1. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - 29.4m (-48%)
2. Wedding Crashers - 21.4m (-37%)
3. The Island - 19.1m
4. The Bad News Bears - 14.1m
5. The Fantastic Four - 10.4m (-54%)
6. Hustle and Flow - 8.8m
7. War of the Worlds - 7.6m (-50%)
8. The Devil's Rejects - 6.4m
9. Batman Begins - 3.5m (-42%)
10. March of the Penguins - 3.1m (+106%)

Here is the link. http://www.worldofkj.com/boxoffice/WeeklyPrediction/Prediction-19.php

Read and discuss. Please guys, I like to get some reponses to the article as well, and not just the predictions.

IMO The Island and WOTW are too low.

Except for Hustle and Flow, I think all your predictions are low.

Oh, and good read.

We're almost the exact same on the new releases, except you're $6 million lower on the Island. I knew I should have gone lower....

You're very low on the holdovers as well... I think they will hold better than that.

I hope I didn't go too high on March of the Penguins ($4.1 million).

Yeah, you seem to be low balling some things, but I see you're playing it safe. The actualy article is fine, Scott. You know what you're talking about. :wink:

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I love reading what people predict about the box office, I find it very interesting, keep it up!

Island 19 mln? Sahara has started about 18 million, though few people waited film. I think, and it is not less 20 million.

I enjoyed your comparison of The Island and Lara Croft. Never even occurred to me!

Island waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too low. Island is gonna be #1 with $30+ mill.
BNB,HF and DR are about right.

Bay's name alone will get 25 mill worth into the seats. It will open with more than 30, I think. There is no way WOTW drops 50% and I think Devil's Rejects gets about another mill.

If Ridley Scott's name on a big epic didnt even guarantee that KOH to open over 20 million, Michael Bay's name probably wont guarantee the movie to open to over 30 million

The Island's main problem is that everytime I see or hear about it, only one word comes to mind: generic. Everything about this movie just reeks of it. The premise, a hodgepodge of sci-fi/action cliches. The commercials, the poster, and worst of all the title: THE ISLAND. Just screams generic to me. That's the movie's main problem, and why the tracking is so notoriously low.

On the other hand, Michael Bay's name bringing in people is a good point. And there's not much else for teenage boys this weekend. But I can't help but think that those craving a Michael Bay movie will be the ones making up that $20 million or so.

I'm not feeling any heat on this movie. I read all the film news sites...I read the reviews...and I was STILL constantly forgetting it was coming out this week. The sneak previews were a noble failure. There's just no buzz.

I really think marketing dropped the ball here. We shall see.

I didn't know Ridley Scott had his own fanclub...

Directors don't draw majority of audiences.

The combination of Spielberg and Cruise wasn't enough to bring people in to Minority Report to reach its high expectations for box-office, so why would Ridley Scott, who is relatively unknown among the average person, draw people to Kingdom of Heaven?

Arrgghg dangit Zing, I was trying to prove my point to Baumer ](*,) because he mentioned Michael Bay's name guarantees the Island to make more than 25 million. I was using Ridley Scott to prove a point that directors need big stars in movies to open

I guarantee 99% of the movie-going audience do not know who Michael Bay or Ridley Scott is. Most let alone could not name 3 directors.

Always glad to ruin your good time...

I think you'd be surprised at just how much of the target audience knows who Michael Bay is. Really. Not that it will really help the movie this time out.

I think this 'director' discussion is largely moot anyway...Ridley Scott directed Gladiator before KOH...people may not know off the top of their head who Scott is, but if they saw any of the trailers they damn well know that KOH was "from the director of Gladiator"...know what I mean? People know if that connection excites them...they don't need the name.

The people who know Michael Bay, do not know him for good reasons.

I would say he has mixed results in the public eye.

"The Island" is a piece of crap name. It sounds like DiCaprio's The Beach or something like that.

Plus the whole clone thing doesnt ever really register with audiences. Look at bombs like The Sixth Day and Multiplicity.

The director and the name of the movie have nothing to do with its failure. Its the poor distribution and lack of advertising.

Actually there are director names that can open a movie and Im not talking about Spielberg either. You can attach the name of Quentin Tarentino and M Night Shymalan's name onto any movie and they will open pretty big. I guess it also helps that both directors I mentioned are pretty charistmatic when they get interviewed by talk show hosts

That's true, but it's not a guarantee. Shymalan's next film might not crack $30-40 million because of The Village.

Not everybody hated THE VILLAGE. A lot of my friends enjoyed it.

Maybe or maybe not, M Night was able to rebound after the failure of Unbreakable although it still made close to 100 million. I dont think the Village will hurt his name that badly