I meant movies that open in wide release.

Mad Hot Ballroom is having a fantastic run, I honestly thought it would have been long gone from theaters by now. Just goes to show I don't understand documentary runs that good. :wink:

All kidding aside though, Penguins is doing fantastic, I probably will check it out sometime, maybe after I see another movie.

HUSTLE & FLOW and DEVIL'S REJECTS will both probably drop over 60% this weekend. Word of mouth for both is mediocre.

THE ISLAND should be at 20 Million by the end of the week and will make around 8 Million this weekend.

WEDDING CRASHERS and CHARLIE & THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY are both locks for 200 Million at this point.

Arent we getting ahead of ourselves by already saying that movies like Wedding Crasher and CATCF both will make it pass 200 million? The reason why its holding so well this week was because last weeks movies failed to make any dent at all and were peerforming like labor day movies. Although this coming weekend movies dont look any better, I think we should wait till Dukes of Hazzards and Duece Bigelow before we destart declaring that WC will pass 200 million. It still has like 110 million to pass that mark

I think Penguins might see another increase at the rate it's going. If it, pessimistically, fell 5% and then 3% on Thursday, it would only need a 50% Friday increase to match last Friday's gross.

And it's adding another 83 theaters this weekend. The PTA is only down 35% comparing to last Tuesday even though the theater count is five folded. I may be exaggerating, but this could seriously turn into one of those rare phenomena (CTHD, MBFGW) where a previously-thought unimaginable final gross is possible. I can see it earning between $4-6M for many weekends to come. The screen count will hold strong because theater owners love this kind of backloaded movies. The PTA is better than 90% of the films on the market, so why drop it when they are taking the majority of the earnings.

Wow. We're having several fantastic performances this late summer. The quality flicks are doing quality numbers. Hollywood will catch on, eventually.....

Actually, WC is probably doing so good because our theaters aren't exactly enforcing the R rating. I just went and saw WC tonight. I look 14. I'm about to start my sophomore year in college, and I still get asked if I'm a high school freshman. Did I get ID'd when I bought the ticket? No. Did I get ID'd when I walked into the auditorium? No.

Our theaters are being horrifically lax in their enforcement of ratings. That's why the ratings system doesn't work anymore (if it ever did).

That has to be the reason WC's doing so good, because people aren't *having* to sneak in...

Joy

I've been doing some numbers, and I can't find a single way that March of the Penguins won't increase this weekend. With the increase in theaters, and the fantastic weekdays, it has to increase. If it is at $720,000 on Thursday, and increases a relatively low amount of +50%, and using the same weekend multiplier as last weekend, it'll get $4.51 million this weekend, +3% from last weekend.

And I will have nailed it to.. Afterall, I do get some things right once in a blue moon.. Being in the Top 5 for as much time as it has been and holding it's own against several new releases probves this movie is pretty well received despite what the internet world critics feel..

Erm, BKB...

You said it was be, and I quote, "the POTC of the summer". I'd hardly call that being right.

I said that and considering it being in the Top 5 like POTC was for it's duration, I'd say there's some truth to it.. I also stated that this movie would gross around 150 Million to make back it's cost to make the film and it's marketing cost..

Plus, by the time the PTA begins to drop, it will be facing one of the weaker times of the year for openers. It's just like MBFGW in that way. I'm certain Memento would have done better had it not tried to expand against the blockbusters of summer.

Each day I think it's going to do better then I previously did. The weekdays have convinced me that it will have extraordinary legs. MBFGW was showing the same sort of thing even as it was expanding. MOTP will average drops of 20% at the most. I think the multiplier will certainly be above 7 following its highest weekend. 13 or so, like MBFGW, is possible. It also will continue to show great holds in terms of its PTA as it expands. It's going to 1,200 theaters Aug. 5th (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=1855&p=.htm) and it can eventually reach 1,500+ theaters, even 2,000.

So, I entirely agree with you. I keep playing with the numbers, and I get nothing but extremely positive results. I think it will earn 60m-90m, but even F 9/11 isn't entirely safe IMO.

For me this is the most interesting thing to happen at the BO since The Passion.

I really have to agree with DP07 that this is really pretty amazing. It's early on, but unless it somehow crashes at some point, we've found ourselves this summer's Napoleon Dynamite/My Big Fat Greek Wedding/etc.