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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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 mary wrote: shades033 wrote: I have to agree with those who think Cursed will make less than $20 million. I might even go so far as to say that Hitch will be #1 again next weekend.
The last time Wes Craven's name was attached to something (They) it bombed, and not only does Cursed look like crap, but he's pretty much washed his hands of the movie because he wasn't happy with how it turned out when edited down for a PG-13. True horror fans will know this. Also, Scream 3 was five years ago...the young people who were into that are now five years older and not into the whole teen horror thing, a genre which was played out by the number of imitators. This looks like a return to that sort of horror rather than the more modern kind...which is generally remaking a classic or something very strange like the Japanese horror phenom. I love werewolves and I would love to see Craven get a third wind in his career (the second being Scream) but I just don't think this will be the movie to do it. However, Horror movies is more popular than it were in 2002. If White Noise can get $24 million opening, why CURSED can't? And that in 800 theatres less... _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Feb 20, 2005 11:17 pm |
 
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am
Posts: 11675
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I dont think Cursed will do as well as most of the other horror movies from 2005, but I don't see any reason why it would do much worse. I'd go with an 18 million opening weekend.
Man of the House won't do great business, but Cedric the Entertainer definitely sells, and there is something kind of funny about Tommy Lee Jones having to babysit a bunch of cheerleaders. I'd go with an opening of about 10 million even.
As for Diary of a Mad Black Woman, let's not underestimate this one guys. It's been getting a lot of hype around my urban areas, so I think it could do just under 10 million, maybe 9 million or so. As long as the reviews aren't awful
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| Sun Feb 20, 2005 11:22 pm |
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mary
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 4:35 am
Posts: 1255
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No press screenings for "Man of the House"= very bad sign
It will be lucky to get $6 million opening.
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| Sun Feb 20, 2005 11:24 pm |
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm
Posts: 28110
Location: Awaiting my fate
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Regarding Diary of a Mad Black Woman
Johnson Family Vacation had terrible reviews and it opened with $9 million, en route to nearly $30 million
Are We There Yet? opened to similarly abysmal reviews and it grossed $18 million en route to $80 million+
Even last year's Woman Thou Art Loosed: The Movie Experience opened with medicre reviews (around 50% positive) and it grossed a very solid $5,000+ PTA.
With all that in mind, I expect a healthy $7,000-$8,000 PTA its opening week and a 3.0 multiplier.
Therefore, with an estimated opening in 1,500 theaters, I predict: $10,500,000 opening weekend and just over $30,000,000 overall.
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See above.
Last edited by Jeff on Sun Feb 20, 2005 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Sun Feb 20, 2005 11:30 pm |
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mary
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 4:35 am
Posts: 1255
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RogueCommander wrote: Regarding Diary of a Mad Black Woman
Johnson Family Vacation had terrible reviews and it opened with $9 million, en route to nearly $30 million
Are We There Yet? opened to similarly abysmal reviews and it grossed $18 million en route to $80 million+
Even last year's Woman Thou Art Loosed: The Movie Experience opened with medicro reviews (around 50% positive) and it grossed a very solid $5,000+ PTA.
With all that in mind, I expect a healthy $7,000-$8,000 PTA its opening week and a 3.0 multiplier.
Therefore, with an estimated opening in 1,500 theaters, I predict: $10,500,000[/u[ opening weekend and just over[u] $30,000,000 overall. I heard a person, who has seen Diary of a Mad Black Woman, says that it's a very Christian film(like Woman Thou Art Loosed).
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| Sun Feb 20, 2005 11:45 pm |
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm
Posts: 28110
Location: Awaiting my fate
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The biggest detraction is that the author (?) Tyler Perry crossdresses as one of the main female characters.
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| Sun Feb 20, 2005 11:49 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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If Oprah supports Diary of a Mad Black Woman like she did with Woman Art Thou Loosed, I see a $7-8 million opening. Without it, around $5-6 million. People overestimated The Ladykillers, and that had Tom Hanks. I don't see anything appealing about Diary of a Mad Black Woman, and it didn't get much of a reaction when I saw the trailer with Hitch. I don't see a $10 million opening.
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| Mon Feb 21, 2005 12:22 am |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48678
Location: Arlington, VA
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Zingaling wrote: If Oprah supports Diary of a Mad Black Woman like she did with Woman Art Thou Loosed, I see a $7-8 million opening. Without it, around $5-6 million. People overestimated The Ladykillers, and that had Tom Hanks. I don't see anything appealing about Diary of a Mad Black Woman, and it didn't get much of a reaction when I saw the trailer with Hitch. I don't see a $10 million opening. You're also *not* a black woman. 
