Flash/Elemental weekend thread
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67155
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
This is mother of devil stuff here. Just really bizarre and sad for a film with so much going for it.
And Elemental is even worse in a way, but at least to me quite foreseeable in how beige it looked. But kids movies - Pixar or not - always get let off the hook.
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Sat Jun 17, 2023 3:37 pm |
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Cynosure
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:30 am Posts: 760
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Budgets are out of control. They aren't in line with the reality of box office performances in 2023 (except maybe Avatar).
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Sat Jun 17, 2023 3:49 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6167 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
zwackerm wrote: The Flash opening under Transformers boggles the mind. The last movie w/ Transformers characters, Bumblebee, was well-received. The last movie with Flash, Justice League, was horribly received. In hindsight we should’ve seen it coming.
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Sat Jun 17, 2023 4:49 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm Posts: 10933
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Also, anyone notice how Pixar started going downhill after Lasseter left? Of course he had to leave because of how he behaved but i think it had an effect on pixar.
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Sat Jun 17, 2023 5:25 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21658 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
It's funny that both of Keaton's Batman movies adjusted opened higher.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:05 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
He left in November 2017 but still dealt with messes like The Good Dinosaur and Cars 3 before that time.
They pulled their biggest hit after he left with Incredibles 2 but that was likely almost already done. Same with TS4 in 2019 as their 3rd biggest.
Pixar also should have kept to 1 movie a year. Their brand started to dilute trying to push out 2 a year as well as the flood of sequels.
You know who I feel most sorry for in all of this, the director of Elemental. He also was the director of The Good Dinosaur so essentially has now directed 2 of Pixar's 4 worst performing movies box office wise with the others being LY and Onward. Though Onward's OW/total were depressed by Covid so almost certainly feels it would have done $124M+ to pass the others.
So he's more or less directed 2 of the 3 worst performing Pixar movies ever. Not a badge anyone would want to have.
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Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:18 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6167 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
So $60M OW with mixed WOM.... we're looking at a likely $150M total, maybe less. Overseas probably won't be massive either. With a $220M budget, this could wind up being a major money losing bomb for WB. Maybe they should've pulled a Batgirl taken a tax write off on it after all...
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 3:08 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67155
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
The more I look at Elemental's $11.8m Friday, the more I don't think it's all that bad. Its preview number of just $2.4m is awful but on a Friday evening who's really going to go see a kiddie pic? Its Saturday and Sunday numbers should be healthier.
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 3:37 am |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21658 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Elemental does benefit from most schools ending this week, could pull a real solid multiplier, 3.5 is 41 million.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 3:40 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67155
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Luckily for The Flash next weekend is empty. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts could do with it, too. And Monday is apparently a holiday, so more $$$
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 3:54 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23921 Location: Classified
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Indy probably should have released this weekend honestly. Father's day was huge for Maverick last year.
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 5:17 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
The only good estimates this weekend are here!
Asteroid City: $790K 3-day, PTA $132K. 4-day $890K. Past Lives: $761K 3-day, 4day $923K. Total $2.06M
Other's:
1 The Flash $55,100,000 2 Elemental $29,500,000 3 Spider-Man $27,800,000 -50% $280,383,000 4 Transformers $20,000,000 -67% $100,622,000 5 The Little Mermaid $11,600,000 -50% $253,559,129 6 The Blackening $6,000,000 7 Guardians of the Galaxy $5,000,000 -31% $344,360,355 8 The Boogeyman $3,800,000 -47% $32,767,747 9 Fast X $1,620,000 -69% $142,003,000
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse drop is good compared to many others which dropped high 60%'s. Probably will recover well next weekend.
Transformers worst 2nd weekend drop for the franchise ever. If they chose a less busy release date probably could have maybe pulled a $200M total. This may miss $150M. The OW clearly showed there was demand for it.
Fast X looks to miss $150M without a push. Globally still making money though and could still pull off $700M+.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie left the top 10 after 10 weeks.
Last edited by O on Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 11:08 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18959 Location: San Diego
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Think Past Lives should play well for rest of summer, hopefully totals well above $10m.
Overall disappointing weekend. Holdovers all dropped pretty hard and openers flailed. Will be interesting to see how they play for rest of their run.
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 11:35 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
$55.1M for the Flash is the official estimate. Can it miss $60M for the 4day too while we're at it?
Absolutely horrendous. Can this possibly miss $100M if the estimate goes lower? Anything feels possible here. Dropped 36% on a Saturday and 5% on Sunday impacted by a holiday but could certainly be a higher drop than that.
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 11:54 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67155
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
It definitely can miss $100m. It just has that feeling about it now. The tide in the press has changed, and it's getting a grilling. Even with an empty weekend next weekend, it'll probably just benefit Spider-Verse, lol.
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 11:56 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20449 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Bad hold for everything outside of Guardians too. Hopefully Father’s Day gets a bigger than expected bump.
Pisses me off that Elemental and Flash bombing still led to all the holdovers dropping 50%.
Awful weekend at the box office, even if Guardians and Asteroid City are bright spots
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 12:10 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18959 Location: San Diego
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Mmm missing $100m is a stretch. It's summer, tomorrow's a holiday. If it does finish below $110m though that'd be.. something
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 12:28 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
The Boogeyman I'd say is the other winner of the weekend with the best hold outside of GOTG.
