:???: it is are obove Pirates at the moment and this wknd will be also without the 4-day thanks to the massive increase this holiday suplies films on saturday, and MTF is still over 20m ahead which will only help it over time, this 280m prediction you have going is to low fockers is now far enough into its run for the wknd to wknd drops to not be affected by frontloadedness. I expect Fokcers to smash Pirates, I think fockers will be at 300m by wknd 9. Pirates was not at it till wknd 15 and by then it was not making over 1m a wknd, when fockers passes 300m it will still be making over 1m a wknd. Fockers has a lot more holidays to benifit from than pirates did. Eather way 300m is IMO a lock. :wink:

Indeed. Also the market was desperately in a need for a good adventure film and it got one with POTC. It was also helped by the fact that it had little direct competition in the upcoming weeks. T3, American Wedding and Bad Boys 2 were both R-rated, Spy Kids 3D was rather for the youngest folks, Seabiscuit for older ones, Tomb Raider 2 had a predecessor that was universally hated. The first real direct competition was released a mont later with S.W.A.T. and remained the only one for a while since Freddy vs. Jason was R-rated as well. This way, Pirates of the Caribbean was the only BIG MUST-SEE PG13-rated movie of the summer since X2 and Bruce Almighty already topped out by the time Pirates of the Caribbean was released.

Still before it came out almost everyone doomed it to bomb because no one considered the idea to base a movie on a theme park ride to be a good one.

Well by the end of the 4-day it will have $234 mil, and if it keeps up an endless stream of 30% drops, then by the end of week 9 it should have $292 mil. But next weekend's drop might be higher, plus we can't count out if there will be some surprise drops later on.

Next weekend, it'll definitely drop 35% AT LEAST, I'd say since oscar-hopefuls (The Aviator, Sideways) will probably gain after the Golden Globes and might slightly hurt it too. That of course added to the fact that Are We There Yet? is a comedy as well that might hurt it and the fact that it'll be coming off a holiday weekend. I'd say a 38% drop for the next weekend and regular ~30% drops after that.

I have a prediction posted in the MTF thread check it out its pretty accurate may be a litttle optomistic but I have every day tracked up to its last wknd over 1m :wink:

I think its far enough into its run to avoid a drop over 35% especialy with the great WOM it has, I say a drop between 30%-33% :wink:

I don't think so. It IS coming off a holidy weekend and it'll have still a lot of competition. In Good Company will expand and so will The Phantom of the Opera added to the opener Are we there yet? which will be another underpredicted urban film.

I still think Meet the Fockers might be able to edge out Pirates, just barely. Around $310 million total.

It will be a close race and next weekend's drop will be pretty crucial.

Even tough it is coming off a holiday wknd I dont think that will affect the wknd much otherwise it would have fallen much harder coming out of christmas/new years. There is competition but I think MTF can keep its vieweres. I say 20m for IGC 15m-20m for Are we there Yet, and how does The Phantom of the Opera reach this genre :???: And IGC is much more drama based than comedy so it wont harm MTF much if at all and if it were to harm MTF it would have this wknd but it didnt. Are we there Yet is a comedy but its a much different kind that would apeal to kids more so than MTF would so its more of a family watch with means it wont harm MTF much eather. And there is no posible way that The Phantom of the Opera would ever harm MTF considering how much money it is making per wknd anyway. So MTF is home free with the only set back being that it is coming of a holiday wknd but its already showed that holidays dont affect how much it drops much :wink:

Meet the Fockers is not immune to competition. In Good Company's marketing doesn't bring over the drama feeling, much more the comedy one and Are We There Yet is direct competition. I do not think a 35% drop is avoidable.

it will show that it is ultimately immune to any cometition :wink: I still think that IGC will not affect it, if it were to have than fockers definately would not be making another 20m this wknd over the 3-day and would not be over 25m for the 4-day but thats not going to happen so Fockers is not affected pretty much at all by IGC. As for Are we ther Yet Ive explained why that that film will ultimately not affect Fockers eather. You thought this film would fall like a stone after the holidays were over it hasnt, it has showed great staying power. The film droped under 35% in a much more imortant wknd of its run than next wknd will be. I say this film will drop under 35% and maybe even under 30% if it can proove that holidays have absolutely no negative affect its run :wink:

We'll see. I stick with my prediction as of now, predicting $13-13.5 million.

