Nice opening for Dukes. Saw the movie last night and was actually FUN to watch.

I don't like all the bashing the South is getting for this (some Southerners actually live in houses, not trailer parks!) but I do think this particular movie will do much better there. It's just, remember guys, Yankees watch trashy movies too!

Yeah, DUKES will do best in Southern states, it's common knowledge .


MARCH OF THE PENGUINS did better than I expected. Wow! I'm really happy for it. Maybe it will be this year's MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING but instead MY BIG FAT BLACK AND WHITE PENGUINS and not quite so big.


Here is what I had predicted for DUKES:

Friday - 12.2 Million
Saturday - 14 Million
Sunday - 12 Million

Total - 38.2 Million


So yay, I'll be close.

WOW!!!

WC is unstoppable. Now I'm sure it will pass Charlie's final total. I expect Wedding Crashers total will be close to $220M.

No, WEDDING CRASHERS will end up with $602 million

Nice for The Dukes of Hazzard. It won't go up hardly any on Saturday, so it shouldn't reach $35 million.

Must Love Dogs is going to have a 42%+ drop like I had said. Most chick flick movies have this type of 2nd weekend anyway (even the Notebook), so it's not too bad.

And for once Charlie held up better than everyone thought!

The Dukes of Hazzard did very well. Looks like an opening around $33-35 million, and the total might end up just under $90 million because of the bad WOM (C+ at Yahoo!, 3.8/10 at IMDB).

Wedding Crashers, on the other hand, is doing fantastic. Despite having the biggest competition of its run, it had the best drop of its run so far. With the same multiplier as last weekend, it could mak $16.9 million, but it should end up with around $16.6 million. Just, wow.

Right on Zing, you see the light. I think Dukes will drop over 60% next week just like Avp and The Village did

I agree the grades do not bode well for the Dukes' run.

Anyway Dukes Smukes. Isn't this the lowest opening for a movie with over 3700 theaters?

WOW. Wedding Crashers just keeps on surprising me. This movie must have one of the strongest word-of-mouth of all time. $200m is still quite far away, but if it keeps dropping like this, it could in fact get there. It will, I think, pass Charlie's total in the end, regardless of passing $200m because I think Charlie now faces an uphill climb to $200m.

Dukes of Hazard did decent; not enough for $100m though. IT should round out the weekend with around $32-33 million.

Penguins did what most were expecting. But I was hoping for a huge surprise. Wishful thinking I guess! IT has $40m in the bag right now.

Wedding Crashers is a lock for $200 million total. The fact that it had the best drop of its run this weekend (in the face of competition), only guarantees that it'll make $200 million total.

It'll be a long road, of course, because it won't pass for atleast another five to six weekends. If it drops 25% every week for the rest of its run, it'll make around $225 million total.

I think it will act more like Be Cool though, which had a 57% 2nd weekend drop if I remember correctly. Be Cool suffered from bad WOM that was from it being not that funny. The Dukes of Hazzard will probably go that way since most of the reviews don't show laugh-a-minute fun.

Be Cool at least had a decent grade at yahoo and imdb. The grades at those sites are just really bad

I did pretty well in everything it seems [ charlie and wc excluded]

That won't make a huge difference, though. We're talking about the general public, not the internet moviegoing audience, which is why IMDB is not a good example. Yahoo! is better for the general public, and both have a C+ on it.

MG is right. The drop will be more in the 56-58% range.

I told everyone WC was going to have an amazing drop, sure I said it may be sub 10%, but by yesterday I raised that to sub 20%, which most people still didn't buy.

It looking like WC will drop about 15% this weekend. That is astounding, and I am incredibly happy that the funniest movie I have seen in years is doing so well.

Great for the comedies.

I don't think Wedding crashers is a lock for 200 just yet. School starts again in a month, and I don't think it will make it to 200 by that time. Even if it drops 25% for the rest of the summer, it would only be at about 185-190. So yes, it should make it, but it is by no means a guarantee.

If it drops 25% from week to week, it will get passed 200m easily

Yes, you are right. But I'm just saying that there is no guarnatee just yet. It could fall harder than that one week. I think it will get there also, in fact, I think it will soar past it....but it is not guaranteed.

Ya, it isn't a guarante, but even if it ends up with 170-180m, it will still be amazing.

I will never ever ever ever provide box office commentary again unless I do serious research, because that increases your chances of being right by a great deal. I expected 40+ million, and had I looked into it better, I may not have expected that much. I did the same thing with Bewitched, and guessed wrong.

Still a good opening, though.

Now here's an interesting fact: Despite having 11 other movies with bigger openings, Wedding Crashers is on track to have the biggest 4th weekend of the year.

That is amazing.

Here is another,

The first weekend to fourth weekend drop based on projections: 51%.

Considering the god awful competition ahead, Wedding Crashers should be able to make it to 200m BUT!!!!!! Movies do die out, one week it could just drop 50% or somethign because everyone who wanted to see it saw it already, it happens.