Gold prices is the answer apparently

Simple answer: a user-generated film. This isn't a new concept but one which hasn't been done on a major acale before. Take a film. Shoot multiple versions of segments of the film, to include the conclusion. The audience gets to choose at various points which branching path they want to take which obviously affects how the movie will play out. If the movie is GOOD, you get repeat business as every version in your movie-going experience is somewhat unique.

We'll know what it takes to beat it when its run is finished.

Is Frozen 2 completely out of the picture?

Yes Frozen 2 is not getting there.

How pissed would you be if you saw that movie three times and with the same end result because of the rest of the audience votes (or however you would decide what path the movie should take next)? I think it would be more frustrating than satisfying. People would just wait for the DVD. It's kinda how non impactful were those extras on some Marvel movies where depending on the reel you'd get to see some other extra scene. It made no difference whatsoever. People won't pay for a random chance of seeing something different.

Whatever the next evolution of 3D cinema is. I'm assuming it's some sort of high-end VR experience.

@Shack - exactly, and well-said.

@lilmac - based on Mr. Payback (which I went to but can't remember anything about other than button mashing), the choose your own adventure, video game style movie experience I think is about as extinct as extinct can get.

I didn't mean to sidetrack the conversation. I moved all the gold and libertarian comments to a water cooler thread.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79303&p=2088952#p2088952

Thanks mdana (I think)

Brainstorming odds at this point:

EPISODE 9: 30% (Ill prepared to do it now I think unless ALL STOPS are pulled out to redeem Last Jedi and make the action insanely good, tie up all loose ends, tie it in well to the original trilogy, maybe add a spectacular Maul-esque character, needs very high repeat view factor.... Densely packing schedule with SW though like with MCU will dilute audience of any one film.)

MCU: 15% (Nothing appears poised to do it soon - confined to the 400-800 range for now. Needs a monster finish with IW and a spectacular phase 4, especially if they can go big with Spider-man, but schedule is so densely packed it spreads out viewership a bit.)

AVATAR 2-5: 8% (Looks to take full advantage of the holiday potential, part 2 espcially by making the 2nd weekend 12/25-12/27 in 2020. If it actually comes out then. But I really don't see it doing 700+, let alone pushing 1B. Cameron is obviously capable but it will have to be improved 3D/Tech over anything we've seen so far, which will be expected/anticipated, but do enough people want to see more of this universe? Foolish to rule Cameron out completely given history. If part 2 doesn't do it, the only chance 3-5 have are if the films are so damn good and impressive looking that they build an audience over time like LOTR.)

EPISODE 10: 60% (Probably the best prospect at the moment, assuming released in mid/late December, at least 3 years after ep 9, and only if episode 9 does EVERYTHING right and sets up a new trilogy to maximum excitement, plus some time for build up and inflation.)

SW SPINOFF: 5% (If a trilogy starter or ender can't do it, it seems very unlikely a spinoff will do it - only a Vader one would have a chance.)

OTHER FRANCHISE CONTINUATION: 2% (Something like a Harry Potter 10 with original cast, or a big new Pixar franchise. Probably won't be Batman any time soon. Doesn't seem particularly likely, but another Pirates 2 could spring up out of nowhere.)

"ORIGINAL": 25% (Meaning not *directly* adapted from anything and not historical fiction like Titanic. This is what half the record breakers have been since Jaws: Avatar, Star Wars, E.T.)

ADAPTATION/HISTORICAL (NON SEQUEL): 10% (e.g. Jaws or Titanic. HP and Twilight have opened to records.)

Lion King has the best current odds, imo.

The only marvel possibility would be if there was ever an Avengers vs X-Men or something, although that might be tough since it won't include Jackman, McKellan, and Stewart.

Avatar 2 has the best chance of any upcoming film, but it's not likely. Or Star Wars if they resurrect Luke and add Ewan McGregor as Obi Wan via time travel or something.

Lion King has a chance but it would have to be better than the original, and I'm still not convinced the new film is going to work as expected. It's basically going to be a CGI remake.

Avengers with all the current characters + Deadpool + X-Men including Hugh Jackman as Wolverine + Fantastic Four could do it. There's so many fanbases right there.

It would take something with true universal appeal, from families to old people, and that attracts people who don't usually go to the theatre. Force Awakens did it because it had 40 years of pent up demand to see a sequel to Return of the Jedi. It's the most iconic franchise ever. It would take something on that level.

Well duh! It’s talking/singing animals.

It’s got the best shot out of anything I believe. 24-25 years since the classic animation. It’s going to do what Jurassic World did but a lot more.

I'm not so sure. Jurassic World was a continuation and took the story into new places. It wasn't just a straight up remake like Lion King is going to be.

No sequel and especially not a remake will top The Force Awakens. It will be an original movie with ultramarathon legs. You guys can forget Avatar 2, The Lion King remake, and any MCU flick. Ain't going to happen. Topping TFA also won't happen in the next ten years either, so none of the upcoming titles you have in your head are even in the game. Out of them all, Star Wars 9 would have had the best shot, but Disney fucked themselves over by having so many other SW properties release in-between.

We thought that SW7's OW record would stay and that didn't last long. I agree that it won't be a movie that's on our radar but I don't think it will take 10 years to reach the mark.

Well, could be 8, could 9, could be 11. I just mean that it won't be a film that is already cast and/or released in the next 3 years. It will be an original experience phenomenon, not a sequel or franchise film (unless there was a film that combined DC, MCU, Transformers, Frozen, Avatar, and Terminator lol)

It's hard to imagine any kind of remake ever taking the record, though Lion King would be the one with the best shot. Just think though it would basically have to beat the opening weekend record to do it and get a 3.5 mult in summer on top of that.

Any more, it's also hard to imagine the record not being broken from an opening outside of December 18-21, where it can open huge and get a full monster 2nd weekend after a monster week. At least until January starts to become fertile ground for blockbusters, which seems unlikely any time soon.

TLK's first run was gave it $683m total adjusted. Might even reach $800m with kids prices and skewed inflation number from BoM (and that's a BIG leap). Considering ALL its re-releases it adjusts to $816m (taking another BIG leap gets it to $900m). I don't think it will increase enough to get past SW7 specially when Disney seems to have messed up the schedule with three big live-action remakes in a single year.

A fucking remake ain't grabbing the domestic crown. Never going to happen.

Agreed but few people seem to think TLK has a chance. Just clarifying it doesn't.

Lion King is poised to disappoint me thinks

It doesn't even stand a chance to win its year.