Pirates of the Caribbean vs. Meet the Fockers:


Weekends:

Weekend gross - % Change - Theatres - (PTA) - Total gross


Weekend 1:

Pirates of the Caribbean - $46,630,690 - NEW - 3,269 - ($14,265) - $70,625,971

Meet the Fockers - $46,120,980 - NEW - 3,518 - ($13,110) - $70,517,720


Weekend 2:

Pirates of the Caribbean - $34,034,597 - -27.01% - 3,359 - ($10,132) - $133,007,414

Meet the Fockers - $41,741,785 - -9.5% - 3,524 - ($11,845) - $162,461,370


Weekend 3:

Pirates of the Caribbean - $23,136,029 - -32.02% - 3,416 - ($6,773) - $176,838,155

Meet the Fockers - $28,498,160 - -31.7% - 3,527 - ($8,080) - $204,297,870


Weekend 4:

Pirates of the Caribbean - $18,844,044 - -18.55% - 3,390 - ($5,559) - $209,531,292

Meet the Fockers - $19,316,095 - -32.2% - 3,554 - ($5,435) - $231,110,125

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl vs. Meet the Fockers



Daily:

Day - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (% Change) / Meet the Fockers (% Change)


DAY 1 - $13,509,262 (NEW) / $12,066,740 (NEW)

DAY 2 - $10,486,019 (-22.4%) / $12,330,000 (+2.2%)

DAY 3 - $14,841,094 (+41.5%) / $7,159,130 (-41.9%)

DAY 4 - $17,414,693 (+17.3%) / $19,542,490 (+173%)

DAY 5 - $14,374,903 (-17.5%) / $19,419,360 (-0.6%)

DAY 6 - $7,504,567 (-47.8%) / $13,913,690 (-28.4%)

DAY 7 - $7,351,137 (-2%) / $12,629,620 (-9.2%)

DAY 8 - $7,056,602 (-4%) / $11,486,275 (-9.1%)

DAY 9 - $6,434,540 (-8.8%) / $12,172,280 (+6%)

DAY 10 - $10,505,198 (+63.3%) / $12,140,180 (-0.3%)

DAY 11 - $13,095,414 (+24.7%) / $18,271,940 (+50.5%)

DAY 12 - $10,433,985 (-20.3%) / $11,329,665 (-38%)

DAY 13 - $5,332,285 (-48.9%) / $4,422,620 (-61%)

DAY 14 - $5,449,233 (+2.2%) / $3,189,220 (-27.9%)

DAY 15 - $5,082,012 (-6.7%) / $2,801,580 (-12.2%)

DAY 16 - $4,831,182 (-4.9%) / $2,924,920 (+4.4%)

DAY 17 - $6,814,619 (+41.1%) / $8,835,135 (+202.1%)

DAY 18 - $8,965,800 (+31.6%) / $12,944,090 (+46.5%)

DAY 19 - $7,355,610 (-18%) / $6,718,935 (-48.1%)

DAY 20 - $3,582,589 (-51.3%) / $1,851,675 (-72.4%)

DAY 21 - $3,596,200 (+0.4%) / $2,046,995 (+10.5%)

DAY 22 - $3,274,773 (-8.9%) / $1,763,450 (-12.9%)

DAY 23 - $3,395,531 (+3.7%) / $1,834,040 (+4%)

DAY 24 - $5,651,711 (+66.4%) / $5,615,320 (+206.2%)

DAY 25 - $7,405,885 (+31%) / $8,227,615 (+46.5%)

DAY 26 - $5,786,448 (-21.9%) / $5,473,160 (-33.5%)

DAY 27 - $2,841,937 (-50.9%) / $3,198,555 (-41.6%)

DAY 28 - $2,747,535 (-3.3%) / $1,190,590 (-62.8%)

It's beginning to fall behind. PoTC has decresed MTF's lead from $28 million last weekend to just under $21 million this weekend. I definately don't see MTF topping PoTC at this point.

