People were willing to bet their lives on Alexander, Troy, and The Day After Tomorrow.

It's too soon.

Non of those has a huge fanbase or were advertised to christian churches.

Narnia hasn't a huge fanbase either, actualy almost no movie can rely on their fanbase alone, except maybe Star Wars. Would only LOTR fans watch the movies they wouldn't have crossed the century mark domestically, not even close, i'm pretty sure of that.

Over 100mill copies sold,i think that means its huge.

Worldwide, and since the fifties...

I'm not talking about people who have heard of it or read it once but of true fans (still alive ), those who will 100% go watch the movie.

I misstated, Narnia has quite a big following, no question, but what i meant is that those people alone won't make it a huge movie, for that it needs to show appeal to a great deal of the general movie going audience, and for that in turn it needs to be a damn good movie. We'll see...

Yea, but they weren't me \:D/

Just wait and see, and I will perfectly happy to add another notch to my belt.

who's a better troll, BKB or Emperor?

Good point torrino...My point exactly. Remember, just because a movie passes 100 million does not mean that it is remotely successful. The budget for this flick will be likely north of 100, although it's being shot in NZ (which can easily push the budget down by 50 million), it still is obviously an expensive film. It would have to make minimum twice it's budget (200) for it to start making profits.
So 150 million final gross, or 110 million, or anything below 200, is still a loss. Marketing might be around 30-40 million, so it might have to make up to 250 + million for the profits to start rolling in.

Just remember that.

Look at Charlie and the Chocolate factory... People might think its 55 million opening is good, however, its budget is 150 million. It has to make at least 300 million just to cover its budget. This is not a lock at all.

But then again Alexander and Troy were rated R. Troy may have passed $200 million if it were PG-13. Not sure about Alexander. And The Day After Tomorrow had to face Shrek 2, so there is its excuse ($68 million and STILL not number 1).

After seeing the Trailer I believe this film is gonna open huge. I had no idea about the Christian parallels until I read this thread but I still wanted to see the movie and so have a lot of my friends who have seen the trailer. Also it's Christmas and I think most parents will prefer to take their kids to King Kong instead of this one. Harry Potter will have been in cinemas by a month when this opens and won't really affect it that much. I'm predicting it will finish over 200 mil.

I doubt if parent had a choice between the two they would go to King Kong. Although both look pretty action packed, Kong looks much darker and does not look like the family movie. While Narnia looks much more kid friendly.

Actually if I remember correctly the budget is near $200 mil., at least that's what I heard a few months ago, not sure about now.

Anyways it certainly doesn't need to double its budget to profit. With an expected huge international performance (twice the domestic number) and also DVD sales factored in I think it only needs around $120-$150 mil. to break even. You might disagree with me but remember that it's going to be huge internationally. :wink:

The trailer kind of has that Harry Potter/Lord Of The Rings look to it.It may bring in big dollars over the holiday season.Last Christmas I think people were in LOTR withdrawl after seeing 3 movies back to back.