Revising my predictions

11/36

what is this :???: Am I the only person not lowballing this film. Even the punisher with way less buzz than elekra opened with 2m more than that, and the legs you gave it are to good, a 3.0 multiplyer out of elekra is very unlikely. I say the opening will be over 20m no matter how much the critics and the haters want this film to BOMB! infact it may suprise all of you and open over 30m.

:wink:

Ok...I did predict a little low... Ill change to 18/40

But are you serious dude? I mean Ill give ya props on MTF, but 30 million?...no way

Better but still an opening under 20m is something that I consider imposible for this film. I say 30m because pretty much everyone I know wants to see this film wether the critics liked it or not. I see that catwoman opened under 20m but there was much MUCH more bad buzz leading into its opening, the people didnt like catwoman much eather so they all avoided it, as for elekra the bad buzz did not start untill around monday when the critic reviews started to roll in. Catwoman had bad buzz over 6 months before its release and still opened over 15m.

I said that I would not be suprised if it opened over 30m, that doesnt mean that I think it will. I do think an opening over 20m is a lock and an opening over 25m should be considered. I have it pegged at 26m if my derby burns because of my prediction so be it.

Catwoman had bad buzz from day one - its "badness" came from the classic, camp sense of the word ala "Showgirls". Elektra however has only had some negative buzz from its reviews recently as the trailers were pretty fresh and exciting imo.

Whoa. Some of you low predictors are in for a shock this weekend.

Yes, I expect a weekend over 30m. The marketing has been great. Good special effects and lots of action packed ads should help give it a strong start.

A spinoff from a comicbook that didnt set the world on fire. You are almost talking about 75% of Daredevil's opening. Heck the last spinoff The Scorpion King was only able to muster half of The Mummy Returns' opening number. I cant see how Elektra will have over 25 million opening in January with reviews as bad as Catwoman. They really would have to rely on Garner's screen presence to muster that number. Its very unlikely for the movie to have close to $10,000 per theater average when that number is usually reserved for high profile summer movies

First of, The Mummy Returns was far bigger, so you can't really compare.

Secondly, the marketing and the special effects are great for Elektra, better then they were for DareDevil, and that is the only reason I would predict that it will open with nearly as much as DD. I don't really see how reviews matter in any way on opening weekend for a movie like this given its audience.

Furthermore, I don't think Catwoman's failure had anything to do with its score at RT. That film failed because of bad buzz that was in effect months before release, and because of weak marketing.

Movies and special effects these days are dime a dozen. Chronicles of Riddick had good special effects but it was vastly overestimated in its weekend openings. I think the special effects is in the eye of the beholder because those reviews said the FX wasnt that great and in some ways I agree after watching the clip. The asian gangleader speed movement fight borrows heavily from the necromacer guy in COR. Also the movie Elektra itself doesnt generate any following of any type, when I say that I mean that no one really has heard of Elektra other than that shes a B-level character in Daredevil. Alot of the opening weekend will depend heavily on the Alias fans

Seriously, Elektra's reviews don't mean anything this weekend. It can easily do great. Catwoman was very much trashed and talked about months before it's release, and people didn't like what they saw. Elektra not only has excellent marketing, but a trailer that can bring in any action lover. And I should remind you all that The Scorpion King wasn't exactly expected to do the opening it did, so we could be seeing the same going on for Elektra. Daredevil wasn't as big as other comic book movies because basically, it's not as well known. Spider-man, Hulk, Superman, Batman; these are all names that anyone could know. You would have to be really into comic books to know a lot about Daredevil.

the fact that alot more people on these forums are willing to accept "Elektra" speaks volumes for the wider public, for once.

My understanding is this. I really think critic reviews dont affect action films as demonstrated by Michael Bay films. Heres my problem though, the average action flick normally gets trashed by critics but they also manage to get over 20% at RT. Now you bring out a movie made by Uwe Boll and he attaches a good trailer to the film. All the 90 critics hate that movie except 5 so that gives it a 5%. You said that critic reviews dont matter at all but what about the 20% of the critics who seem to like action flicks and Michael Bay films. Heck lets say those critics have the same taste as you Zingaling. Now it brings me back to the 5% that only liked the film but how about the other 15% who normally loves these films but hated the Uwe Boll film.

