To be honest - i think Wedding Crashers will hold better over the weekend than Anchorman - theres a shitload of good buzz about it - and Charlies buisness obviously took a bite of available film-goers. Tomorrow night should see a minimal decline.

Awesome for Charlie. Awesome to the max.

I knew it'd be the biggest box office phenomenon the world had ever seen. And I was right.

FANTASTIC numbers for both Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Wedding Crashers if true! :razz:

I'm glad to see that another summer movie can open HUGE besides Star Wars and War of the Worlds.

Not necessarily, depends on the area. Some areas people go in the morning, in others no one does. I have been to some places where no one goes in the morning and others were it is very full. When I was younger, shows in the KC area were full in the morning quite often. I noticed the same thing in California. I rarely see it in DC. I have noticed Morphin's theater is not exactly a statistical epitome. There have been times it was an outlier of the national picture.

I'm sure the morning shows were filled up because a lot of people would be standing in line of the their local Borders or Barnes & Nobles around midnight for that Harry Potter book (like some of my friends...).

Hell, even Fantastic Four (which made the same amount last Friday) had some very busy matinees.

It really depends on your area and the type of film. I'd expect something like Charlie and the Chocolate Factory to be packed in the afternoon, but a movie like Wedding Crashers to be very slow in the matinees...

Anyone know if this person has posted before and if so how accurate? What number was FF posted for HSX last week, and did it end up higher or lower in the actuals?

Of course, now it needs to increase 250% ($70M) today and hold there on Sunday for yousr $160M prediction to come true, so I guess you're screwed.

The first number I think was $20M, with the actual being $21.4M.

Wow, big drops for everything! Did CATCF do that, or HP6?

All the holdovers took a pounding, ouch.

And my derby is screwed, as I overpredicted EVERYTHING except the two openers, the exact opposite of last week, where I UNDERpredicted everything except the two openers. #-o ](*,)

Both openers effected all the holdovers (as shown by JMorphin's crowd report), but I'm sure HP6 had some effect on the midnights shows, since that's when the book went on sale.

or even earlier than that.
i have friends who waited online since 6 PM.

I'll need more decimals for more accurate projections, but these are for now:

CHARLIES AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY - 57.0
WEDDING CRASHERS - 29.3
FANTASTIC FOUR - 20.5
WAR OF THE WORLDS - 14.0
BATMAN BEGINS - 5.4
MR. AND MRS SMITH - 4.8
DARK WATER - 4.3
HERBIE: FULLY LOADED - 3.2
BEWITCHED - 2.4
MADAGASCAR - 2.1

Who knew that the combo of C&TCF and the WC would of had that major effect on holdover movies? Yet F4,WOTW and BB didnt do any damage to the other holdovers in their respective week when they opened

That's exactly why I think HP6 had an effect (Was there such an effect with HP5?).

And these #s won't hurt my derby, seeing that I DIDN'T ENTER IN THE DERBY. #-o Oy.

Hmmm, those holdover drops are all suspiciously large. I suspect that Charlie and the Chocolate Factory's opening day might've been underpredicted by as much as $10 million!

:O Fantastic Four is in for a horrible holdover, my pred had it dropping 61% - looks like it will drop even more than that.

War of the Worlds looks about right too.. Batman Begins is about right for my preds as well. Infact the top tier of films arent far off my predictions. Charlie will exceed it by $10m and thats probobly my least accurate.

Im off on the smiths by a fair bit, I said -33% and its in for -38% at very best. Bewitched im out about 5% on,
the real killer is MADAGASCAR which dropped like, 55%; its final weekend total from that is likely to be roughly 44% at best. I said -28%


I FORGOT TO PREDICT DARK WATER!!!! meh no biggy i will just use Rebound's numbers anyway.

I don't think HP6 is the reason, because the film that would suffer most from it is CATCF because it has the same target audience as HP6.

Well Maybe CATCF would of had a bigger opening if not for HP6. Its probably the reason why Jb007 questioned about CATCF not making more if its morning shows were 90% full

DAMN IT! I shouldn't have listened to Lee's Movie Info's report pointing at a 15 Million Friday for CRASHERS. I was originally predicting 11.6 Million for Friday and a 33.9 Million weekend, but then raised my Friday prediction to 14 Million and my weekend prediction to 41.1 Million.


I remember when I saw the first trailer for CHARLIE in the spring I thought this one was going to disappoint at the Box Office because it seemed way too weird for mainstream moviegoers. I thought it might open around 29-30 Million and finish with 80-90 Million. But the last couple of weeks before it opened the buzz got bigger and bigger and I soon ditched that opinion and it became obvious that even though it looked really weird and like something that would normally turn a lot of people off this one was going to do better than I originally expected. And Friday night I raised my prediction from 42.2 Million to 54.2 Million. I also thought it would drop faster before, kind of like A.I., but then in the last week with so many being really pleased with the film I figured that wouldn't happen, and now I know it won't. People are loving it and it won't have bad legs at all. It's just kind of hard to accurately predict some movies until they are closer to opening.

A little more decimals from Lee:

1 Chocolate Factory 20.822 NEW 3770 5,523 20.82
2 Wedding Crashers 10.805 NEW 2925 3,694 10.80
3 Fantastic 4 6.488 -69% 3619 1,793 82.77
4 War of the Worlds 4.355 -53% 3724 1,169 181.55
5 Batman Begins 1.645 -46% 2810 585 178.75
6 Mr. and Mrs. Smith 1.520 -39% 2370 641 164.56
7 Dark Water 1.485 -63% 2657 559 15.86
8 Herbie: Fully Loaded 1.092 -50% 2481 440 53.44
9 Bewitched 0.801 -57% 2290 350 55.27
10 Madagascar 0.633 -55% 1779 356 182.41

Projections updated at BOF.

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory will need atleast a 3.4x multiplier to get $200+ million total. It'll be interesting...

Well, the only other family films left this summer are The Bad News Bears (Rated PG-13, could hurt it), Sky High (Not much buzz) and Valient (Too British?), so things look good. And the weekdays this week should be great.