Forgive me, but you're quite right.

Plus, I cannot seriously call someone hater when said person have Tim Duncan avatar. Even if he'd/she'd said just $56m for Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith opening day.

But you're reasonable I see, so I expect $75m opening day from you.



Lower would be just crazy. Crazy I say!

At the end of the day, Hitchiker's Guide is british humor that will appeal to a demographic audience who are familiar with the novels and have read them.. I'm pretty much predicting this one not to last very long at the theatres and perhaps do better on DVD where it should've went to begin with..

I can't be bothered to make a prediction until the estimates are up and I can take a shot at estimating the theatre drops etc. (without having to work out PTAs and stuff myself) but just browsing through, I'd say this lot seem about like what I was thinking. And so, in the interest of being lazy: "See Above."

If 2 Fast 2 Furious opened to $50 million (about $6 million more than the original) without Vin Diesel, why can't XXX: State of the Union open to $1 million more than the original without Vin Diesel? Not to mention, it's starting the summer season.

First off, Diesel wasnt the main thing about Fast and the Furious and people didnt go " Oh man I gotta see this movie because Diesel is in it " because nobody knew who the hell he was, but after Fast and the Furious he became much more popular and xXx was HIS movie. Second its not like 2 Fast 2 Furious opened at a horrible month, it came out in June, when kids get out of school, not to mention Fast and the Furious was a much better recieved movie then xXx.

The movie wont be a dud, it just wont be a hit like some of you think imo.

The Fast and The Furious was never about Diesel, it was always about the cars. And ripping off the plot of Point Break exactly. Remember also that, although Diesel was the breakout star of the first movie, the lead was always really Paul Walker - and he came back for the second one.

xXx had two things going for it; Vin Diesel and the Xtreme Bond angle. That the film managed to play out both of these things by the time the end credits rolled never really boded well for sequel prospects. With no Diesel and an audience still smarting from the last "Xtreme" antics, this movie doesn't really have much going for it (except for some shots of Ice Cube scowling adorably. He's so cuddly and cute!).

I predicted 28 earlier in this thread, but it could go lower. I think a better comparison than 2 Fast 2 Furious would be Charlies Angels: Full Throttle or Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life. Both were sequels to successful (but badly received) films that underperformed massively. And if you think Tomb Raider 2 did badly with Angelina Jolie on board, imagine how terribly it would've performed had they recast Ice Cube as Lara Croft.

THE FAST & THE FURIOUS was much better received by audiences than xXx. A lot of people enjoyed THE FAST & THE FURIOUS and a lot of people hated xXx. I don't even know anyone that liked xXx. I definitely wouldn't compare xXx 2 to 2 FAST 2 FURIOUS. 2 FAST at least had Paul Walker back, and he was the main star of THE FAST & THE FURIOUS, even if people went nuts over Vin Diesel after that and he was all they could talk about.

***MY EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND'S NEW WIDE RELEASES***

xXx 2: STATE OF THE UNION - 24.1 MILLION
HITCHHIKERS GUIDE TO THE GALAXY - 14 MILLION

Yes, but Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle's opening stayed consistent with the original's opening. The legs just sucked.

My main gripe with Hitchhiker's Guide is that the ads have been very very low key. I have barely seen any commercials for it on tv. It really had great potential to open big had they air alot more ads on tv. It looks like now XXX2 will open to a huger number than Hitchiker's Guide. I do agree with Killumanti about the reasons between Fast & the Furious and XXX, and I wont be surprised at all with XXX2 opening to a dissappointment

C'mon guys, people did not see 2 Fast 2 Furious because the "real lead" Paul Walker was in it. :razz: Everyone on the internet was laughing about how dumb it looked, and predicted a mid 20s opening weekend. See, what I think is so flawed about these predictions though is how people are acting like xXx has bad word-of-mouth. People, it cleared a 3.0 multiplier, and it only had one and a half weeks for true summer weekdays before school started to go back in session. And I think that Vin Diesel's subsequent films like Chronicles of Riddick and A Man Apart proved that Vin Diesel doesn't really sell well, and that xXx's success had much more to do with the action packed trailers, which this film hasn't lost (just like 2 Fast 2 Furious). Fact is, films have more potential to have huge openings earlier in the summer then later on. Three of the four biggest openings of 2004 had come by June's first weekend. In 2003, all four of the biggest openings of the summer opened in May. And in 2002 the two biggest openings of the summer had come before Memorial Day weekend. I'm not saying you can compare xXx to these, but the facts are in and this is simply a period with higher openings and often lower legs, just the nature of the beast. For xXx 2 to have the total I'm predicting, it'd open to about 37 million in the middle of summer, where many people are sick of sequels week after week. But with the huge ad campaign for an empty market, I'm just not sure how it'll underperform when people are clearly craving an action movie (just look at the amazing legs of Hostage and Sahara).

