I think Just Like Heaven and Jarhead should both be moved up, quite a bit. Just Like Heaven has an interesting subject matter, a star who can carry a romantic comedy (in September), and Napoleon Dynamite. Jarhead has an interesting subject matter, a star who has done very well for himself (in Oscar-like roles, and Donnie Darko.

Yeah Just Like Heaven can do it. It could maybe undercut Sweet Home Alabama's run. Reese Witherspoon should be back in a big way, this and Walk the Line(oscar frontrunner?) could both be hits.

Updated:
Removed: Penguins (again), Grimm, Cave and Underclassmen (last 2 had no chance anyway)
I'm not sure what to do about 40yov
1. Hitch
2. Robots
3. The Pacifier
4. Star Wars: Episode III: The Revenge of the Sith
5. Madagascar
6. The Longest Yard
7. Mr. and Mrs. Smith
8. Batman Begins
9.War of the Worlds
10. Fantastic Four
11. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
12. Wedding Crashers


Locks:
Chronicals of Narnia: Lion Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Chicken Little
Harry Potter 4

90-99% (almost locks):
Fun With Dick and Jane

75-89% (good chance):
The Producers
Munich
Legend of Zorro

60-74%(decent chance):
Wallace and Grommit
V for Vendetta
Rumor has it
Get Rich or Die Tryin!

40-59% (so-so):
Walk the Line
Flight Plan
Memories of a Geisha
All the Kings Men
Cheaper by the Dozen 2
Yours Mines and Ours
The New World
Jarhead
Corpse Bride
Zathura
40 Year old Virgin

25-39% (probably not):
Doom
The Fog
Elizabethtown
Weather man
Family Stone
Rent
Syrinia
Just Like Heaven (up)

10-24% (don't count on it!):
Serenity
Greatest Game Ever Played

1-9% (SEIROUSLY DOUBT IT!):
Idiotacracy
Domino
Exorsism of Emily Rose
The Man
The Woods
Into the Blue

40 Year Old Virgin has to be a lock by now.

Yep, Virgin is pretty much a lock.

Penguins doesn't have much of shot now, but it could be a close call.

40 YOV and Fun With Dick and Jane are both locks. I would movie Chicken Little to the 90-99% category (I'm thinking about Treasure Planet here, it is possible). I would move Just Like Heaven up to the 60-74% category, and also bump Doom up to the 40-59% category. Otherwise those look pretty good.

I really want Penguins to get there. I'm thinking it will top out between 85-95M. It doesn't have any competition at all until Wallace and Gromit, so there is still a slight chance. If it can hang around until the holidays and re-expand then, it's chance would be even better.

I'll move virgin next time I update it.

and I'll wait to see the trailer for dick and jane first.

Locks:

40 Year-Old Virgin
Chicken Little
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
The Chronciles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Fun with Dick and Jane


I expect these to make it as well:

Rumor Has It (near-lock, IMO)
Munich
Memoirs of a Geisha


That should be about it, unless I'm forgetting something.

The Producers might be another one too if the marketing is done well, and it gets the same kind of reception as the Broadway show did.

Yes, that would be the next possible on my list. I still have to see a trailer, though.

Locks
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, & the Wardrobe
King Kong
Chicken Little
Fun with Dick and Jane

Good or Great Chance
Get Rich or Die Tryin'
Just Like Heaven
Doom
The Legend of Zorro
Jarhead
Zathura
Walk the Line
Cheaper by the Dozen 2
Rumor Has It
Munich

I think Doom has no chance whatsoever. It need to open to at least $40 million to make it. No way it's having better legs than Resident Evil: Apocalypse or Alien vs. Predator. And a $40 million opening weekend is really not within reach.

Get Rich or Die Tryin' will need a $50+ million 5-day weekend as well in order to make it to $100 million.

The Legend of Zorro has a good chance, but something's tell me it'll just fall short by $5-10 million.

Doom should have slightly better legs than Apocalypse and AVP because of Halloween weekend, which should prevent a harsh, 60% drop.

And, I fully expect Get Rich or Die Tryin' to make $50 million in 5 days, heh.

Ow, you'll be wrong!

Chicken Little ain't a lock. It has a huge amount of competition, and CGI just ain't the tentpole it used to be. Frankly, the movie has very, very little to sell itself on (PLEASE don't say "but Chicken Little is a classic story that everyone knows!". I'd hope that no one here is enough of a moron to actually think that nostalgia from when you were four is going to help anything.) compared to all the other family movies coming out in the following weeks, and a much more narrow demographic as well. Where Harry Potter and Zathura will both get adult and teen crossover, it's a fair bet that anyone over the age of 10 with an IQ above 75 won't exaclty be dying to see Chicken Little. Right now I'm going with 30/95, but it could go closer to 75 million.