What Im saying theres a chunk of critics with the same taste as you Zingaling but hated the film so does it mean that you should almost take their word for it since we always say that we should only take regular audiences word for everything

I don't think that 20% loves action films or has the same tastes at Zingaling. Generally those few positive reviews for films like this are near to being rotten, and often some aspect of the film, that mainstream audiences wouldn't care for, happened to cause them to give it a fresh review.

Take Hellboy for example. Although it is the "type" of movie that critics tend to hate, critics generally liked it. Now, while the RT score for the film was superb compared to such films, that was not reflected in wom. The reason for this is that critics like Del Toro's style while audiences don't prefer it over other action film directors. In the same way, the opinions of that 20% of critics doesn't mean that audiences will agree, because audiences are likely not to rate the film by the same criteria as those critics.

Action mainstream fans rarely listen to critics, if you think otherwise then why was summer of 2003 successful AT ALL?

I'm sure there are critics out there that have similar opinions to me. I just wouldn't take their word for any movie that interests me. If it's something I would like to see, I'd go in a heartbeat. I wouldn't have seen 80% of the movies I've seen last year if I listened to what the critics thought.

Opening Weekend

Nebs - $13.4 million
MovieDude- $16 million
Snickety Snack 2 - $16.4 million
lovemerox - $18 million
Roidrage - $18.5 million
BOYFRESH - $19 million
Pinkpanther - $20 million
jb007- $20 million
Korrgan - $20.3 million
Micasey300 - $20.5 million
Jon Lyrik - $21 million
Algren - $21 million
Naturalflux7 - $21.7 million
PublicEnemy#1 - $22 million
Zingaling - $22.4 million
Dr. Lecter - $23 million
Matatonio - $23.1 million
Hans - $23.5 million
BigMoviePimp - $24 million
DrMalcolm - $25 million
Archie Gates - $25 million
Mr. X - $26.4 million
ChipMunky - $26.8 million
RogueCommander - $26.5 million
BJ - $29.6 million
DP07 - $31.5 million
neostorm - $39 million

Total Domestic Gross

Nebs - $30 million
MovieDude - $38 million
BOYFRESH - $40 million
lovemerox - $40 million
Snickety Snack 2 - $41.2 million
Roidrage - $47.5 million
Algren - $51 million
Korrgan - $51.9 million
Micasey300 - $52.2 million
Jon Lyrik - $52.5 million
Naturalflux7 - $53.5 million
PublicEnemy#1 - $54 million
jb007- $57 million
Zingaling - $57.2 million
BigMoviePimp - $58 million
Dr. Lecter - $58 million
Pinkpanther - $58 million
Matatonio - $60 million
DrMalcolm - $63 million
Hans - $67 million
Archie Gates - $70 million
DP07 - $75.6 million
BJ - $76.4 million
RogueCommander - $80 million
ChipMunky - $80.4 million
Mr. X - $81.3 million
neostorm - $95 million


Oh, and I changed my opening weekend prediction to $22.4 million...

Why is Mikepepsis still up since i am he and he is me?

Opening weekend - $22.1 million

Total gross - $54.9 million

Ohhh yeah. Well, you know, if you had kept quite, you might have gotten away with that...

Opening: 19.4 million (4 day).
Final: 40.1 million.

You're Mikepepsi? Oh...

Nice way to speak to someone, Libs, not even the smallest bit condescending for no reason at all, honestly! [-X
The last time i was on BOM with mikepepsi....was a very long time ago. People can grow up and change in time [although evidently not everyone]. But don't worry your cotton socks, Libs, im not going to be on KJ nearly as much as i was on BOM since ive got lots of different priorities now. I would ask why you were rude there, but i wont .

Well, I have not made this prediction for any game, and I went lower for the article on the main site, but here I'll predict what I realy think it can do.

38m/91m

I would not be suprised by a 40m+ weekend, even 45m+. I believe this film will suprise like the Grudge and National Treasure. Other films that come to mind are AVP, I, Robot, and The Bourne Supremacy.

But did any of them stand at 5% at RT?