Exactly. If the first one was hated so much, why did it get a 3.2x multiplier in the late summer after a big $44.5 million opening weekend (which, by the way, it dropped 12% on it's first Saturday...)? I mean, honestly. It was a summer popcorn flick. People enjoyed it. 2 Fast 2 Furious had a lot more direct competition in 2003 than xXx: State of the Union has this year. Yet, that scored a $50 million opening weekend. And, the PTA only decreased about $400 between the two movies. If that were to happen for this movie, than xXx: State of the Union could do $43 million this weekend. Let's not forget this is the first weekend of the summer season. There's always a big blockbuster movie (which is usually critic-proof) because it's a mindless summer action movie. Cheesy, yet action-packed movies like Van Helsing wa able to get a $50 million opening weekend last year with its strong theater count, marketing, and the first weekend of summer.

I don't see how xXx: State of the Union can open with anything lower than $30 million. I just can't. That would be about a $8,000ish PTA, which would be less than The Chronicles of Riddick. I mean, how is that going to happen? Because of Ice Cube?

Wouldn't say CHARLIE'S ANGELS 2 "underperformed MASSIVELY!"

It made like $20M less than the original, and matched it's worldwide gross.

Yeah, I may have exaggerated there a bit. It was a disappointing run, but it hardly "underperformed massively".

I maintain that 2 Fast 2 Furious and xXx2 are completely different beasts however. I guess we'll find out in a weeks time...

Or will we?

Yes. We will.

XXX 2: State Of The Union - $28.0
The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy - $18.0
The Interpreter - $15.0
The Amityville Horror - $7.0
Sahara - $5.9

Now way XXX 2 opens over $40 million. Ice Cube is not Vin Diesel, and this whole thing reeks of the dreaded "sequel no one asked for" disease. The trailers/tv spots aren't even attempting to sell the film. It's just explosion, explosion, Ice Cube scowling, explosion, rolls credits.

With that said, Hitchhiker is also going to disappoint. I'm just not sure who this film appeals to. I don't think the people that made the film even know who it appeals to, and it shows in the tv spots. I like how the tv spots went on to do everything the trailer made fun of.

CHARLIE'S ANGELS: FULL THROTTLE was in no way as big of a disappointment as LARA CROFT: TOMB RAIDER - THE CRADLE OF LIFE. It still made over $100 million domestically and tons more internationally.

1. xXx2:State of the Union- 28 mil
2. Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy- 25 mil
3. Interpreter- 15 mil
4. Amityville Horror- 8 mil
5. Sahara- 6.5 mil

There is no way xXx2 comes anywhere close to the opening of the original. I loved the first movie but this one has a new director, and Ice Cube with his rappers. The last movie was Vin's and this has an similar feel to it as Speed 2 (new lead, Willy D as the villain).

I agree that it has no chance of making what the original did. I think it will make around $60-80 million total, depending on its legs.

XXX State of the Union - $27 million
Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - $22 million

I'm going to be amused when XXX Redux doesn't even approach $40M.

I think a lot of people are really overpredicting HITCHHIKER'S GUIDE. I think it's going to be a big disappointment.

Not many movies aimed at kids, so it has a chance do do very well, just depends how marketing goes from here on.

All in all I do hope Hitchhiker is more of a success then xXx2, Mos Def is such a better actor then Ice Cube and doesnt take steriotypical black roles like the rest of these rappers turned actors do ( though he did act a bit before he went into rapping ), he has talent and should be in many more movies. Either Def or Mekhi Phifer will become the next Denzel Washington.

That's extremely unlikely. It'll probably drop about 45%.

Well maybe and maybe not.. I mean, no one expected it to hold as well as it did over the weekend and what horror movie does??? This definitely has it's core audience and I think this has plenty of room at the box office competing with British humor like "Hitchiker's Guide" and "The Interpreter", plus the movie is just damn good and better than any horror we've seen in a long while..