As much as i love Viggo i wouldn't consider him a rising star, it's more the opposite, his popularity is waning now that LOTR is over. But as i know him (not personally) he won't lose sleep over this, in fact he prefers not being a star.

people are WAY overpredicting Transporter 2. The first one made barely over $25 million. Why do people think this one will make $40-$50 million plus? At most i see $30 million, and that's being generous.

It was big on video.

Exactly. It did really well in rentals and has sort of a cult following. I hated the original but I'll see the sequel with low expectations.

The Transporter made $40+ million in rentals. That's pretty damn good for a film that made $25 million in the box-office.

And, if that trailer looks 10x better than the original one did.

Some notes:

1. Don't underestimate Transporter 2. I've seen the trailer constantly, and it looks great. Transporter suffered from FIVE releases the same weekend in addition to Red Dragon and Sweet Home Alabama making 14-18 million each concerning holdovers. In the middle of October there just wasn't enough audience to go around. Not to mention it was delayed a month five days before it opened in September, which hurt big time.

2. Also, why all the hate for Roll Bounce? I see people giving it the worst multiplier for all wide releases in the month and in general just betting on it getting lost in the shuffle. However, much like You Got Served I think this one could be a big surprise. It has a very appealing plot that a lot of people can identify with, the 70s roller disco setting which both urban and general audiences will think is cool, and a number of cast members who really do have followings (I heard a lot of people go "CHARLIE MURPHY! BOW WOW! NICK CANNON!" when I saw Bad News Bears tonight in a suburban theater). Unless Fox completely dumps this, I have a hard time seeing it bombing. I wouldn't even be surprised if it pulled a You Got Served and made more then most of the other openers that weekend.

3. I have a feeling that The Woods will be released in a far more limited amount of theaters then not. We're just about a month from it's release and unlike every other film for the next month there's been no website, no trailers, no posters, nada.

4. I could see History of Violence surprising a lot of people. It may in actuality be an indie, but the trailer certainly doesn't sell it as one, and my friends who are action/horror junkies all wanted to see it a lot. I could see this breaking out of the indie shell.

5. Serenity has some break out potential as well. It has a lot of cross demographic appeal to both younger and older audiences and is going to have no competition as far as action movies go. And don't forget about a huge built in DVD audience. Over 5 million copies of the $30-50 DVD have been purchased, and many many more rented as well. If they all saw it opening weekend that would be an opening weekend somewhere around 40-50 million. As is, it's all but assured they'll all see it eventually, so I doubt that it will finish any lower then that, even if no general audiences had any interest at all in an action adventure which thusfar has been getting great reviews and word of mouth.

Big video hit isn't big box office hit Donnie Darko: The Director's Cut is a good example. (BTW, recently, many Steven Seagal movies are big video hits)
However, Transporter 2 will still become No.1 Labor Day opener in 2005.


I think that The Woods will likely to be moved.

Underclassman will likely have $6 million opening weekend.

A Sound of Thunder will be lucky to have $2 million opening weekend.

I think this month is terrible for movies, almost nothing comes out that I want to see. Though I do need to say, I'm sure some of these will be mild size hits. Nothing will cross $100 million, at least I don't think so. Also, I know some of you guys say most people don't know about MAY. Thats totally untrue. The first couple months, it was always out at my Movie Gallery and my Blockbuster. My friends know about it, well most of my friends would know about it because I was crazy about it a couple years ago but my "newer" friends know about it and they wanted to borrow it. Of course I doubt the people know who the director is, they won't go "oh he directed MAY, it'll be awesome!" So, I guess your predictions for it are right. I'm sure the movie will kick all kinds of ass, just like MAY did though.

You would have had a point if there were a Donnie Darko 2 bombing...

September 2nd:
Transporter 2 - 21m/49m
A Sound of Thunder - 4m/8m
The Woods - ?

September 9th:
The Exorcism of Emily Rose - 12m/28m
The Man - 10m/30m

September 16th:
Just Like Heaven - 26m/89m
Proof - ?
The Reaper - ?

September 23rd:
Cry Wolf - 7m/14m
Flightplan - 15m/44m
Roll Bounce - ?
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride - 9m/25m (Seriously overestimated IMO. When did a film like this last do well. This reminds me of Sky Captain except without the special effects to open it.)
Waiting - ?

September 30th:
The Greatest Game Ever Played - ?
A History of Violence (Going wide after one week of limited release) - 11m/36m
In the Blue - 17m/46m
Lord of War - ?
Serenity - 23m/49m

What's MAY?

Transporter was a nice hit on Dvd rentals, so? Does that mean people wanna see it in theaters? It means people werent interested in seeing it in theaters and it's more like a rental type movie, samething happened with After the Sunset and plenty of other movies. Transporter 2 looks horrible, the trailer is god awful, looks worse then the first one.

Anyway, action films are very popular in DVD market (even Steven Seagal is making a lot of money). Therefore, it isn't a big surprise that TRANSPORTER do very well in DVD market.

However, DVD market is not very similar to theatrical market. Former Artisan Entertainment CEO Amir Malin says Hitch have underperformed as DVD.

Hitch underperformed on DVD?

Wow, they must be on crack. Hitch has already pulled $45+ milllion in rentals, and it's on its way to over $60+ million. I'd hardly call that bad.

I think what he means is that it is not a very good performance for a $177 million-grossing movie.

Yeah, Hitch is doing well on rentals, maybe they're talking about sales.

I've edited the calendar to include Underclassmen, and have taken off The Woods as Sony Pictures Classics has moved it off to TBA 2005. By the way, the trailer for Lord of War has premiered on Yahoo, and since it appears to be more of a drama, I'm thinking it'll do a bit less then Matchstick Men did back in September a few years ago. 10/32. http://www.themoviebox.net/movies/2005/ ... railer.php