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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48678 Location: Arlington, VA
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andaroo wrote: Isn't Crash's opening EXTREMELY limited? Will $10 million even be possible?
I really don't know what's going on in the movie industry right now. In previous years we can feel excitement even for films that we weren't personally looking forward to. I just can't feel anything this year. I see more anticipation for Serenity than Charlie and Chocolate Factory. There is some for War of the Worlds... none for Madagascar...
With the exception of Star Wars, which seem to be the one every one can agree on.
I think we're going to have a very lackluster summer when it comes down to it.
I agree, this summer doesn't look as impressive as last summer did, and 2004 was not a sterling summer.
Crash is estimated to open in about 1700 theaters. Assuming the final theater count is 1,700 (it will probably go higher), a $10M weekend would be a $5,882 PTA. That sounds fairly reasonable to me, although it will probably be lower.
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:41 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm Posts: 9566
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Thanks for the clarification.
They have upped the screens then.
$10 million is still pretty ambitious for a heavy movie like Crash but definately possible.
The question begs to be answered...
Would Hitchhiker's Guide have made more in June?
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:41 am |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am Posts: 30505 Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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Dr. Lecter wrote: andaroo wrote: Isn't Crash's opening EXTREMELY limited? Will $10 million even be possible?
I really don't know what's going on in the movie industry right now. In previous years we can feel excitement even for films that we weren't personally looking forward to. I just can't feel anything this year. I see more anticipation for Serenity than Charlie and Chocolate Factory. There is some for War of the Worlds... none for Madagascar...
With the exception of Star Wars, which seem to be the one every one can agree on.
I think we're going to have a very lackluster summer when it comes down to it. Is 1,700+ theatres extremely limited? I think it's more than enough to make $10 million in three days. I agree with you about lack of anticipation. Batman Begins has a lot of it too and WotW has some, but other than that....even Sin City had more...
well 1700 means that it still can't open BIIG!
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:43 am |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm Posts: 16061 Location: The Damage Control Table
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wooOOOohoooOOOo! I can't believe Hitchhiker's Guide! I shouldn't have changed my predicts in the other thread. #-o I originally had Hitchhikers at 28 and xXx at 19. But the reviews came in for Hitchhikers and I couldn't tell gage excitement at all. I have to say I'm pleasantly surprised. Despite my personal sentiment towards the movie, I have to say at least it was trying something different, and was just really something fresh for the movies here. It would be nice to see something like this get alot of money rather than superhero spin-off number 200.
My theatre was probably 130 out of a 165 seat, and it was 9.30 on a friday in New York, so I didn't have that much hope for this. But these numbers are spectacular. Yay!
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:43 am |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm Posts: 11289 Location: Germany
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Dr. Lecter wrote: I agree with you about lack of anticipation. Batman Begins has a lot of it too and WotW has some, but other than that....even Sin City had more...
It's the calm before the storm.
_________________
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:43 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm Posts: 9566
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But the storm is Episode III. We can all see it.
Is Episode III a black hole of movie excitement.
Are we underestimating how popular it will be and how much people are looking forward to it based on the other Star Wars movies.
Is it hurting all the other movies around it.
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:45 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Gimli the Elf wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: andaroo wrote: Isn't Crash's opening EXTREMELY limited? Will $10 million even be possible?
I really don't know what's going on in the movie industry right now. In previous years we can feel excitement even for films that we weren't personally looking forward to. I just can't feel anything this year. I see more anticipation for Serenity than Charlie and Chocolate Factory. There is some for War of the Worlds... none for Madagascar...
With the exception of Star Wars, which seem to be the one every one can agree on.
I think we're going to have a very lackluster summer when it comes down to it. Is 1,700+ theatres extremely limited? I think it's more than enough to make $10 million in three days. I agree with you about lack of anticipation. Batman Begins has a lot of it too and WotW has some, but other than that....even Sin City had more... well 1700 means that it still can't open BIIG!
We weren't talking BIIG, but $10+ million.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:45 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Nazgul9 wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: I agree with you about lack of anticipation. Batman Begins has a lot of it too and WotW has some, but other than that....even Sin City had more... It's the calm before the storm.
Yeah...before Sisterhood of Travelling Pants...
