I agree...I definitely see a $50M+ opening and a $60M+ opening is definitely possible! Remember how surprised we were with PLANET OF THE APES? This has a much wider demographic range (don't underestimate the kid audience). My guess:

$62M opening
$220M final

I dunno, the public may have gone sour on pale androgynous eccentrics who have their own play palace and hang around kids. They can sell the DVD as a two pack with Finding Neverland later.

35-40m

It looks like shit.

Thanks for sharing.

It may open big but the WOM will be mixed at best. My C- review was kind.

But you are not its target demographic. Families and children will most likely have a very different than yours.

Are you kidding? The marketing has been *fabulous* for CatCF! The TV spots have been on all the right stations--WB, ABC, NBC, MTV, Cartoon Network, Nickelodeon... and more. And just check out any Johnny Depp message board, and you'll find that Wonka's face is all *over* Los Angeles. There are buses covered in CatCF design, billboards *everywhere*, and even yesterday, they had a Chocolate Day where they had Deep Roy in costume up on one of the giant billboards dancing to some of the Oompa-Loompa songs!

Hot Topic is now selling tons of CatCF merchandise, so that's garnering interest in the teenaged groups. Kids are seeing commercials on Cartoon Network, so they're getting excited. And there are books... coloring books, activity and sticker books, and a re-issue of Dahl's novel.

I wouldn't say that the marketing for CatCF has been bad. I'd say it's been fantastic!

Joy

Actually, I fell right into their demographic (otherwise I wouldn't have gotten into the test screening). We'll see what WOM is like. It's not as if those audiences that I mentioned in my review will all give the film a free pass. Some people actually enjoy quality.

Aren't you like 25+ years old? I guess your demographic would count if they want this movie to get past $200 million.

This was your best review for a large kid movie this year. The WOM on the other kid movies you reviewed (Madagascar, Herbie, Robots) weren't so bad, actually pretty good for family movies. Did you think the same on those?

1. The TV spots haven't exactly been dynamite. They fail to hide the film's inherent oddity.
2. I don't live in LA and where I live there aren't any such billboards. If Warner Bros. wants a big opening they need to realize that LA isn't the only place where people go to movies.
3. Who actually shops at Hot Topic?
4. Reissusing the book is a good idea though, I'll give you that.

I am over 25 and a key demographic that they were looking for during the test screening.

People in general seem to love whatever CGI film is out. So yeah, I wasn't surprised at the response for Mada or Robots.

Best review for a 2005 kids film by me? I guess, if you rule out the PG-13 films, and of course the G rated Aliens of the Deep. A C- is hardly a ringing recommendation for Charlie though.

ääähm NOT in.

I think it will do mediocre. But it can also do a Cat in the Hat.
Im not in the 60 mio club for FF4 so no way to join this. [-X

I'm not doubting you as a target demographic, 25-35 year-olds will probably make up more than 30% of the audience. Your demographic will determine whether this movie makes $130 million or $230 million. Families will see it no matter what and give it at least a multiplier of 3. I have no idea what point I'm trying to make, but my post will continue.


I see.


I was looking for the biggest grossing kids films this year, and I don't consider any PG-13 film to be a kids film.

No way will it do a Cat in the Hat. CitH was a horrific film that had horrid WOM (which it very much deserved). This movie is not going to be bad like that movie.

A few more reviews have come in, and so far, I still have yet to find a bad review (unless you count the new Statler & Waldorf Muppets review show on Movies.go.com to be a legit review source). Although Loyal didn't give it an A or B, he still didn't give it a D or an F either.

Plus, a lot of people saw CatCF before it was finished. So, some may have forgotten that what they saw was not the final product. A month or two of final post-production can do a lot for a film. That's why it was a test screening--to find out what people thought was good and what they thought was bad, so they can tweak the movie.

I'm confident it's going to be a great movie and that lots of people will see it, like it, and the WOM will be great. Even the reviews I've read that mention Michael Jackson have said that the impression came early on and very quickly wore off and therefore didn't mar their viewing experience. And they ended up giving the movie a good review.

Joy

I think it can definitely reach $50 million. It also has potential to reach $60 million in my opinion. People might call it strange, but a lot of kids I have been around are anticipating this movie like crazy. They are promoting it all over Cartoon Network, and it might look strange to some, but as far as I can see the kids are eating it up. Sometimes kids don't mind strange, in fact some really don't know what strange is.

Early preview screenings in Belgium went very well: the response from the audience is very enthusiastic.

So far your review is the only negative one I've seen, Loyal, and I've been checking all over the internet for them. You're entitled to your taste but I think the WOM will be good on this. It'll get family audiences and fans of Depp and Burton (who'll see it no matter what the reviews are like). It's been heavily advertised on CartoonNetwork and Nickleodeon for months now, and people in various parts of the US have reported that the bookstores are prominently displaying the reissued book. Even the grocery stores have gotten in the act; the Wonka candies of course, Hostess cupcakes, and some sort of Golden Ticket promotion too. I'm in the New York/New Jersey area and believe me the CATCF posters are all over the theaters, subway stations, and malls.

Of course there will be people who think FN and this movie are about MJ and pedophilia, and no reviews are going to change their minds. And the ones who think that the first movie was an untouchable classic will probably stay away. I also figured it will look too weird for some people, but I was happily surprised that reviewers haven't been put off by that. That's something that good WOM can overcome.

I agree. Hollywood Reporter has released their review of CatCF, and it is glowing. In fact, here's a quote from it:

"Here's a film about kids and for kids that has not lost touch with what it is like to actually be a kid. Children and adults alike will jam lines to movie houses in North America and overseas to acquire golden tickets for this audience-pleaser."

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/re ... 1000976308

Can't wait 'til Rotten Tomatoes starts getting reviews up... It'll be interesting to see the rating on there...

Joy

Well, most reviews that leak early are positive ones.

Maybe so, but Empire and HR are two pretty major sources. Ebert and Roeper are reviewing it this weekend, I think.

BTW, I checked Honeycutt's record on RT, and he agrees with the tomatometer 67% of the time. Here are a sample of his ratings:

FRESH SAMPLE
----------------------------------
Stolen
War of the Worlds
The Beat That My Heart Skipped
March of the Penguins
Tell Them Who You Are
The Deal
Batman Begins
Who's Camus Anyway?
Johanna
Don't Come Knocking

ROTTEN SAMPLE
----------------------------------
Herbie: Fully Loaded
The Perfect Man
Honeymooners
Manderlay
Down in the Valley
Last Days
Lemming
Monster-in-Law
Samaritan Girl
House of Wax

This is interesting. I'm going to start doing this with more critics. Of course, I don't always agree with RT either!

Sorry but F4 will kick Charlie's ass in it's 2nd weekend out, people dont wanna see a movie about some Micheal Jackson wannabe touching kids :laugh: they wanna see a fun feel good summer movie that makes them go :yikes: and :woo:

F4 - 65m
Charlie - 22m
Batman Begins - 0.5m

=D>
Kill, you do a better impression of BKB than BKB can does of himself

I can almost guarantee you that Charlie and the Chocolate Factory will double Fantastic Four's 2nd weekend.

EDIT: Oh wait... your Killuminati, not BKB. Nevermind.

:laugh: Sorry kid but Charlie isnt make 130m it's first weekend out, kids dont wanna see a movie with a really pale guy touching kids and giving them candy, kids are gonna go see F4 for their 2nd and 3rd time unlike Begins which people only saw once because it's boring :Sleep:

:laugh: :laugh: