After $114million weekend, c'mon i bet we were all sure this was going to plumet after the opening, considering star wars was around the corner.

As i said before after the first two wknds it was pretty clear who the winner was 8)

Scream? Blade? Matrix? Friday?

Another advertised as being the last with its cast: Star Trek Nemesis.

Furthermore, every time I can think of a 3rd film ourgrossing the 2nd, it was a case in which the 2nd had excellent WOM all around. Additionally, when they do outgross the second movie, they do so by a small amount. There are hardly any to outgross by more then 10% (the ones that do were very small to begin with, such as Mad Max).

I can't see how it has any shot at 400m or even 350m. I agree with MovieDude's prediction of 280m.

EDIT: Just saw MovieDude's much more complete list. I think the evidence clearly shows that the 3rd film tends to gross less then the second.

no

why would that aply to the final star wars film :?: this filmn can go eather direction, at the moment it looks like it will out gose episode 2.

I think I have to ask you those questions in reverse:
-Why shouldn't ROTS be like other final films in trilogies? Why would SW be different, especially given the fact that wom for AOTC might not have been overwelmingly poor, but it certainly wasn't outstanding either.

-What about it makes it look to outgross the 2nd?

Also, I don't think you are correct in thinking that the multiplier will remain above 3. From TPM to AOTC it dropped from about 6 to about 3.5, which might have given AOTC nice legs for a franchise film like that, but it is still a huge drop. If it can drop from 6 to 3.5, why couldn't it drop from 3.5 to 2.9 for this time around?

Furthermore, you predict that the opening day will jump to 40m from about 30m. For AOTC it only increased about 2m from TPM. Why should it increase about 10m this time around?

ROTS will not be like other final chapters of a franchise because it is the final film of the most popular franchise in american movie history. The fact that the 2nd film still had a multiplyer over 3.5 after the horbile film that TPM was is proof that this series has a larg draw no matter what. Even the people that were disapointed the episode 1 and 2 will want to see the final chaper of star wars more than once. WOM for episode 1 was much worse than it ever was for episode 2, But you are right in WOM being one of the key factors in seeing what this film can do. This film will outgross AOTCs due to it being the final film of the best franchise in american film history.

My opening day prediction is (38.4m didnt even have to chech it 8) ) not 40m. AOTCs opening day was 4m higher than TPMs, When I was creating the opening wknd setup I gave ROTS I was thinking of another 20m+ opening wknd boost over the last film. My whole prediction is based on personal opinion so it is natural that a lot would not agree with it. As for the opening day increase it will be of around 8m not the 10m your thinking. I realise i gave it a day over 40m and Im going to change that as i have relised that this film will not have one day obove 40m.

Now for the multiplyer talk, AOTC had a 3.8 without Imax and had around a 3.95 with the Imax gross included. I give this film a multiplyer over 3.0 for the main reason of it being the last star wars film maybe Im wrong but we wont know till around 8-9 months from now when the film is well into its release.

I only expect a gross over 400m any gross below that would be a major disapointment considering its the final film.

I see/understand where your coming from but I honestly think that does not aply what so ever to a film in this franchise.

BJ, the opening day for AOTC was $30,141,471. For TPM: $28,542,349. So, the difference is about 1.6m, not 4m.

As for the multiplier, when calculating it for Wed. or Thur. openers, you have to subtract the previous BO when doing the calculation. Otherwise, you are counting the Wed. and/or Thur. gross as being an indication of legs, when they are not. Earning more BO before opening weekend does not show legs, in fact, it shows the opposite.

With that method you get a multiplier of 3.505 for AOTC with IMAX, and about 3.4 without it.

I want to comment on the rest, but I need to get to bed. Tomorrow maybe. :wink:

:? weird :? any way we can finish this latter today as you said earlyer 8)

Ok, yeah, it may be "the last Star Wars ever" but as DP07 stated, saying you're the last movie of a series does NOT always help the box office. Nemesis is a perfect example. Obviously Star Wars and Star Trek aren't in the same position, but that didn't open to 40 million because it was "the last movie!". George Lucas himself has been saying for ages now that he expects Episode 3 to gross the least of the franchise, as it's the darkest. Look back at the original trilogy, and which movie grossed the least? The darkest one (though taking inflatio into account, the "last" Star Wars movie actually made the least).

ROTS will not make 400mill......it will make 450MILL.

Fare enough :wink: darn your right the darker the film the less it grosses well Ill lower the prediction into the 280m-320m range looks like there is only one film with a shot at 400m next year. WTW oh yeah 8)

At the time Nemesis was released in America, it WASN'T the last Star Trek film and was not marketed as such.

The cast made the decision to leave after it flopped.

I don't think anybody's really come up with a compelling reason why it can't make $400 million. I think it's a crapshoot, it could do either. Box Office Mojo and World of KJ have always not really represented the fanbase, but there are fathers who will take their kids out to this because it *is* Star Wars. And Darth Vader... and Chewbacca... and the duel.

Outside of the internet, many more people love Attack of the Clones than hated it, I have found.

the enternet croud has a very weird taste in films. Doesnt bother me though I love AOTCs A. Though I did thing that TPM was a complete borefest worst star wars film, yet still gets a B+ from me 8)

Most of the publicity for this years movie has mainly been concentrated on WOTW and Batman Begins so far from magazines like Premiere and the internet so far. It seems to be the publicity for SW so far has been calmed quite a bit since the Attack of the Clone days. I really agree with MovieDude's prediction that it will make somwhere in the 280 million range,same amount as Matrix Reloaded (even Reloaded received alot more publicity in magazines like Time and that was like 6 months before it opened). I think everyones fanaticism for the series is making them overpredict the movie like they did for Spongebob and Team America

Is that right? So why have so many talkshow host like John Stewart and Jay Leno crack a joke about the Star Wars series and its fan. And all the time they get an applause. Dont forget that AOTC was barely fresh at RT. So who are these fans who actually loved AOTC and is a non-nerdy fan?

I am not a Star Wars fan at all (heck, it's not even one of my top 3 trilogies) and I hated The Phantom Menace (giving it a D+), but I have to admit that I liked AOTC a lot, enough to end in my TOP 10 of 2002 with an A-.

would you call me a nerd just because ESB is my favorite film of all time and I liked AOTC a lot :?: anyway I give the other films of the franchise an A except for Episode 1 I give it a B+ worst star wars film of all time.

Oh well Im going to make a multiple choice summary to sum up my thoughts

"__________ will do well just because its second sequel didnt do as well as the first one but we are talking about the last of its trilogy"

a)Crocidile Dundee 3
b)ROTS
c)Beverly Hills Cop 3
d)Back to the Future 3
e)Matrix Revolution
f)all the above

"You cannot compare ____________
a)Crocidile Dundee 3
b)ROTS
c)Beverly Hills Cop 3
d)Back to the Future 3
e)Matrix Revolution
f)all the above

with ___________

a)Crocidile Dundee 3
b)ROTS
c)Beverly Hills Cop 3
d)Back to the Future 3
e)Matrix Revolution
f)all the above

__________ will duplicate the success of its original series. Why would people even care about the WOM for its second sequel

a)Crocidile Dundee 3
b)ROTS
c)Beverly Hills Cop 3
d)Back to the Future 3
e)Matrix Revolution
f)all the above

We are talking about the final series where ______________
a)Michael Dundee
b)Darth Vader
c)Axel Foley
d)Marty Mcfly
e)Neo

____________
a) challenges Stever Irwin to a gator match
b) unveils himself in one of those plastic halloween mask
c) played by Eddie Murphy in his last rated R role before he becomes all family mellowed out
d) stabs Doc in the back and takes his delorean, assasinates Hugh Hefner and takes over his business
e) last comment was Whoa when Trnity dies

:? whats the point your trying to get across :?:

My girlfriend, for one. She loved Attack of the Clones and only liked the others.

Even though it needs no explaining at all and you would of got the point already. Im saying its rare for a third sequel to have a better run than its previous let alone matching the first movies gross. Except for ROTK but then again Two Towers had great WOM which I don't see AOTC having that any at all. What was your estimated gross for ROTS. 500 million you said again. Oh thats simple math for me to do since I would just use your total gross and divide it by two and add 80 million to it

fare enough. I never said that its final gross would be 500m I said it would be 410m but than movie dude pointed out that darker films have worse legs than the other films so I told him I would lower my prediction to the 280m-320m range 8) where did i say that it would make over 500m :?:

I was certain you mentioned 500 million in that 2005-200 million thread. Maybe I just misread

oh, I put question marks by that it was more of an optomistic possibility than a prediction 8)