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 1/28-1/30 Predictions 
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Indiana Jones IV

Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 4:35 am
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MovieDude wrote:
Were Hide and Seek PG-13, I'd guess it could've opened to nearly 20 million. But this is R, so it will be more limited to an adult audience, and I think they'll be too sidetracked on more of the Oscar contenders. That and personally, I'm just not seeing how Dakota Fanning as a serial killer is scary. Should it get good reviews, I'll boost my prediction, but right now, I'm expecting about 20-40% on RT.

NOTE: Oh yeah, and so far all the reviews I've read have been firing this movie to kingdom come, and the director's only other film was the classic known as Swimf@n.


:cry:

I personal hope that "Hide and Seek" will get mostly posivite reviews, but it isn't likely to happen. :cry:


Last edited by mary on Sun Jan 23, 2005 12:17 am, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Jan 23, 2005 12:17 am
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The Kramer
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Hide and Seek $14.3M
Million Dollar Baby $12.6M
Alone In The Dark $10.5M

breaking the January opening madness


Sun Jan 23, 2005 12:17 am
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Indiana Jones IV

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Anyway, I think that "ARE WE THERE YET?" will remain No.1 at this weekend.

Family movies always have good legs.


Sun Jan 23, 2005 12:19 am
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Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
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1. Hide and Seek - $15.2 million
2. Million Dollar Baby - $12.3 million
3. Are We There Yet? - $10.1 million
5. Alone in the Dark - $8.9 million
4. Meet the Fockers - $7.5 million


Sun Jan 23, 2005 4:19 pm
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Iron Man

Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:56 pm
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mary, I believe the name of the movie is "HIDE and Seek". I agree with Zing on this one, and I can't see it making less than $15 million this weekend.

And you're so wrong about Alone in the Dark. Teens and young adults have taste and most of them are way too smart to think that anything starring Christian Slater and Tara Reid will be good. I will be shocked if that makes more than $5 million.

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Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:31 am
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Indiana Jones IV

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shades033 wrote:
mary, I believe the name of the movie is "HIDE and Seek". I agree with Zing on this one, and I can't see it making less than $15 million this weekend.

And you're so wrong about Alone in the Dark. Teens and young adults have taste and most of them are way too smart to think that anything starring Christian Slater and Tara Reid will be good. I will be shocked if that makes more than $5 million.



If House of the Dead can makes more than $5 million, why Alone in the Dark can't? Lions Gate(in 2005) is a much better distributor than Artisan(in 2003).


PS: In fact, I am surprised that Lions Gate, which bought us Open Water, Saw , House of 1000 Corpses and Cabin Fever, is willing to acquire North American distribution rights of Alone in the Dark. :-k

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/arch ... c9326.html

Maybe Lions Gate know somethings we don't knoe..... :-k


Mon Jan 24, 2005 6:13 pm
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Horror Hound
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Lions Gate do do well with HORROR.

Cabin Fever, House Of 1,000 Corpses, Open Water and Especially SAW were all massive money making hits.


Mon Jan 24, 2005 6:21 pm
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Hide and Seek -- $19.45 million (new)
Million Dollar Baby -- $12.03 million (+627%)
Are We There Yet? -- $10.73 million (-42%)
Alone in the Dark -- $7.3 million (new)
In Good Company -- $6.79 million (-15%)
Meet the Fockers -- $5.9 million (-40%)
The Aviator -- $5.75 million (+18%)
Coach Carter -- $5.35 millon (-50%)
Sideways - $3.97 million (+42%)
Racing Stripes - $3.74 million (-45%)
Assault on Precinct 13 -- $3.38 million (-48%)
The Phantom of the Opera - $2.92 million (-35%)

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Mon Jan 24, 2005 8:40 pm
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Sbil

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
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You guys, keep in mind that Sideways is apparently expanding to about 1700 theatres this weekend. Given that's about an increase of 1,000 theatres, it'll most likely have a large increase. I mean, I'm thinking at least over 50%.


Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:19 pm
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College Boy Z

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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New predictions.

1. Hide and Seek - $19.1 million
2. Million Dollar Baby - $14.8 million
3. Are We There Yet? - $11.2 million
4. Alone in the Dark - $7.4 million
5. Meet the Fockers - $6.3 million


Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:27 pm
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1. Hide and Seek - $17.1 (NEW)
2. Are We There Yet? - $12.8 (-31%)
3. Million Dollar Baby - $12.4 (+650%)
4. Coach Carter - $6.9 (-35%)
5. Meet the Fockers - $6.0 (-38%)
6. Alone in the Dark - $5.6 (NEW)
7. In Good Company - $5.4 (-33%)
8. Sideways - $4.6 (+60%)
** Racing Stripes - $4.3 (-36.5%)
** Assault on Precinct 13 - $3.7 (-43%)

Expect urban and artsy films to have small drops. Coach Carter has two things going for its 3rd weekend: no snow and it's Paramount. Mean Girls fell a hefty 44% its 2nd weekend like any Paramount film, then rebounded its 3rd by falling 25% and continuing its good legs. Manchurian Candidate did the same as well.


Mon Jan 24, 2005 10:52 pm
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Libs wrote:
You guys, keep in mind that Sideways is apparently expanding to about 1700 theatres this weekend. Given that's about an increase of 1,000 theatres, it'll most likely have a large increase. I mean, I'm thinking at least over 50%.


I'm waiting until I see the Oscar noms to make any predictions on that, The Aviator, or Million Dollar Baby.


Mon Jan 24, 2005 11:39 pm
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Yeah, I may up my prediction for Sideways. Currently I have it at $3.97 million, but I think it could easily gross $5.5 million.

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Mon Jan 24, 2005 11:46 pm
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So the noms are out, push for Million, Sideways, Aviator, and Phantom I think!!


Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:59 am
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Sbil

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lamcam wrote:
So the noms are out, push for Million, Sideways, Aviator, and Phantom I think!!


I don't think Phantom of the Opera will see any noteworthy push this weekend, since it only got technical nominations.


Tue Jan 25, 2005 4:44 pm
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Extraordinary

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Libs wrote:
lamcam wrote:
So the noms are out, push for Million, Sideways, Aviator, and Phantom I think!!


I don't think Phantom of the Opera will see any noteworthy push this weekend, since it only got technical nominations.


Any nominations are good because the tv spot can start saying "Now nominated for 3 academy awards". Probably not much more expansions, but it will hang in there for a while.

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Tue Jan 25, 2005 5:24 pm
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Indiana Jones IV

Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:41 pm
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xiayun wrote:
Libs wrote:
lamcam wrote:
So the noms are out, push for Million, Sideways, Aviator, and Phantom I think!!


I don't think Phantom of the Opera will see any noteworthy push this weekend, since it only got technical nominations.


Any nominations are good because the tv spot can start saying "Now nominated for 3 academy awards". Probably not much more expansions, but it will hang in there for a while.


Usually, well at least at my theatre, the best weekends for nominated films are the week after nominations, the week before the oscars and the week after...

the 3 weeks in between now and then dont really do much


Wed Jan 26, 2005 9:42 pm
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Sbil

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Updated/Close to Final Predictions
1. Hide and Seek - $16.1 million
2. Million Dollar Baby - $14.7 million
3. Are We There Yet? - $11.5 million
4. Coach Carter - $6.9 million
5. Meet the Fockers - $6.5 million
6. Sideways - $6.3 million
7. The Aviator - $6.1 million
8. In Good Company - $5.4 million
9. Alone in the Dark - $5.0 million
10. Racing Stripes - $4.2 million


Thu Jan 27, 2005 4:45 pm
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College Boy T

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm
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Coach Carter - $6.8m
Meet the Fockers - $6.9m
In Good Company - $6.5m
Racing Stripes - $4.3m
Assault on Precinct 13 - $3.7m
White Noise - $4.17m
The Aviator - $8.3m
Are We There Yet? - $8.4m
Sideways - $6.7m
Hide and Seek - $15.4m
Million Dollar Baby - $13.2m
Alone in the Dark - $5.0m

A lot of you are underestimating The Aviator. If it increases 250% on Friday, it's virtually set for a $9.5m+ weekend.


