It seems we, in general, have a tendency to over-predict.
The pattern I've talked about a couple of times in correlation to WWW threads (that virtually every high profile movie last year got) that pop up based on over-expectations stemming solely from WOKJ without any real arguments apart from "This has potential." ("It sold shitload of books." is the #2 reason out there, look at the Dragon Tattoo talk in this thread for instance) which can be used for any movie I guess, but ain't a real argument, no?
If you look at the movies that were actually most overpredicted, it tends to be "this is a big budget tentpole", or "look at the pedigree". Steven Spielberg, Peter Jackson, Clint Eastwood, Leo, Tom Hanks. They are mostly movies that seem to be deemed to be generally appealing without any core reason or audience. Some "award potential" too.
Wed Feb 22, 2012 3:23 pm
DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15539 Location: Everywhere
MI4 for 225m?!?! A&TC for 143m? Just to start with...
Congrats O!
Nice catch on those, they've been fixed. Also fixed the Extremly Loud typo. Anyways, I only locked the total grosses in cases where they wouldn't affect points.
If anyone does notice any other errors, feel free to let me know as there was a lot of data to input.
Wed Feb 22, 2012 7:26 pm
DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15539 Location: Everywhere
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
Re: KJ's Winter Box Office Contest 2011
MG Casey wrote:
Hugo trixster - $80.0 Million +3 SolC9 - $80.0 Million +3 Actual - $70 million Jack Sparrow - $65.0 Million +3 Caseys_Wife - $61.0 Million +3 2001 - $60.0 Million +3 Omni - $60.0 Million +3 David - $60.0 Million +3
Rev - $121.0 Million Viper Rogers - $111.0 Million devon28flick - $86.0 Million Vanilla - $85.0 Million MadGez - $85.0 Million trixster - $80.0 Million +3 SolC9 - $80.0 Million +3 Actual - $70 million Jack Sparrow - $65.0 Million +3 Caseys_Wife - $61.0 Million +3 2001 - $60.0 Million +3 Omni - $60.0 Million +3 David - $60.0 Million +3 Magnus - $55.0 Million Mike - $55.0 Million O - $55.0 Million Flava'd vs the World - $50.0 Million MG Casey - $48.0 Million
SolC9 did catch that Hugo could slightly change points if it gets a decent Oscar boost despite having its DVD release this Tuesday.
If Hugo passes $73 million, this will be the ranking:
Hugo Predictions devon28flick - $86.0 Million Vanilla - $85.0 Million +3 MadGez - $85.0 Million +3 trixster - $80.0 Million +3 SolC9 - $80.0 Million +3 Actual - $73.1 million Jack Sparrow - $65.0 Million +3 Caseys_Wife - $61.0 Million 2001 - $60.0 Million Omni - $60.0 Million David - $60.0 Million
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you've won enough this year