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:46 am |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am Posts: 30505 Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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another good point.
this changes my feelings on ROTS as well.
Both these openers did so so. If I'm correct and KoH pulls less than 30 mil .... how is this all effecting the build up to ROTS' opening weekend?
Even more importantly, am i sounding like SWIMFAN!?
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:47 am |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48678 Location: Arlington, VA
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Also, I think this debunks that claim that Vin Diesel wasn't bankable that some of the champions of XXX Redux were making. I gurantee this would've made at least $25M more opening weekend with Diesel in the lead.
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:47 am |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am Posts: 30505 Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Gimli the Elf wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: andaroo wrote: Isn't Crash's opening EXTREMELY limited? Will $10 million even be possible?
I really don't know what's going on in the movie industry right now. In previous years we can feel excitement even for films that we weren't personally looking forward to. I just can't feel anything this year. I see more anticipation for Serenity than Charlie and Chocolate Factory. There is some for War of the Worlds... none for Madagascar...
With the exception of Star Wars, which seem to be the one every one can agree on.
I think we're going to have a very lackluster summer when it comes down to it. Is 1,700+ theatres extremely limited? I think it's more than enough to make $10 million in three days. I agree with you about lack of anticipation. Batman Begins has a lot of it too and WotW has some, but other than that....even Sin City had more... well 1700 means that it still can't open BIIG! We weren't talking BIIG, but $10+ million.
Oops .. i assumed Andaroo's comments were in connection to my previous one.
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:48 am |
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jb007
Veteran
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm Posts: 3917 Location: Las Vegas
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Gimli the Elf wrote: another good point.
this changes my feelings on ROTS as well.
Both these openers did so so. If I'm correct and KoH pulls less than 30 mil .... how is this all effecting the build up to ROTS' opening weekend?
Even more importantly, am i sounding like SWIMFAN!?
Say it ain't so? :wink:
_________________ Dr. RajKumar 4/24/1929 - 4/12/2006 The Greatest Actor Ever. Thanks for The Best Cinematic Memories of My Life.
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:48 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Gimli the Elf wrote: another good point.
this changes my feelings on ROTS as well.
Both these openers did so so. If I'm correct and KoH pulls less than 30 mil .... how is this all effecting the build up to ROTS' opening weekend?
Even more importantly, am i sounding like SWIMFAN!?
To top it all...ARE YOU SWIMFAN?!
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:48 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Libs wrote: Also, I think this debunks that claim that Vin Diesel wasn't bankable that some of the champions of XXX Redux were making. I gurantee this would've made at least $25M more opening weekend with Diesel in the lead.
I agree. But ah well, he has The Pacifier franchise now
Ice Cube and action just don't mix well. Last time he tried it with Torque which was overpredicted as well.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:50 am |
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Tuukka
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:35 am Posts: 1830 Location: Helsinki, Finland
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Excellent for Hitchhiker. I predicted 17 million, but I hoped it would do more. The flick cost only 50 million and even with heavy drops it should reach 65-70 million. And I think 60-65% of the B.O will come from overseas and the fanbase will provide healthy DVD business. The sequel is guaranteed now, at least if the cast has agreed to do one.
Last edited by Tuukka on Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:50 am |
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Korrgan
problem?
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:52 am Posts: 15515 Location: Bait Shop
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Libs wrote: Regarding 2 Fast 2 Furious and Tomb Raider 2, an important factor was summer. Although some of you have been branding this weekend as the "summer kickoff" for a while now, it most certainly was not.
It is still April, for goodness' sake. Both of those movies *actually* opened in summer.
I agree, this weekend in no way was the first weekend of the summer movie season. The first real summery movie that's opening is Episode III, and that's three weeks ago. May seems lacking this year opposed to the last three Mays.
_________________
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:50 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm Posts: 9566
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Libs wrote: Also, I think this debunks that claim that Vin Diesel wasn't bankable that some of the champions of XXX Redux were making. I gurantee this would've made at least $25M more opening weekend with Diesel in the lead.
Unfortunately, I think this coupled with The Pacifier shows that Vin Diesel is an actual pull (in action movies). But I don't think it's that drastic... maybe $5 million. Remember that xXx opened in much more fertile August.
