Why is Transporter 2 supposed to do so well? The original seemed to have a lot more marketing and only opened to about $9M. Did it develop a cult following or something?

It made over $40 million in rentals, and I've seen a ton of commercials in the past few weeks. I doubt it'll top $15 million for the weekend, but I can't see anything below $10 million, either.

I've actually seen more marketing for this one, and it has much less competition then the first. It definitely got itself a cult following, so I wouldn't be surprised if the sequel had a decent but not great increase like say Resident Evil. However, that already had a lot of it's potential audience, so while that series went from 17 to 23 million, so I could see this going from 9 million to say 15 million.

Doubt the CAVE can break $10M this weekend....2,200 theatres!

I fully expect the actual theatre count for The Cave to break 2,500 at the very least. Anacondas got 2800 plus the same weekend last year.

Agreed, BOM always underestimates these, and judging by the fact it's in all the usual Portland, OR theaters I don't see why it'd have such a low count. It's not like there's a huge amount of competition.

Would Red-Eye had been better off opening this coming weekend rather than last weekend? It would have assuredly opened at number one instead of two and likely would have made about the same amount 15-16 million). Or was it's release date fine in the first place?

Heh if that is true, then many people on BOM's derby are going to risk a zero for one of the openers.

Undiscovered is number one on Moviefone.

August 26, 2005 // (Final) Top Ten Predictions.

01. THE BROTHERS GRIMM: $15.5 million
02. THE 40-YEAR-OLD VIRGIN: $14.1 million
03. RED EYE: $9.8 million
04. THE CAVE: $9.6 million
05. FOUR BROTHERS: $8.4 million
06. MARCH OF THE PENGUINS: $6.3 million
07. WEDDING CRASHERS: $6.0 million
08. VALIANT: $4.4 million
09. THE SKELETON KEY: $3.7 million
10. THE DUKES OF HAZZARD: $2.9 million

***UNDISCOVERED: $2.3 million***

Somewhat updated
The Brothers Grimm: $15 million
The Cave: $5 million
Undiscovered: $2.5 million

New:
Brothers Grimm-15.1
Cave-6.3
Undiscovered-1.9(no trailers whatsoever)

Box Office Report

I think these look about right for the weekend.

Not final, but updated predictions for the openers...

The Brothers Grimm: $15.4 million
The Cave: $7 million
Undiscovered: $2.5 million

Box Office Guru has The Brothers Grimm at 18 million, The Cave at 7 million, Undiscovered at 3 million. Those all seem reasonable (although I'm going with 9 million for The Cave...) but the one bit that weirds me out is the holdover predictions. They think The 40-Year Old Virgin will fall 45% to 12 million, Red Eye 50% to 8 million, and Four Brothers 35% to 8 million. While Four Brothers has been holding well, I really can't see the two big openers from last weekend falling that hard. I'm thinking Red Eye's will be closer to 40%, and 40-Year Old Virgin about 20% less then what they're predicting.

Yeah, I don't think either 40 or Red-Eye will fall that much. They have great WOM and not one of the new films really cut too much into their audience because the new films don't look all that appealing.

My Final Derby predictions.

1.40 year old virgin:14.3
2.The Brothers Grim:13.0
3.Red Eye 9.3
4.The Cave:8.1
5.Four Brothers:7.1
6.Wedding Crashers:5.9
7.March of the penguins:5.8
8.The Skeleton Key:4.2
9.Valiant:3.7
10.Undiscovered:2.8

I think those drops are too high, I put 40YOV at 15.9 or 16.0 or somewhere around there I forget, and Red Eye at 10.7, and Valiant at like 4.1.

Brothers Grimm- $15,000,000
The Cave- $6,000,000

Final predictions
1. The Brothers Grimm - $16.0 million
2. The 40-Year-Old Virgin - $14.4 million
3. Red Eye - $9.3 million
4. Four Brothers - $7.7 million
5. Wedding Crashers - $6.2 million
6. March of the Penguins - $6.1 million
7. The Cave - $5.8 million
8. The Skeleton Key - $4.5 million
9. Valiant - $3.9 million
10. The Dukes of Hazzard - $3.0 million

Undiscovered - $2.4 million

World Sports Exchange Lines:

The Brothers Grimm - $18.5
The Cave - $5.5

Final Predictions:

1. The 40 Year-Old Virgin - $14.5 million
2. The Brothers Grimm - $13.3 million
3. Four Brothers - $7.5 million
4. Red Eye - $7.5 million
5. March of the Penguins - $6.3 million
6. The Wedding Crashers - $5.4 million
7. The Cave - $5.1 million
8. The Skeleton Key - $4.3 million
9. Valiant - $3.5 million
10. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $2.9 million
11. The Dukes of Hazzard - $2.6 million
12. Undiscovered - $1.5 million

Still no moviefone for The Cave, very rare for a horror movie.