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl vs. Meet the Fockers



Total grosses:


Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl / Meet the Fockers


DAY 1 - $13,509,262 / $12,066,740

DAY 2 - $23,995,281 / $24,396,740

DAY 3 - $38,836,375 / $31,555,870

DAY 4 - $56,251,068 / $51,098,360

DAY 5 - $70,625,971 / $70,517,720

DAY 6 - $78,130,538 / $84,431,410

DAY 7 - $85,481,675 / $97,061,030

DAY 8 - $92,538,277 / $108,547,305

DAY 9 - $98,972,817 / $120,719,585

DAY 10 - $109,478,015 / $132,859,765

DAY 11 - $122,573,429 / $151,131,705

DAY 12 - $133,007,414 / $162,461,370

DAY 13 - $138,339,699 / $166,883,990

DAY 14 - $143,788,932 / $170,073,210

DAY 15 - $148,870,944 / $172,874,790

DAY 16 - $153,702,126 / $175,799,710

DAY 17 - $160,516,745 / $184,634,845

DAY 18 - $169,482,545 / $197,578,935

DAY 19 - $176,838,155 / $204,297,870

DAY 20 - $180,420,744 / $206,149,545

DAY 21 - $184,016,944 / $208,196,540

DAY 22 - $187,291,717 / $209,959,990

DAY 23 - $190,687,248 / $211,794,030

DAY 24 - $196,338,959 / $217,409,350

DAY 25 - $203,744,844 / $225,636,965

DAY 26 - $209,531,292 / $231,110,125

DAY 27 - $212,373,229 / $234,308,680

DAY 28 - $215,120,764 / $235,499,270

I agree. Pirates of the Caribbean's immense weekdays will help it to stay ahead of Meet the Fockers.

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl vs. Meet the Fockers



Daily:

Day - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (% Change) / Meet the Fockers (% Change)


DAY 1 - $13,509,262 (NEW) / $12,066,740 (NEW)

DAY 2 - $10,486,019 (-22.4%) / $12,330,000 (+2.2%)

DAY 3 - $14,841,094 (+41.5%) / $7,159,130 (-41.9%)

DAY 4 - $17,414,693 (+17.3%) / $19,542,490 (+173%)

DAY 5 - $14,374,903 (-17.5%) / $19,419,360 (-0.6%)

DAY 6 - $7,504,567 (-47.8%) / $13,913,690 (-28.4%)

DAY 7 - $7,351,137 (-2%) / $12,629,620 (-9.2%)

DAY 8 - $7,056,602 (-4%) / $11,486,275 (-9.1%)

DAY 9 - $6,434,540 (-8.8%) / $12,172,280 (+6%)

DAY 10 - $10,505,198 (+63.3%) / $12,140,180 (-0.3%)

DAY 11 - $13,095,414 (+24.7%) / $18,271,940 (+50.5%)

DAY 12 - $10,433,985 (-20.3%) / $11,329,665 (-38%)

DAY 13 - $5,332,285 (-48.9%) / $4,422,620 (-61%)

DAY 14 - $5,449,233 (+2.2%) / $3,189,220 (-27.9%)

DAY 15 - $5,082,012 (-6.7%) / $2,801,580 (-12.2%)

DAY 16 - $4,831,182 (-4.9%) / $2,924,920 (+4.4%)

DAY 17 - $6,814,619 (+41.1%) / $8,835,135 (+202.1%)

DAY 18 - $8,965,800 (+31.6%) / $12,944,090 (+46.5%)

DAY 19 - $7,355,610 (-18%) / $6,718,935 (-48.1%)

DAY 20 - $3,582,589 (-51.3%) / $1,851,675 (-72.4%)

DAY 21 - $3,596,200 (+0.4%) / $2,046,995 (+10.5%)

DAY 22 - $3,274,773 (-8.9%) / $1,763,450 (-12.9%)

DAY 23 - $3,395,531 (+3.7%) / $1,834,040 (+4%)

DAY 24 - $5,651,711 (+66.4%) / $5,615,320 (+206.2%)

DAY 25 - $7,405,885 (+31%) / $8,227,615 (+46.5%)

DAY 26 - $5,786,448 (-21.9%) / $5,473,160 (-33.5%)

DAY 27 - $2,841,937 (-50.9%) / $3,198,555 (-41.6%)

DAY 28 - $2,747,535 (-3.3%) / $1,190,590 (-62.8%)