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| Mon Feb 21, 2005 12:36 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Libs wrote: Zingaling wrote: If Oprah supports Diary of a Mad Black Woman like she did with Woman Art Thou Loosed, I see a $7-8 million opening. Without it, around $5-6 million. People overestimated The Ladykillers, and that had Tom Hanks. I don't see anything appealing about Diary of a Mad Black Woman, and it didn't get much of a reaction when I saw the trailer with Hitch. I don't see a $10 million opening. You're also *not* a black woman. I might be... :-$
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| Mon Feb 21, 2005 12:40 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 19415
Location: San Diego
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Zingaling wrote: Libs wrote: Zingaling wrote: If Oprah supports Diary of a Mad Black Woman like she did with Woman Art Thou Loosed, I see a $7-8 million opening. Without it, around $5-6 million. People overestimated The Ladykillers, and that had Tom Hanks. I don't see anything appealing about Diary of a Mad Black Woman, and it didn't get much of a reaction when I saw the trailer with Hitch. I don't see a $10 million opening. You're also *not* a black woman. I might be... :-$ Quite a revelation... I shall quote that. Oops, I just did.
Anyways, for next weekend I see Hitch getting #1, Cursed getting 15 million (I'd be really surprised if it gets more than 20 m) and I'm having a hard time predicting Constantine's drop...
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| Mon Feb 21, 2005 12:43 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Constantine will probably drop around 55-60%. That's pretty much expected. If it had a drop under 55%, that'd be great.
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| Mon Feb 21, 2005 1:11 am |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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Cursed 20.2 million
Man of the House 6.8 million
Starr Jones' Diaries-A portrait of an Angry Black Woman 6.5 million
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| Mon Feb 21, 2005 2:47 pm |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm
Posts: 6228
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Judging from all the predictions on this thread: Prediction Ranges:
Cursed- $16M-$26.1M
Man Of The House- $5M-$11.5M
Diary Of A Mad Black Woman- $6M-$11.5M
Average Prediction:
Cursed- $20.5M
Man Of The House- $8.6M
Diary Of A Man Black Woman- $7.9M
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| Mon Feb 21, 2005 5:52 pm |
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Bodrul
All Star Poster
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 11:21 am
Posts: 4694
Location: Cambridge, England.
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Man of the house reminds me of welcome to mooseport.
Predictions:
Cursed - 18m
Hitch - 17.5m
Constantine -12.9m
Man of the house - 9m
Diary of a mad. . - 8.5m
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| Mon Feb 21, 2005 6:45 pm |
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Impact
Kiera Knightly is my lady!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:18 pm
Posts: 8773
Location: New Mexico
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1. Hitched 22.9
2. Cursed of the Pearl 15.0
3. Constanatine: The Matrix 4 11.4
4. Because of Lassie 8.4
5. Man of the House: not to be confused with another film with the same title 7.0
6. Million Dollar Movie 5.9
7. Are We finnally There Yet? 4.8
8. Diary of a Happy Black Woman 4.4
9. Aviator: Best Picture Winner? 3.7
10.Son of the Mask: The Carreyless Years 3.5
11. Sidewalks 3.4
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| Mon Feb 21, 2005 7:40 pm |
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MGKC
---------
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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1. Cursed - $22.5 (NEW)
2. Hitch - $19.7 (-38%)
3. Constantine - $11.0 (-64%)
4. Diary of a Mad Black Woman - $9.6 (NEW)
5. Man of the House - $6.9 (NEW)
6. Because of Winn-Dixie - $6.6 (-38%)
7. Million Dollar Baby - $6.1 (-15%)
8. Are We There Yet? - $4.2 (-35%)
9. Son of the Mask - $4.1 (-47%)
10. The Aviator - $4.0 (-5%)
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| Mon Feb 21, 2005 11:23 pm |
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm
Posts: 28110
Location: Awaiting my fate
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Libs wrote: Zingaling wrote: If Oprah supports Diary of a Mad Black Woman like she did with Woman Art Thou Loosed, I see a $7-8 million opening. Without it, around $5-6 million. People overestimated The Ladykillers, and that had Tom Hanks. I don't see anything appealing about Diary of a Mad Black Woman, and it didn't get much of a reaction when I saw the trailer with Hitch. I don't see a $10 million opening. You're also *not* a black woman. Exactly. Neither am I. But the genre/market has been underestimated for so long.
