In animation you can create a beloved movie and franchise that's 100% original: Frozen, Moana, Encanto, Inside Out, Coco, Zootopia, Despicable Me, Shrek, Kung Fu Panda all with characters created for the movie if I'm not mistaken.

How many live action hits can we say that about in last few decades? National Treasure, Inception, The Hangover, Ted, the original Fast and Furious, Gravity. Not too many. Barbie and Pirates feel more like original breakouts than the others, but even they were IP.

What a weekend!

Moana 2 had an unbelievable opening! Absolutely crushed Frozen 2's 5 day. Just goes to show you how popular Moana is. 600 mil is definitely in the cards. Disney is back to printing money once again with Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine, they could have 3 films over 600 mil this year!

Has that ever happened before?

Disney did it in 2018 with Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War and Incredibles 2

Disney is crazy, years where they had Rogue One/Finding Dory/Civil War/Jungle Book/Zootopia/Moana or the Last Jedi/Beauty and the Beast/Guardians 2/Thor Ragnorak/Coco are like average years for them in the last decade (5th or 6th best).

$417M 5day weekend for the box office.
$269M 3day weekend.
$7,644,083,717 annual tally.
$8,908,478,987 to reach last year.
If we had Avatar in Dec would have happened but up in the air.


Charlie is saying $36M SUN for #Moana2. 5-day weekend totaled $228M. That's +$5.5M up in estimates!!! He sees $600M+.

If there is even a bit of connected universe / story crossover between Moana 2 and the upcoming live action Moana (2026) the latter’s boxoffice will go through the roof (even if Moana 2’s legs slow down in the weeks ahead). There’s apparently more appeal behind the franchise than I thought.

Moana's France performance is really out of this world. Charlie posted that Saturday was the biggest single day there at the box office since The Force Awakens in 2015!

Moana 2 up 5.5 from estimate for 228 5 day = MOTHER OF GOD

Holy fuck

Wicked actual up $1.2M. $81,173,325 -28% $263,195,665

That gives Wicked the BEST 2nd weekend hold ever over $80M+, beating TGM!!!

Yes, Wicked had the best hold ever with a 2nd weekend drop for an $80M+ second weekend against a film that opened 5 days later to $226.5M.

It's hard to directly compare though since TGM had a 28.9% drop AFTER a long weekend so it was stunning to hold like that after an already inflated OW. However, it's only competition was a $2M opener and the rest of the films were all < $10M so Wicked's hold feels just as impressive as TGM even if it had the Thanksgiving bump evens out.

This is going to make so much $$$ over the holidays. Just needs a solid post Thanksgiving hold.


Also Moana update, BOR has the actual at $139.7M / 225.2M (+$4.2M). So not quite $5.5M but still a big spike in Sunday estimate.

Hoping Wicked can get about 6.5m today.

TGM's is definitely more impressive but not to take away from Wicked's.

I know it had alot of other problems, and still did very well despite them, but the cynic in me can't help but wonder if Frozen 2 would have done better by simply repeating the story of the first one. Could it have made $600M? Or are Moana and Inside Out actually just more popular even though the inital runs suggest otherwise?

I don’t think in the end that Moana 2 will make that much more than Frozen 2 adjusted

Lots of animated films now adjust to that $525M-$625M range which Moana 2 looks set at.

For reference of 2000s/2010s animated film adjusted tallies:

Finding Nemo $690,458,569
Inside Out 2 $652,980,194
Finding Dory $629,599,691
Toy Story 3 $597,998,681
Super Mario Bros. $597,931,703
Frozen 2 $571,152,709
Monsters Inc 1 $554,114,681
Frozen $550,065,196
TS4 $540,028,929
TS2 $536,304,569
Shrek 3 $530,184,375
Shrek 1 $525,883,758
DM2 $525,739,134

Incredibles 2 / Shrek 2 were at a whole other level though of hitting the zeitgeist:

Shrek 2 $796,565,850
Incredibles 2 $743,293,591

Just our impression of $300M animated movies of the 2000s is now more like $550M+. Within about 3-4 years, DM2 will probably adjust to $600M+ so we should expect to see more animated sequel $700M+ runs probably be more common by the end of the decade.

Insane hold for Wicked considering the direct and massive competition from Moana 2. I think it could make a run for $500M.

Empire is saying mid 5 for both Wicked and Moana.

Interesting; the only film to finish in the 550-599m range is Super Mario Bros. Maybe Moana or Wicked could finish there too

The last time we had the same dailies (Nov. 29 - Dec. 1), Frozen 2 was out in 2019. It made $3.2M on its 11th day (second Monday). If Wicked followed those dailies for the rest of its run based purely on that Monday # of $5M, it would make another $295.6M. That would leave Wicked with $558.8M total.

Wicked had a better 2nd weekend hold (-27.9% vs -34%), smaller OW, and was 58 minutes longer.

Frozen 2 had Jumanji The Next Level in its 4th weekend, SW Ep. 9 in its 5th weekend, and Little Women in its 6th which with 2 $320M+ grossers felt like much larger competition than Wicked will face this Dec.

All of these factors make me think it will outpace Frozen 2 so really projecting it clears $600M here. This doesn't even take into consideration awards attention, it might not even need 1 Oscar nod to get to $600M+.

If Wicked Part 2 is straight up The Wizard of Oz but from the witches perspectives then I think it could increase from Part 1. Substantially even.

Wicked Part 3?

Dorothy arrives about halfway through Act 2 of the play and the events of Wizard of Oz happen off stage, so it’s very possible in the film they will show those parts to pad the run time.

Monday

$1M CLUB: MONDAY

1. MOANA 2 ($5.7M)
2. WICKED ($5.5M)
3. GLADIATOR II ($2M)

Seems decent for Gladiator.

Moana 2 only did 5.7m on Monday after a 30m Sunday.

Wicked's dailies will eclipse it as soon as next week. Could retake number 1 in its 4th week if Kraven opens to sub 20m.