DAY 29 - $2,292,919 (-16.5%) / $995,120 (-16.4%)

DAY 30 - $2,314,476 (+0.9%) / $1,066,335 (+7.2%)

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl vs. Meet the Fockers



Total grosses:


Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl / Meet the Fockers


DAY 1 - $13,509,262 / $12,066,740

DAY 2 - $23,995,281 / $24,396,740

DAY 3 - $38,836,375 / $31,555,870

DAY 4 - $56,251,068 / $51,098,360

DAY 5 - $70,625,971 / $70,517,720

DAY 6 - $78,130,538 / $84,431,410

DAY 7 - $85,481,675 / $97,061,030

DAY 8 - $92,538,277 / $108,547,305

DAY 9 - $98,972,817 / $120,719,585

DAY 10 - $109,478,015 / $132,859,765

DAY 11 - $122,573,429 / $151,131,705

DAY 12 - $133,007,414 / $162,461,370

DAY 13 - $138,339,699 / $166,883,990

DAY 14 - $143,788,932 / $170,073,210

DAY 15 - $148,870,944 / $172,874,790

DAY 16 - $153,702,126 / $175,799,710

DAY 17 - $160,516,745 / $184,634,845

DAY 18 - $169,482,545 / $197,578,935

DAY 19 - $176,838,155 / $204,297,870

DAY 20 - $180,420,744 / $206,149,545

DAY 21 - $184,016,944 / $208,196,540

DAY 22 - $187,291,717 / $209,959,990

DAY 23 - $190,687,248 / $211,794,030

DAY 24 - $196,338,959 / $217,409,350

DAY 25 - $203,744,844 / $225,636,965

DAY 26 - $209,531,292 / $231,110,125

DAY 27 - $212,373,229 / $234,308,680

DAY 28 - $215,120,764 / $235,499,270

DAY 29 - $217,413,683 / $236,494,390

DAY 30 - $219,728,159 / $237,560,725

WEEKS


Week 1:

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl - $98,972,817
Meet the Fockers - $120,719,585


Week 2:

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl - $54,729,309
Meet the Fockers - $55,080,125


Week 3:

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl - $36,985,122
Meet the Fockers - $35,994,320


Week 4:

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl - $29,040,911
Meet the Fockers - $25,766,695

At this point, I definitely don't see Meet the Fockers overtaking Pirates of the Caribbean. The gap is less than $18 million now and the weekdays are going to push Pirates of the Caribbean ahead soon.

BJ says its not over till its over Fockers still has a shot :2up:

It doesn't seem like it will now, but it's still an amazing run.

Pirates of the Caribbean vs. Meet the Fockers:


Weekends:

Weekend gross - % Change - Theatres - (PTA) - Total gross


Weekend 1:

Pirates of the Caribbean - $46,630,690 - NEW - 3,269 - ($14,265) - $70,625,971

Meet the Fockers - $46,120,980 - NEW - 3,518 - ($13,110) - $70,517,720


Weekend 2:

Pirates of the Caribbean - $34,034,597 - -27.01% - 3,359 - ($10,132) - $133,007,414

Meet the Fockers - $41,741,785 - -9.5% - 3,524 - ($11,845) - $162,461,370


Weekend 3:

Pirates of the Caribbean - $23,136,029 - -32.02% - 3,416 - ($6,773) - $176,838,155

Meet the Fockers - $28,498,160 - -31.7% - 3,527 - ($8,080) - $204,297,870


Weekend 4:

Pirates of the Caribbean - $18,844,044 - -18.55% - 3,390 - ($5,559) - $209,531,292

Meet the Fockers - $19,316,095 - -32.2% - 3,554 - ($5,435) - $231,110,125



Weekend 5:

Pirates of the Caribbean - $13,022,470 - -30.9% - 3,170 - ($4,108) - $232,750,629

Meet the Fockers - $9,683,260 - -49.9% - 3,446 - ($2,810) - $247,243,985


Weekend 6:

Pirates of the Caribbean - $9,167,599 - -29.6% - 2,710 - ($3,382) - $248,720,985

Meet the Fockers - $8,026,165 - -17.1% - 3,006 - ($2,670) - $258,372,305