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| Mon Feb 21, 2005 11:34 pm |
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Impact
Kiera Knightly is my lady!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:18 pm
Posts: 8773
Location: New Mexico
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Casey you are aware that diary is only on 1300 theaters arnt you?
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Isn't it ironic that Hollywood mocks Gibson for drunk driving yet praises Polanski who molested a child? Or praises Edward Kenedy who killed someone while drunk driving?
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| Tue Feb 22, 2005 12:11 am |
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RB652
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:23 pm
Posts: 403
Location: New York City
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Cursed- 18.2m
Man Of The House- 11.5m
Diary Of A Mad Black Woman - 5.3m
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| Tue Feb 22, 2005 2:09 am |
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misterglass
Iron Man
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:56 pm
Posts: 678
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Oprah is recommending "Diary" but it's a really different movie from "Woman Thou Art Loosed"..the latter is a serious drama about a woman trying to break free of the bad things affecting her life...."Diary" is the same...but interspersed with a guy dressed as a woman cracking jokes. I've seen "Diary" and it is AWFUL. I'd be surprised if there are a lot of good reviews for it because it's such a mess.
(And I should add that Woman made around $6-7 million TOTAL...it had a decent opening PSA but that in a third the theatres.)
As far as Cedric in "Man of the House"...I'm willing to be that he's in the movie 15 minutes or less. The reason he's being featured in the commercials is because his appearance would sell the movie whereas Tommy Lee Jones or the premise might not. (The reason I suggest this is that it doesn't say "starring Cedric" in the commercials..it specifially says "Tommy Lee Jones and *featuring* Cedric the Entertainer".) I think that will be doing View from the Top type numbers.
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| Tue Feb 22, 2005 9:13 am |
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Tyler
Powered By Hate
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:55 pm
Posts: 7578
Location: Torrington, CT
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People are underestimating the urban markets here.
However, the urban market is as unpredictable as Howard Dean in a David Lynch film.
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It's my lucky crack pipe.
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| Tue Feb 22, 2005 1:15 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am
Posts: 11675
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shades033 wrote: Oprah is recommending "Diary" but it's a really different movie from "Woman Thou Art Loosed"..the latter is a serious drama about a woman trying to break free of the bad things affecting her life...."Diary" is the same...but interspersed with a guy dressed as a woman cracking jokes. I've seen "Diary" and it is AWFUL. I'd be surprised if there are a lot of good reviews for it because it's such a mess.
(And I should add that Woman made around $6-7 million TOTAL...it had a decent opening PSA but that in a third the theatres.)
As far as Cedric in "Man of the House"...I'm willing to be that he's in the movie 15 minutes or less. The reason he's being featured in the commercials is because his appearance would sell the movie whereas Tommy Lee Jones or the premise might not. (The reason I suggest this is that it doesn't say "starring Cedric" in the commercials..it specifially says "Tommy Lee Jones and *featuring* Cedric the Entertainer".) I think that will be doing View from the Top type numbers. The only difference is that Diary has been getting a much bigger ad campaign and will be playing in over three times as many theaters. Loosed wasn't even playing in Oregon opening weekend.
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| Tue Feb 22, 2005 4:09 pm |
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Impact
Kiera Knightly is my lady!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:18 pm
Posts: 8773
Location: New Mexico
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MovieDude wrote: Loosed wasn't even playing in Oregon opening weekend. Same thing here in New Mexico, it wasn't playing here.
_________________
Isn't it ironic that Hollywood mocks Gibson for drunk driving yet praises Polanski who molested a child? Or praises Edward Kenedy who killed someone while drunk driving?
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| Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:00 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48678
Location: Arlington, VA
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Early Predictions
1. Hitch - $20.3 million
2. Cursed - $17.2 million
3. Constantine - $15.4 million
4. Because of Winn-Dixie - $9.0 million
5. Diary of a Mad Black Woman - $8.5 million
6. Man of the House - $7.8 million
7. Million Dollar Baby - $5.9 million
8. Are We There Yet? - $5.0 million
9. The Aviator - $3.8 million
10. Sideways - $3.4 million
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| Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:13 pm |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm
Posts: 6228
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Lee's Movie Info:
CURSED $17.5M
Weekend Warrior:
CURSED $17.5M
Maybe their bang on? Or maybe their both Underpredicting/Overpredicting.
I still think CURSED can pull over $20,000,000.
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| Wed Feb 23, 2005 5:38 pm |
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