I'd definitely go with Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. A lot depends on the final trailer, but I think it's the movie I've heard the second most about all year from people asking me about it. Unleahsed is one that people haven't been mentioning that I've been very on the fence about. The trailer has been getting fantastic reactions, Jet Li is coming off of Hero and more popularity then ever and Morgan Freeman just won an Oscar. But the gritty look may attract people (ala Man on Fire) or push them away, depending on how much of a marketing push it gets. Were it almost any studio I'd think it could pull off 25 million, but this is Rogue Pictures, which thusfar has dropped the ball on everything they've released. They got to give this one a big ad campaign and theater count, or else it'll get lost in the shuffle. It could do 14/40 or it could do 28/80, just depends on how it goes down.

Sahara. The trailers don't look good, the poster is horrible, but it could pull a National Treasure and surprise us all.

Charlie will flop, no doubt about it. I've been thinking about that since i heard Johnny Depp was inspired by Marilyn Manson, he's going to scare the hell out of the children. Also Tim Burton's only remake, Planet Of The Apes, was one of the worst movies i've ever seen, and that had a really good trailer.

I've heard that Tim Burton originally wanted Marilyn Manson himself to play Willy Wonka, but couldn't get him due to schedule conflicts. I think if it was Marilyn Manson in the lead, this movie wouldn't have reached 70 m, but due to Johnny Depp, i guess it might have a small chance of hitting 100 m.

If Marilyn Manson were the star of this, this movie wouldn't see the light of day except straight to DVD...

Hard to predict:

Charlie And The Chocolate Factory
Hitchikers Guide To The Galaxy
Red Eye

I totally agree with BKB. :-$

I haven't been as creeped out by a trailer for a kid movie since Cat in the Hat. And that pains me deeply since I Heart Johnny Depp.

My other big questions:

Fantastic Four - Will it be an X-Men? Or a Daredevil? I would really like this one to succeed, so I pray daily that it doesn't suck. [-o<

Batman Begins - They've already got the billboards up for this one, which means the studio is pushing very, very hard. (This film is still two and a half months away!) Of course, since I'm a Marvel Girl, I don't really care much about this movie. :razz: But to be honest, I don't think this one is going to do as well as some think. We've been there and done that with Batman, and for many, I think the novelty of yet another actor playing the bat guy may have worn off.

Bewitched - I think this is your Summer Sleeper Hit. If it doesn't suck, or course. It has a great trailer, and the potential to be a four quadrant picture attracting males and females of multiple generations.

The only thing in Charlie's favour at the moment is that the Johnny Depp - Tim Burton combo never delivered a bad movie before. In fact, Sleepy Hollow and Ed Wood are two of the best movies i've ever seen.

I think there're only three movies who can get the #1 spot this year:

- SW:RotS
- WotW
- Narnia

Don't underpredict The Chronicles of Narnia - I see more going for it than for a Harry Potter-movie. It could break out like the first LotR-movie, because there is a huge fanbase (many adults) and children will see it anyway...

I liked Ed Wood so much, but Sleepy Hollow was only so so. Edward Scissorhands was fantastic. That being said, that trailer gives me nightmares just thinking about it. That's why its so hard to prediuct, as you said, its a strong pairing, but it could also be a terrible movie. Or, it could be a great movie, but their marketing is horrible for it, so people don't buy tickets anyways.



Yeah. I actually have Narnia edging out RotS for number one. I don't see WotW being close to the broad appeal of the other two, and will make at least 50 million less than RotS. Narnia's got the family factor going for it more than the other two. Some outtake images look fabulous, and its has as much going for it as HP3, you definately right. I don't see it being as unpredictable as Hitchhikers Guide or even WotW.

I completely agree, even with alot of hype and marketing, I only see the film getting about 85m.

I agree that Narnia looks great. But I don't think it's going to get LOTR numbers, or be in contention to be number one for the year. And that is mostly because of the enormous competition this winter between Narnia, HP and KK. Those three movies should all be huge, and all have a similar audience.

I think that though the HP franchise has a downward trend, it won't fall below 220 million. There is an ton of hype and anticipation out there for KK, which has Peter Jackson and a terrific cast. So, of those three movies, Narnia is the biggest unknown as to how it will do.

Could all three of these end up being 200+ million dollar pictures?

(You were kidding, weren't you?)

(If not, you might amend this to say: "The general population can't really tell the difference between a good movie and a mediocre one.", and I would agree...)

I don't believe there to be such a thing as a good movie. There are just opinions. There is no objectivity to it considering different people have different criteria.

serenity will be a huge hit and war of the worlds will flop miserably. but i cannot really predict movies like house of wax - even though it looks good it is hard to predict.

Oh yeah, Serenity. 5% chance it's this monster hit, 95% chance it's a huge bomb since it's a massive budgeted movie based on some small sci fi thing no one has heard of. Totally reminescent of Chronicles of Riddick.

I said good and mediocre, not good and really bad. Anyone can get super-bored in a bad movie, or one that is just a little too confusing or weird (read: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory). But if its got fairly high production value, and decent story (which it will, because it has the book to follow) and the acting isn't totally horrible, kids will enjoy it. Parents might be a little bored, but they won't mind it. What surprised me about Garfield is that parents were willing to sit through it with their children. It was an all-out kids movie. This is a family movie, so, kind of like animation movies, can speak to a wider audiance. Personally, I don't see how kids could be turned off from this movie unless they really botch it.

Amen

Fantastic Four , as it could literally be this year's Pirates of the Caribbean.

I say it might be a sleeper hit, but now it's a September release so I am having doubts.

As hillbilly Billy Joe Sue says: Everythin' is relative!

Um....No, just no.

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory might be closer to the Book, but the fact that Gene Wilder made such a lasting, lasting impression as Willy Wonka will forever remain in the minds of folks who grew up with this including myself and that alone is a major strike against it and will be in the reviews to.. Johnny Depp is a Fantastic Actor and all, but he does have some incredible shoes to fill with this..

That remains to be seen and I do have my doubts.. I really honestly wish I could be more excietd about this movie since I was an avid reader of this comic when I was a kid along with Spiderman and The HULK, but I'm just not feeling anything toward this primarily cause it just looks so cheaply done.. I also feel the same way for BATMAN BEGINS.. I wish I could be as excited about this as the comic fans are, but God if those last 2 movies aren't holding my enthusiasm for this back regardless if Nolan directed it or not and the Tumbler looks like shit and they should've just stuck with the traditional Batmobile look.. I feel like I should be chewing some Tobacco and watching a TNT Redman Monster Truck Pull when I see this..

And I am sure you were saying the same thing if anybody suggested POTC being a bigger hit than 150 million.

FF4 is not going beyond 220.

Well, anything's possible, but i think one of main reasons of POTC 's success was the uniqueness of the film. It was the first adventure to be released in a long time. That isn't the case with Fantastic Four, there are a LOT of SuperHero movies these days. Also THAT performance by Johnny Depp, and I highly doubt the acting in Fantastic Four will be of the same quality

If you look at Fantasctic Four, you'll find that Batman Begins ( another superhero movie ) will be released 1 month before it, and War of the Worlds the week before it, so they will definitely hurt it.

Also history told us that it's nearly impossible for 2 superhero movies to succeed in the summer.
Summer 2004: Spiderman 2: 375 m & Catwoman: 40 m
Summer 2003: X2: 214 m & LXG: 65 m

Assuming Batman Begins will succeed ( IMO it will cross 200 m, but just barely ), i don't see fantastic four getting more than 160 m, if it's really good.