$3,800,000 -47% drop of almost 1/3 of its theaters. Also had a new horror movie come out too.
Jun 2, 2023 $12,356,486 $3,855 $12,356,486 Jun 9, 2023 $7,152,614 -42% $2,232 $24,973,509 Jun 16, 2023 $3,800,000 -47% $1,776 $32,767,747
It's PTA dropped only 20.4% It's looking like it could get at least a 3.5X multiplier.
Did I forget to mention it has a $35M budget? It looks like a movie about the Boogeyman is going to be more profitable at least purely on domestic box office grosses than The Little Mermaid ($250M), Elemental ($200M), The Flash ($200M), Transformers ($195M) and FastX ($350M). Will also have a better budget multiple than even GOTG3 ($250M). Though Spider-verse has it beat with a $100M budget and likely $350M total.
Last edited by O on Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 12:57 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20449 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
O wrote: The Boogeyman I'd say is the other winner of the weekend with the best hold outside of GOTG.
$3,800,000 -47% drop of almost 1/3 of its theaters. Also had a new horror movie come out too.
Jun 2, 2023 $12,356,486 $3,855 $12,356,486 Jun 9, 2023 $7,152,614 -42% $2,232 $24,973,509 Jun 16, 2023 $3,800,000 -47% $1,776 $32,767,747
It's PTA dropped only 20.4% It's looking like it could get at least a 3.5X multiplier. Yeah but considering it’s Thursday was down less than 30% I’d say dropping 47% is disappointing
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:10 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
zwackerm wrote: O wrote: The Boogeyman I'd say is the other winner of the weekend with the best hold outside of GOTG.
$3,800,000 -47% drop of almost 1/3 of its theaters. Also had a new horror movie come out too.
Jun 2, 2023 $12,356,486 $3,855 $12,356,486 Jun 9, 2023 $7,152,614 -42% $2,232 $24,973,509 Jun 16, 2023 $3,800,000 -47% $1,776 $32,767,747
It's PTA dropped only 20.4% It's looking like it could get at least a 3.5X multiplier. Yeah but considering it’s Thursday was down less than 30% I’d say dropping 47% is disappointing It dropped 39% on Thursday when it had 1000 additional theaters showing it. It had the second best hold of the top 10 with another horror movie opening and when all other holdovers other than GOTG fell off a cliff. It's PTA dropped 20%. It's a solid hold given the market overall.
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:17 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18959 Location: San Diego
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Its drop has more to do with losing 1,000 theaters. Also why TLM dropped hard (lost 800)
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:17 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20449 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
This should be the final nail in Ezra Miller’s Hollywood coffin. I’ll never have to look at his stupid face or annoying voice again
If a film is still in 2000+theaters like the Boogeyman, you’d think it would still be pretty easy to find a showing? I’d think theater drops don’t have that much affect on business till they go a lot lower theater count.
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 3:03 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Bad weekend all around.
Flash and Elemental both coming in at the very bottom of expectations. Former may miss $150m, the latter $100m.
And all the holdovers suffered from further premium theater and showing losses just to accommodate the openers. Guardians still held well, but pretty minor win for the weekend.
April was pretty empty. Fast X or Transformers could have opened in Mario's empty 3rd-4th weekends such would have gone a long way into spreading out the tentpoles from the last weekend of May through the first weekend of July.
Mario - April 5th (Breather) Fast X - April 21st Guardians 3 - May 5th (Breather) Transformers 7 - May 19th Mermaid - May 26th Spider-Verse 2 - June 2nd (Breather) Elemental - June 16th Flash - June 23rd (Breather) Mission Impossible 7 - July 3rd Barbie and Oppenheimer - July 14th (Breather) Indiana Jones 5 - July 29th (move Haunted Mansion to fall!)
Something like this. But everyone crowded late May through late June.
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 3:59 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18959 Location: San Diego
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
zwackerm wrote: This should be the final nail in Ezra Miller’s Hollywood coffin. I’ll never have to look at his stupid face or annoying voice again
If a film is still in 2000+theaters like the Boogeyman, you’d think it would still be pretty easy to find a showing? I’d think theater drops don’t have that much affect on business till they go a lot lower theater count. Lol what of course losing 1/3 of its theaters would result in a bigger drop. Per theater average drop was around 20%
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 4:01 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6167 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
After all that drama in the press, the PR to fix Ezra's image, cancelling Batgirl..... and now this is a BOMB bomb. Green Lantern levels of bomb. How utterly embarrassing for the studio and this is the final nail in the coffin for Snyder's version of DC. Total revamp going forward.
In hindsight we should've seen it coming tbh. Justice League was a badly received bomb, and no one cares about Michael Keaton in 2023. Why would audiences have come out in droves to see this? I feel like Supergirl was also a negative. To the general public she might've just come across as an annoying woke choice instead of having actual Superman.
I feel superhero movies in general are on a steep decline. You could say Guardians and Spider-Verse but not the same. Guardians is more of a sci-fi adventure film, Fifth Element style but more mainstream, it doesn't feel like a superhero movie in the same way even though it's technically Marvel. Spider-Verse is animated and I do think that adds a freshness.
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Sun Jun 18, 2023 5:55 pm |
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