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:50 am |
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Animosity Reigns
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:41 pm Posts: 1777 Location: The Dirty South
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sigh @ friday's numbers 
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:50 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Well, Mission Imporrible DID do that. I actually forgot about that one. I prefer Mission Impossible over Bourne anyway.
So yeah already two franchises ahead of Bond and I am willing to bet that Mission Impossible 3 will outdo Casino Royal :razz:
Any how far can that go? The greatness of James Bond is the way the hero endures. He represents the perfect archtype, the suave, sophistacted, adventurer, always save the day, always get the girl kind of character. All the guys want to be him and all the girls want him. The series and character are an institution in modern pop culture and beyond. This is what led to my complete and utter disdain of the xXx franchise. You don't come out and start trying to tear an institution down to build yourself up like the first entry tried to do. Not on my watch.  I was very pleased that Die Another Day soundly handed the original xXx it's head, and now, James Bond lives on, and xXx is just another pretender, pushed to the wayside.
I am sorry for the series' fans that it tanked, but I'm not sorry considering my feelings for this series. You all will get over not actually losing any money, I'm sure. :razz:
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:50 am |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am Posts: 30505 Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Libs wrote: Also, I think this debunks that claim that Vin Diesel wasn't bankable that some of the champions of XXX Redux were making. I gurantee this would've made at least $25M more opening weekend with Diesel in the lead. I agree. But ah well, he has The Pacifier franchise now  Ice Cube and action just don't mix well. Last time he tried it with Torque which was overpredicted as well.
People actually over predicted Torque?
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:51 am |
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MGKC
---------
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Hee hee... Are We There Yet will beat xXx 2 opening weekend and total. I bet Sony never saw that coming..
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:52 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm Posts: 9566
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Mav's right.
This is why they still do James Bond movies. Becuase xXx, Mission Impossible will come and go, Bourne has a limited run and will end after part 3 or 4, but you could drop the 21st James Bond movie at any date on the calender and it would do 150+ in US dollars alone.
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:55 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Maverikk wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Well, Mission Imporrible DID do that. I actually forgot about that one. I prefer Mission Impossible over Bourne anyway.
So yeah already two franchises ahead of Bond and I am willing to bet that Mission Impossible 3 will outdo Casino Royal :razz: Any how far can that go? The greatness of James Bond is the way the hero endures. He represents the perfect archtype, the suave, sophistacted, adventurer, always save the day, always get the girl kind of character. All the guys want to be him and all the girls want him. The series and character are an institution in modern pop culture and beyond. This is what led to my complete and utter disdain of the xXx franchise. You don't come out and start trying to tear an institution down to build yourself up like the first entry tried to do. Not on my watch.  I was very pleased that Die Another Day soundly handed the original xXx it's head, and now, James Bond lives on, and xXx is just another pretender, pushed to the wayside. I am sorry for the series' fans that it tanked, but I'm not sorry considering my feelings for this series. You all will get over not actually losing any money, I'm sure. :razz:
You did not comment on my claim at all [-(
Do you agree that M:I-3 will outdo Casino Royale?
And sorry to tell it to you, Mav, but while box-office-wise the Bond franchise is on a rise, its quality is anti-proportional to its box-office. DAD is nowhere close a great Bond movie, but what is to be expected from a director who moved to direct a xXx movie after Bond? :razz:
Admittedly, Brosnan is a good Bond, but the screenwriters of the new Bond movies are simply bad. Nuff' said.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:57 am |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am Posts: 30505 Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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andaroo wrote: Mav's right.
This is why they still do James Bond movies. Becuase xXx, Mission Impossible will come and go, Bourne has a limited run and will end after part 3 or 4, but you could drop the 21st James Bond movie at any date on the calender and it would do 150+ in US dollars alone.
yes but the real question is .. how many in Singaporean dollars?
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:58 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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andaroo wrote: Isn't Crash's opening EXTREMELY limited? Will $10 million even be possible?
And deserving, I would think, of making more than xXx did. 1700 theaters as of now. There appears to be a small interest building online. I wish everybody here would see it opening weekend, as I think that we will have a lot of stuff to discuss at the forums.
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Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:58 am |
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