CGI isn't a tentpole for $150+ million anymore and that is true, but it still attracts audiences well. Forget Valiant which barely had promotion. This one is Disney's tentpole, based on a known story and it is the first big kids flick of the fall. That alone should guarantee a $30+ million opening which you seem to be predicting and the legs surely will be better than that despite competition. Even Robots and Shark Tale had better legs than that. If it opens to $30+ million it WILL make $100 million. C'mon, it might drop badly facing Harry Potter (I don't think Zathura will be big and I think Chicken Little will rather hurt Zathura than otherwise), but there's the Thanksgiving weekend to rebound.

Updated:
Removed: Just Like Heaven, Emily Rose and the Man.
1. Hitch
2. Robots
3. The Pacifier
4. Star Wars: Episode III: The Revenge of the Sith
5. Madagascar
6. The Longest Yard
7. Mr. and Mrs. Smith
8. Batman Begins
9.War of the Worlds
10. Fantastic Four
11. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
12. Wedding Crashers


Locks:
Chronicals of Narnia: Lion Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Chicken Little
Harry Potter 4
40 Year old Virgin (up)

90-99% (almost locks):
Fun With Dick and Jane

75-89% (good chance):
The Producers
Munich
Legend of Zorro

60-74%(decent chance):
Wallace and Grommit
V for Vendetta
Rumor has it
Get Rich or Die Tryin!

40-59% (so-so):
Walk the Line
Flight Plan
Memories of a Geisha
All the Kings Men
Cheaper by the Dozen 2
Yours Mines and Ours
The New World
Jarhead
Corpse Bride
Zathura

25-39% (probably not):
Doom
The Fog
Elizabethtown
Weather man
Family Stone
Rent
Syrinia

10-24% (don't count on it!):
Serenity
Greatest Game Ever Played

1-9% (SEIROUSLY DOUBT IT!):
Idiotacracy
Domino
The Woods
Into the Blue

Fun with Dick and Jane is a lock, IMO.

Corpse Bride is good(75%) chance I think.

Shack I think Corpse Bride has at least a 75% chance also, its just the other people here that have kept me from having it that high.

Just like Heaven is out, same for Emily Rose. Greatest Game Ever Played is out as well. Corpse Bride would need some amazing WoM and I just don't see it getting it. Should top out under $85 million. Flightplan won't make it either. Serenity is a lock not to make it either. It'll be a frontloaded movie and it would need an opening of over $30 million to have a chance and it won't be getting that.

40 Year Old Virgin will pass it soon.

Is the Woods even coming out in 2005?

Passed it:

1. Hitch
2. Robots
3. The Pacifier
4. Star Wars: Episode III: The Revenge of the Sith
5. Madagascar
6. The Longest Yard
7. Mr. and Mrs. Smith
8. Batman Begins
9. War of the Worlds
10. Fantastic Four
11. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
12. Wedding Crashers
13. 40 Year Old Virgin


Locks:

Chicken Little
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe
King Kong
Fun with Dick and Jane


Great chance:

Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Rumor Has It
The Legend of Zorro


Other than the ones above, the only ones I see having a chance as well are The Family Stone, Jarhead and The Producers.

Locks
Chicken Little
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
The Chronicles of Narnia
King Kong
Fun with Dick and Jane

Great Chance
The Legend of Zorro
Jarhead
Get Rich or Die Tryin'
Munich
Rumor Has It
Cheaper by the Dozen 2

Good Chance
The Fog
Doom
The Family Stone
Walk the Line

*removes dust from the thread*
Finally Updated:
Removed: V (moved) Woods, 3001 (I have no clue what happen to these 2 not that they ever had a chance anyway), Courpse Bride, Flightplan, Fog, Elizabethtown, Greatest Game, Serentiy, Into the Blue, Domino (knew the last 4 wouldn't)
1. Hitch
2. Robots
3. The Pacifier
4. Star Wars: Episode III: The Revenge of the Sith
5. Madagascar
6. The Longest Yard
7. Mr. and Mrs. Smith
8. Batman Begins
9.War of the Worlds
10. Fantastic Four
11. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
12. Wedding Crashers
13. 40 Year old Virgin


Locks:
Chronicals of Narnia: Lion Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Chicken Little
Harry Potter 4

90-99% (almost locks):
Fun With Dick and Jane (on the verge of becoming a lock)

75-89% (good chance):
Munich
Legend of Zorro

60-74%(decent chance):
Rumor has it
Get Rich or Die Tryin!
The Producers (down)
Jarhead (up)

40-59% (so-so):
Walk the Line
Memories of a Geisha
All the Kings Men
Cheaper by the Dozen 2
Yours Mines and Ours
The New World
Zathura

25-39% (probably not):
Doom
Weather man
Family Stone
Rent
Syrinia

10-24% (don't count on it!):
North County (new)
Saw II (returns to the list)

1-9% (SEIROUSLY DOUBT IT!):
Wallace and Grommit (it will need to have great legs like its having, but I still doubt it will make it, may come close though)