Guys; Isn't it possible that this giant effect of Hurricane Katrina is going to see this Labour Day weekends buisness supressed?
I mean we have easily over 2 million people down in the Southern states with cinema being the last thing on their minds; many more displaced and basically, the entire southern states hooked to the news - hell even the rest of America is still staying on the news networks and following Katrina's wake if the news ratings have anything to go by. The public concentration is firmly on the hurricane right now and I feel that it may harm buisness come this weekend.

Dosen't anyone else think that the biggest natural disaster in US History is as good a reason as any to see box office slip a little?

I completely agree, I thought about that when I was predicting for the derby. I don't think we'll be seeing the increases we've seen in the past years. But of course the drops will be softer this time, mainly in the 3%-10% range.

it could help it as much as hurt it. People who get too depressed from watching CNN all day might want to go see a movie. Both 40 Year Old Virgin and Wedding Crashers will do fantastic this weekend. I could see 40YOV with a 10%+ increase and Wedding Crashers with a 25%+. Transporter 2 will still take the weekend, but not by much.

it depends on what percentage of southern people see the movies.

if they dont see movies on a regular basis as much as northerners, then it wont drop much.

vice versa if its true.

I think in general the situation with gas is really going to start eating into movie going more than the hurricane. I don't see the movies that are being released this week having a lot of interest to the movie going public in general.

Throughout this year I've been sparing myself going to to the theater. This is where I have made room in my budget for the increase in gas. I will buy 3 DVDs this year and will buy even fewer going forward to make up the extra money in my budget. I have made myself content with waiting 6 months for a DVD release then renting it from Netflix, which is much more affordable. I wonder how many people are like me?

I made a list of what I want to see in theatrs this year. It is:

Jarhead
Walk the Line
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
Narnia
King Kong
Munich

Nothing else unless I get a free pass. And I see a lot of movies! There was an article on MSNBC that polled people and said that Hollywood was worried that their bad situation for 2004 is only getting worse. I'm sure that the tentpole films, especially Potter, Narnia and King Kong will be pretty uneffected... as they offer a spectacle like Episode III did, but I think everything else is going to suffer.

Sounds like a very good list actually. If I had to narrow down my list of must-see movies to some certain ones, al of the ones you have mentioned would be on it as well.

There'll be an extra surge at the boxoffice from the rest of america wanting to forget the horrors in NO,Miss and Ala.

It should be balanced out by the folks who instead of spending their money at the B.O. this weekend, will in turn donate that extra cash to the relief effort. The only effect I see it having is down in New Orleans and other places where people will still be cleaning up and getting their lives back in order.

I don't think they will change much. Look at the midweek grosses. They haven't change alot (those Wednesday drops are normal at this time of year).

The gas effect will definitely be enormous, with record gas price highs this weekend. I expect most of the holdovers to have their biggest 3-day to 3-day % drop this weekend.

Well just look at the drops for Thursday, they are awful, especially for the kids flciks ( parents dont wanna take their kids to see movies with these awful gas prices )

The Katrina will definitely affect the theaters this weekend, but there still will be people out there going to movies to enjoy themselves. Except for New Orleans, and other cities that have been affected.

Local high school football will effect the Friday totals as well. I know around here its the first Friday where it's happening. Gonna be a bad weekend box office wise, the gas will really affect it IMO.

Tomorrow is the first game for our high school as well, which should have minimal effect, but it will a little. It'll make the Saturday increase bigger, though. As for Katrina, I don't think that'll affect any area outside of Mississippi, but the gas prices could a little bit.

Also, with school starting and all, the initiative to go to the movies during the weekdays is adjusting to the fall season now, so drops will be big on the weekdays, and the weekend will make up for it.

Orrrrrr like every year, school's go back into session this and next week, thus kids movies dropping so much harder.

Heh, that does NOT account for such large drops.

We've had people going back to school since August 4th.

Trust me. I was one of them.

I still cant help but laugh when Americans call their current gas prices awful. Kneejerk reaction.

But im still not sure of how much this will affect weekend grosses. Theres easily 5 million americans who will have 0 interest in seeing a movie this weekend, or arent able to.

A very small portion of the country started in early August. The majority either started this week or next week, right after Labor Day.

The small portion is what has caused the slightly bigger drops on Monday for the past few weeks, and after Labor Day, it'll come in full effect.

No he's right, every single person went back to school on a freakin Thursday. Obviously school is affecting kid movies, but not enough to make a movie drop 40% on a Thursday, kids dont start on a Thursday.

Oh yeah its so funny, I mean especially for us College students who have minimum wage jobs and have to worry about another thing like Gas prices getting higher and higer.

I kids movies have been having bad drops because schools are starting. A lot might have started yesterday!!

You try paying $45 for a tank of gas and then you can laugh at us Americans and our kneejerk reactions.

I know you were being sarcastic, but I start school on a Thursday every year

Huh, that's wierd. I have family allll over the country, they all started before this week. I'm just saying that it's silly to blame these drops on schools. Sure, lot's of kids went back today. But not "the majority"... actually, the majority has probably been back at school.

About a week ago, on average, people were paying about $30-40 for a full tank of gas. That's a week ago. Fast forward one week, and now, depending on car size, people are paying anywhere from $45-60 for a full tank of gas, and it's getting higher as the weekend continues.

I think Americans are reacting just like anyone would if, suddenly, we had to pay an additional $20-25 per visit to the local gas station and if many gas stations ran out of gas (especially the ones on the low end), forcing a lot to go to the expensive stations.