[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 15.1 [col] 17.4 [col] 86.78% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 15.9 [col] 13.9 [col] 85.61% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Red Eye [col] 9.4 [col] 8.7 [col] 91.95% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Four Brothers [col] 7.3 [col] 7.4 [col] 98.65% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 6.0 [col] 5.8 [col] 96.55% [row color=#ffCC66] 6 [col] The Cave [col] 5.9 [col] 5.8 [col] 98.28% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 5.7 [col] 5.5 [col] 96.36% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Skeleton Key [col] 4.0 [col] 4.3 [col] 93.02% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Valiant [col] 4.1 [col] 3.7 [col] 89.19% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Undiscovered [col] 1.8 [col] 1.6 [col] 87.50% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 92.39%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 90.85% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 93.05% [/table]

Woot woot! I knew I'd do good this week. Hopefully this holds.

http://www.boxofficefactor.com/calculate/Calculation.htm

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 13.8 [col] 17.4 [col] 79.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 14.9 [col] 13.9 [col] 92.81% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Red Eye [col] 8.6 [col] 8.7 [col] 98.85% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Four Brothers [col] 7.5 [col] 7.4 [col] 98.65% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 6.4 [col] 5.8 [col] 89.66% [row color=#ffCC66] 6 [col] The Cave [col] 5.2 [col] 5.8 [col] 89.66% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 6.3 [col] 5.5 [col] 85.45% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Skeleton Key [col] 4.1 [col] 4.3 [col] 95.35% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Valiant [col] 3.5 [col] 3.7 [col] 94.59% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Undiscovered [col] 2.1 [col] 1.6 [col] 68.75% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 89.31%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 79.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 93.62% [/table]

Booooo.

These are not projections, but Brandon Gray´s forecast! Sorry

Well I should still do good I think. The projection for Grimm is too high, Red Eye too low, both are going to end up closer to my guess.

Yesss!!!!!

That's great news

I love you.

!!

Nebs put some new ones in for BOF.

With Nebs projections:

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#CCDDFF] 1 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 15.9 [col] 15.8 [col] 99.37% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 15.1 [col] 15 [col] 99.33% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Red Eye [col] 9.4 [col] 10 [col] 94.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Four Brothers [col] 7.3 [col] 6.7 [col] 91.04% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 6.0 [col] 5.8 [col] 96.55% [row color=#ffCC66] 6 [col] The Cave [col] 5.9 [col] 4.7 [col] 74.47% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 5.7 [col] 4.4 [col] 70.45% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Skeleton Key [col] 4.0 [col] 4.1 [col] 97.56% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Valiant [col] 4.1 [col] 3.4 [col] 79.41% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Undiscovered [col] 1.8 [col] 1.6 [col] 87.50% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 88.97%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 87.10% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 89.77% [/table]

Darn. Still my highest ever but not quite exceptional.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#CCDDFF] 1 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 14.6 [col] 15.8 [col] 92.41% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 13.9 [col] 15 [col] 92.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Red Eye [col] 8.0 [col] 10 [col] 80.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Four Brothers [col] 7.2 [col] 6.7 [col] 92.54% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 5.4 [col] 5.8 [col] 93.10% [row color=#ffCC66] 6 [col] The Cave [col] 4.9 [col] 4.7 [col] 95.74% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 5.8 [col] 4.4 [col] 68.18% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Skeleton Key [col] 4.3 [col] 4.1 [col] 95.12% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Valiant [col] 3.8 [col] 3.4 [col] 88.24% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Undiscovered [col] 1.8 [col] 1.6 [col] 87.50% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 88.55%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 91.97% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 87.08% [/table]

Penguins...

Am I missing something? These projections, at least for the openers, are terrible. Only $15 million for the weekend for Brothers Grimm after a $5.8 million Friday?? Haha. Somebody is on crack. And The Cave at $4.7 million dollars after a $2 million friday? This is a little more plausible, but even if it fell 15% on saturday, it would still get at least $5 million over the weekend. The large saturday drops usually occur with (other than the really, really big frontloaded films that open huge on friday) the small films that have a certain topic fanbase, like the skateboarding films and stuff. The Cave seems likely to drop on saturday, but not big enough to match this projection, in my opinion. And then I haven't seen any Undiscovered numbers, so I don't see how this projection was formed.

PEACE, Mike.

They're not projections, they're the BOM forecast.

Yes, you're missing something...

The Brothers Grimm made $5.2 million on Friday; not $5.8 million. And, it says on the top of the page on the Calculate page that it's from the BOM forecast because we have no number for Undiscovered.

According to the friday numbers thread, and thus Nebs himself who made the thread, Grimm made $5.8 million. I was going off of that. If it actually made $5.2 million, sorry, but that is not what is indicated in the friday numbers thread or showbizdata, and Brandon does not have numbers up yet.

PEACE, Mike.

Apparently, SBD posted $5.8 million for the Friday number, but put the total gross at $5.2 million.

The-Numbers has it at $5.2 million, so I believe the projection was made off of that.

Ah, okay, thank you, that makes sense. But I trust The-Numbers by far the least. They are ridiculously bad when it comes to estimates, and even some of their numbers archived are out of date. But you're right, that makes sense. I wouldn't be surprised with anything, because Brandon's little note indicates there are problems with estimates in regards to accuracy.

PEACE, Mike.

Actually on BOF right now I believe its Nebs projections. A while ago it was the forecast which I got 92% from, and now Nebs are up, givng me 88%.

I was not on crack. I was on heroin.


And went with $5.2m for BG, $1.8m for Cave...and still a prediction for Undiscovered. All written there.

I personally found those projections incredibly accurate.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#CCDDFF] 1 [col] The 40 Year-Old Virgin [col] 15.7 [col] 15.8 [col] 99.37% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] The Brothers Grimm [col] 14.5 [col] 15 [col] 96.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Red Eye [col] 9.2 [col] 10 [col] 92.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Four Brothers [col] 7.5 [col] 6.7 [col] 88.06% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Wedding Crashers [col] 6.0 [col] 5.8 [col] 96.55% [row color=#ffCC66] 6 [col] The Cave [col] 8.5 [col] 4.7 [col] 19.15% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] March of the Penguins [col] 6.0 [col] 4.4 [col] 63.64% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Skeleton Key [col] 4.4 [col] 4.1 [col] 92.68% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Valiant [col] 4.1 [col] 3.4 [col] 79.41% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Undiscovered [col] 4.0 [col] 1.6 [col] 0.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col] 72.75%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 38.61% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 87.39% [/table]