 5.1 [col] 5.4 [col] 94.44% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Underclassman [col] 3.5 [col] 3.1 [col] 87.10% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] A Sound of Thunder [col] 1.7 [col] 1.2 [col] 58.33% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 85.12%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 75.57% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 91.49% [/table]

A little higher than projection. Every increase A Sound of Thunder made is a benefit for me.

88.6%

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Transporter 2 [col] 15 [col] 20.3 [col] 73.89% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 15.9 [col] 16.6 [col] 95.78% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] The Constant Gardener [col] 8.9 [col] 10.8 [col] 82.41% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Red Eye [col] 9.6 [col] 9.3 [col] 96.77% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 9.4 [col] 7.9 [col] 81.01% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Four Brothers [col] 7.3 [col] 6.4 [col] 85.94% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 5.9 [col] 5.8 [col] 98.28% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 5.4 [col] 5.4 [col] 100.00% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Underclassman [col] 2.6 [col] 3.1 [col] 83.87% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] A Sound of Thunder [col] 1.8 [col] 1.2 [col] 50.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 84.80%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 72.54% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 92.96% [/table]

I hope so. Since everyone is under predicted this one and I over predicted it. I can afford it going higher.

It's interesting that I've been losing a lot of grounds to players outside the top 5 in the yearly race the past couple of weeks and able to keep the loss small to Scott, Jeff, and Micasey.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Transporter 2 [col] 17.3 [col] 20.1 [col] 86.07% [col] 0.85%[row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 14.4 [col] 16.5 [col] 87.27% [col] 0.53%[row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] The Constant Gardener [col] 8.6 [col] 11 [col] 78.18% [col] -1.45%[row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Red Eye [col] 9.5 [col] 9.4 [col] 98.94% [col] 1.09%[row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 9.8 [col] 9 [col] 91.11% [col] 15.16%[row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Four Brothers [col] 6.7 [col] 6.4 [col] 95.31% [col] 0.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 6 [col] 5.8 [col] 96.55% [col] 0.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 5.2 [col] 5.6 [col] 92.86% [col] -3.44%[row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Underclassman [col] 2.7 [col] 3.1 [col] 87.10% [col] 0.00% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] A Sound of Thunder [col] 1.2 [col] 1.2 [col] 100.00% [col] 0.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col] 91.34%[row color=#CCDDFF] Estimated [col] 90.07% [row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 87.84% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 93.67% [/table] Because of the different between the studio estimate and the actual number.
You've gain a 1.27% in your average.

91.67% with actuals.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Transporter 2 [col] 17.5 [col] 20.1 [col] 87.06% [col] 0.86%[row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 15.1 [col] 16.5 [col] 91.52% [col] 0.55%[row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] The Constant Gardener [col] 9.7 [col] 11 [col] 88.18% [col] -1.63%[row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Red Eye [col] 9.7 [col] 9.4 [col] 96.81% [col] 1.11%[row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 9.7 [col] 9 [col] 92.22% [col] 15.01%[row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Four Brothers [col] 7.2 [col] 6.4 [col] 87.50% [col] 0.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 6.4 [col] 5.8 [col] 89.66% [col] 0.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 5.3 [col] 5.6 [col] 94.64% [col] -3.51%[row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Underclassman [col] 1.9 [col] 3.1 [col] 61.29% [col] 13.79%[row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] A Sound of Thunder [col] 0.9 [col] 1.2 [col] 75.00% [col] 50.68%[/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col] 86.39%[row color=#CCDDFF] [/table]

Well I can't really complain, just gotta stay consistent

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/games/derb ... m?game=184

ARGH!

But congrats as well Zing!

And weta played with us.

I won by .01%, heh.

Congrats to Nebs for a good, but less impressive second place.

Congrats Zing!