Last edited by torrino on Thu Jan 27, 2005 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Thu Jan 27, 2005 6:26 pm
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Updated (very small drops all around):

1. Hide and Seek - $19.2 mil
2. Million Dollar Baby - $14.5 mil
3. Are We There Yet - $11 mil
4. The Aviator - $8 mil
5. Meet the Fockers - $7.5 mil
6. Coach Carter - $7.3 mil
7. In Good Company - $6.6 mil
8. Alone in the Dark - $5.9 mil
9. Sideways - $5.8 mil
10. Racing Stripes - $4.4 mil


Thu Jan 27, 2005 8:18 pm
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Updated Predictions:

1. Hide & Seek - $20.4 (NEW)
2. Million Dollar Baby - $13.2 (+700%)
3. Are We There Yet? - $12.3 (-34%)
4. The Aviator - $8.5 (+75%)
5. Sideways - $7.1 (+150%)
6. Coach Carter - $6.9 (-35%)
7. Meet the Fockers - $6.6 (-32%)
8. In Good Company - $5.6 (-30%)
9. Alone in the Dark - $5.2 (NEW)
10. Racing Stripes - $5.0 (-26%)
11. The Phantom of the Opera - $4.8 (+5%)
12. Assault on Precinct 13 - $4.3 (-34%)

Huge weekend for all movies!


Thu Jan 27, 2005 10:03 pm
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1. Million Dollar Baby 16.5 million
2. Hide and Seek 15 million
3. Are We There Yet? 12 million
4. The Aviator 7.5 million
5. Coach Carter 7 million
7. Alone in the Dark 6.5 million


Fri Jan 28, 2005 12:04 am
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The Kramer
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I'm gonna agree with Moviedude on Hide and Seek not taking #1, it just doesn't look that good. AOTD is gonna surprise alot of you, it looks so stupid that it may be impossible to resist.

#1: Million Dollar Baby - $14.7M
#2: Hide and Seek - $12.3M
#3: Are We There Yet? - $11.2M
#4: Alone In The Dark - $9.8M
#5: The Aviator - $8.8M
#6: Coach Carter - $7.3M
#7: Sideways - $6.8M
#8: Meet The Fockers - $6.2M
#9: In Good Company - $5.9M
#10: Racing Stripes - $5.5M


Fri Jan 28, 2005 12:10 am
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Hide and Seek -- $19.45 million (new)
Million Dollar Baby -- $13.43 (+700%)
Are We There Yet? -- $9.62 million (-48%)
Meet the Fockers -- $7.38 million (-45%)
The Aviator -- $7.3 million (+50%)
In Good Company -- $6.79 million (-15%)
Alone in the Dark -- $6.3 million (new)
Coach Carter -- $5.35 millon (-50%)
Sideways - $4.05 million (+45%)
Racing Stripes - $3.74 million (-45%)
Assault on Precinct 13 -- $3.38 million (-48%)
The Phantom of the Opera - $2.92 million (-35%)

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Fri Jan 28, 2005 12:33 am
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Final Fredictions

Hide and Seek - 18.4 (at least a 6000 PTA)
Are We There Yet - 10.7 (-42%)
Million Dollar Baby - 10.5 (At least a 5000 PTA)
Alone in the Dark - 7.8 (House of the Dead like PTA)
Aviator - 7.7 (midweek lead to a 60% increase)
Fockers - 6.3
Coach - 6.3
Sideways - 6.2 (Over 3500 per screen)
In Good - 5.0
Racing - 5.0
Assault - 4.0
Phantom - 3.4

Most of the holdover drops are very low because of last weeks storm. The reason why I am giving these predictions now is because I might be gone this weekend and I have no time for an article this weekend. Sorry everyone.

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