Oh, and I agree with makeshift on this one. Boogeyman's advertising has been great and very positive. I heard a lot of people talking about Boogeyman when I was in Hide and Seek last night, so the awareness is quite high. Horror movies have been on a roll lately (Alone in the Dark is a comedy!!!), and this one won't break the trend. $20 million weekend.

Boogeyman - $27M
The Wedding Date - $4.5M

Boogeyman is gonna do big #s on Friday and Saturday. I think about $11M Friday, $11.5M Saturday, $6.5M Sunday. The superbowl will lower it's Sunday but it won't hurt it's weekend too bad. More will just see it on Friday and Saturday.

But Darkness Falls was PG-13 as well and that got lots of marketing as well. I see Boogeyman making $16-18 million at most. I mean, this is the third horror movie 2005 and we are just getting into February? Don't you think there will be a slight overload? I mean, it'll also have to fend off Hide and Seek's 2nd weekend. Also, why should it open better than Hide and Seek? I mean, that film had great advertising as well, got 3,000+ theatres and starred Robert De Niro who was just coming off Meet the Fockers.

Boogey Man-15.5 million (market already saturated with horror movies and no known star I heard of too)
Wedding Date-7.5 million

I like these. Sound reasonable.

I think your right all it needs is an opening day over 10m and a wknd well over 20m is to be expected, afterall it is PG i think it may pull of a huge 25m+ wknd

Wow. Just because Hide & Seek did so well dosen't mean Boogeyman's a sure thing.

The original marketing material was very poor, Especially for a Sony picture. Although the website et all have turned things around a little.

The trailer is dumb and not scary. There are no major names attached to this aside from Sam Raimi; and its pretty obvious that The Boogeyman is not going to be getting sparkling reviews.

The past few weeks have seen a horror overdrive, the only thing that has hopes of bolstering Boogeyman up is a PG13 rating.

The Wedding Date was full of promise, but its just not had a marketing drive at all - and buzz has been next to none. Yet it will probobly play well over a longer peroid of time if reviews permit...but ive got a feeling they aren't gonna.

Your right out of all the people I have asked very few are acually anticipating the film, But it is PG so I think it may be able to pull in those that would normaly not want to see a horror/thriller film.

I dont think that its posible to have a horror overdrive because they all fall off the face of the earth after opening wknd. And its always fun to see a freeky movie no matter what day of the year. I think the fact that the film is PG should be able to make it pull in some $$$. I also expect an opening wknd over 20m thought the people I asked were not anticipating the film much I think they wil still watch it anyway.

I dont know what to think of the wedding date yet Ive only seen one or two T.V. spots for it and they didnt get me all that interested.

The original trailer was dumb but the commercials have been amazing. The guy from Lost is in it, will help it a little. It's got the 'From the makers of the Grudge' labeled on it, and The Grudge was damn popular for some reason. $20M will be a cinch, I just predicted a little higher.

Wedding Date will open to $15+ million people. It's the only date movie out there now. Any couples looking to see movie on a friday/ saturday night will go see this.

i bet my last dollar on it. \:D/

Every big horror movie seems to be underpredicted in this site for some reason. Guys, just because you think the trailer looks crappy doesn't mean the teens out there do. The trailer reactions have been fairly positive, and with the PG-13, I don't see how this can make any less than $15 million. I think $20 million is definently a great chance, even with Superbowl weekend. Horror is becoming bigger and bigger, and all this needs is a Hide and Seek PTA to make $20 million. Hide and Seek was rated R, so people underpredicted it, and it makes $22 million opening weekend. Similarly, White Noise, The Grudge, The Forgotten, and other recent horror movies have been great successes.

Zing its PG :wink:

PG?! What are you talking about?!

MPAA Rating: PG-13 (for intense sequences of horror and terror/violence, and some partial nudity)

http://www.comingsoon.net/films.php?id=5092

Just because its a horror doesnt mean that they would open over 20 million every time. We still havent mentioned a certain doll named Chucky making a comeback. If everytime a horror movie opens big, we will see a surgance of straight to video horror make the big screen. The feel of Boogyman looks like a straight to video movie with not even one B-list actor's name attached to it. With the clout of so many horror movies already out there, Boogeyman wont get that much share of the pie. It was the same deal back in April when a slew of action movies came out, the Punisher,Walking Tall and Hellboy were all overpredicted

Also, don't forget, Boogeyman was actually supposed to go DTV, but in the last moment, the studio decided to release it theatrically

BOM has it down for PG :wink:

Well, even the official website has it at a PG-13. I would never depend on BOM for something like this. If it were PG, it would be a god awful movie, and I don't think it would make too much either.

Haha

Well, it's not PG, but if it was, I'd seriously be laughing...after the trend of PG-13 horror movies, we'd be looking at a trend of PG horror movies. Then in a year or two, originally PG-13 horror flicks would be cut, so they can be PG...

and in 10 years, we'll see G-rated horror films...

I dont see the Wedding Date being that potent with sucha low theater count - but i hae a feeling that it could do quite well, and will almost certainly holdover very well to ensure some form of expansion. Its obviously more adult orientated than "Hitch" which also does its legs a favour. But the same grown up women have a tendancy of telling all their Desperate Housewive friends if a movies good or bad.

But over 2,000 theaters in weekend one is the very lowest that this movie needs to be a success.

1. Boogeyman - $22 million
2. Are We There Yet? - $12.7 million
3. Hide and Seek - $9.9 million
4. Million Dollar Baby - $9.4 million
5. The Wedding Date - $9 million

I'm starting to wonder about The Wedding Date. On the one hand, Debra Messing has not proved she can open a movie, given that this is her first starring role in one. On the other hand, it's opening in February and it's the first romcom in a long time, perhaps since Shall We Dance.

Like the unexpected success of that movie, I'm beginning to think The Wedding Date may do well.

Libs, as much as ive touted the film to do well - its advertising campaign has been abysmally non existent.
I think it will be a solid, leggy performer, but could have been so much more because the niche of older women that this seems to be targetting is so rarely served.

Final BOOGEYMAN predictions:

Going by the 2,600 est count.

Either:
$16,900,000 ($6,500pta)

or
$20,800,000 ($8,000pta)

Im almost CERTAIN it will be between

$16M-$25M

BoogeyMan -- $19.45 million (lower due to SuperBowl Sunday)
The Wedding Date -- $13.1 million
Are We There Yet? -- $9.02 million (-45%)
Million Dollar Baby -- $9.00 million (-25%)
Hide and Seek -- $10.65 million (-50%)

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Hotel Rwanda -- $3.0 million