1. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - 38.5m
2. The Fantastic 4 - 24.1 (-57%)
3. Wedding Crashers - 22.8m
4. War of the Worlds - 15.2m (-50%)
5. Batman Begins - 5.8 (-42%)
6. Mr. and Mrs. Smith - 5.2m (-34%)
7. Dark Water - 4.8m (-52%)
8. Herbie Fully Loaded - 3.8m (-37%)
9. Bewitched - 2.9m (-48%)
10. Madagascar - 2.5m (-38%)
Top Ten Cume - 125.6m

A little boy goes to a candy shop to get a Wonka Bar, and when he opens it, he finds a Golden Ticket. So what does he do? He runs to nearest multiplex to see Willa Wonka's Factory.

Yes folks, the factory is open, 3770 of them to be exact. Burton has had success with a classic remake before (Planet of the Apes), but being a remake of the children's classic, it will be a bit trickier this time. The eccentricity of Depp will bring in the teens, but is the movie too weird for children? On the other hand, the print counts have been massive, and the good reviews and the I-max run will help too. Then again, the Polar Express had all those qualities, and it managed only a $23 million opening weekend (like Charlie, it also had questionable appeal before it's release, not to mention it was very elaborate, and expensive). But it should better than Polar thanks to Depp, and more comedy. But still, the weirdness will prevent this movie from having a massive opening. Like other kid movie remakes, the per screen average should be barely above $10,000, giving the fantasy pic $38.5 million in golden ticket sales over the weekend, followed by an even more questionable longevity period.

Also over the weekend, Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn will Crash Weddings at 2925 chapels. The buzz has been pretty strong for the raunchy comedy, but will the R-rating hurt it's potential? The rating will defiantly put a dent in the teenage movie going audience, who the movie is being aimed for. But the young adults and women will make up for that. The trailers have gotten great reaction, the marketing is great, and the print counts are even, uh, great. A per screen average similar to the original American Pie could be in store (since the movie is a non-sequel with no proven bankable star), giving this party a $22.8 million start.

As for holdovers, The Fantastic 4 should go the similar route that the original X-men went through, therefore, it will get the same second weekend drop. Dark Water will drop more than half not only because of it's Saturday drop (not a good sign for an Adult movie), but the Sunday drop was pretty harsh too. Also, the WOM has been mediocre. Batman will drop bigger than expected thanks to the loss of I-max theaters. War of the Worlds will drop big still, thanks the midweek pattern. The Smith's will have the lowest decline in the top ten thanks to the fact that it has the least direct competition among the top ten movies. Herbie and Madagascar will have bigger than expected declines thanks to Willy Wonka. Bewitched will suffer some female competition from Wedding Crashers, and it's harsh theater drop.

All in all, another solid weekend should be in store. The chances of topping the $134.9 million top ten cume of last year remains questionable. It really all depends on Charlie's potential, whether it can go beyond the core audience. Either way, at least the weekend won't be very Dahl (okay, that was a bad punchline, but the Laffy Taffy ones can be pretty bad too).

Strongly disagree with your Charlie and the Chocolate Factory prediction, but we'll see...

i think Scot is bit to low on CF but it wont be be big eiher. 45 is max. WC well thay will cresh only production money nothing eals.

A week ago, I would have had about the same prediction for Charlie. I was at $40 million then. But the recent incredible crowd reports and strong yahoo review numbers, combined with some last minute buzz with good reviews and a strong theatre and screen count, I don't see this doing even close to your prediction.

PEACE, Mike

I think it may open higher as well.

Time will tell.

YOUR CATCF prediction is to low IMO.

Are you sure a children's movie won't be much effected by a huge phenomenon in children's publishing happening this saturday? Half Blood Prince will probably make more than double CATCF, that can't help but affect it.

Looking at the yahoo thread it seems the film will do atleast 20mill on friday alone.

Yep, that's what I was going to mention. Even if Harry Potter does cause it to have a frontloaded weekend, it appears to me that it's friday is going to make a killing, so even a saturday drop because of Harry Potter would still leave for a possible nice $50+ million weekend.

PEACE, Mike

mike, you do realize that from this moment forth, no one will really be reading your posts anymore.

Did anyone even read my posts in the first place? Probably not. At least now I have an attraction. Haha.

PEACE, Mike

Oh what was I saying again, I got little distracted there

Au contraire, all ya'll will be looking for them.

You're too high on Fantastic Four and Dark Water in my opinion. Charlie is way too low.

Madagascar is the real wildcard here. Charlie could absolutely kill it, or its sellout business will give Madagascar more tickets.

I cant really remember clearly, but how much did Order of the Phoenix take away from the Hulk?

Not the same demographic.

Hulk fell 11.3% on its second day which is the day OotP came out. Compared to Fantastic Four which only fell 5.3% on its second day, and X-Men which fell 7.2% its kind of harsh.

But Hulk was one of the most frontloaded blockbusters of all time, so you can't really say that there was a big effect from the new HP book.

True though you gotta wonder why it fell that hard in its second day vs other summer Marvel Comic movies not named Spider-Man.

Was Hulk really aimed at kids as much as charlie is though?

Almost similar to my Dom vs Inter predictions.
hopefully this is a good sign and i win the match vs Andrew.

Charlie 38.6m
Crashers 25.5m
F4 $23.5m
WoW 15.1m
BB 6.1m
MR&MS 5.0m
DW 4.4m
Herbie 3.5m
Bewitched 3.0m
Madagascar 2.8m

No but it still had an effect I'm sure. Kids definatly aren't the only readers of Harry Potter.

You are too low on Batman... about 1.4 mil to low...