I'd honestly not be surprised with a $45m opening, and $115m total. But I officially predict $149m.

Nolan is smart to expand his target demographic beyond teenage boys - adding a cute boy band pop star will help bring out the teenage girls too.

Pro still has it at $240. They need to get reviews out asap.

According to Deadline, Dunkirk is only tracking at $35 million. I realize this is a couple of weeks from now, but it would need ridiculously fantastic WOM and reviews (like The Matrix-type run) for this to happen if this number turns out to be in the range.

It's not going to open in that range. I don't think this is topping $60m or something,though.

I think it'll open around Interstellar but finish with above $200M if WOM is strong.

Right now I don't see this doing above Interstellar unless it reaches must see level, which wouldn't surprise me since it's Nolan.

Apes and Spidey may combine for $70m+ on its opening weekend. That doesn't help.

Saving Private Ryan (which opened in the same July slot) adjusts to $57m OW. That was with stunning reviews and Hanks/Spielberg star power.

i would think Dunkirk will fall short of this but perhaps not by much. $45-$50m seems likely.

SPR was a hard R rating too, though.

True. This is more accessible and also has a major IMAX push so SPR adjusted isnt a stretch.

Saving Private Ryan was Tom Hanks and Steven Spielberg at the height of their respective fames doing D-Day. A Dunkirk-evacuation movie with a cast of British and Irish character actors is not going to compete. Dunkirk will be Nolan's smallest movie since The Prestige. I expect it to finish in the neighborhood of 130 million.

Yeah SPR isn't a good comparison for this either. That had the Spielberg/Hanks combo plus a famous WW2 backdrop. Nolan has his fanbase, but as much as fanboys want to believe he's on the same level as Spielberg I don't think he's quite there yet as far as general audience recognition goes. The truth is this will be facing a lot of completion from both Spider-Man: Homecoming and War for the Planet of the Apes which are also both getting great reviews so far.

If Spielberg directed this movie, it would do no better. No American characters, no American story, no huge name American actor helping sell it to audiences. I don't care who the director is, this is a tough sale to make in the domestic market...especially right now when a lot of people just want to escape the reality of global politics.

If Spielberg made this film back in 1998, it would do better than Nolan making it now.

It really has no selling point with general audiences other than "directed by Christopher Nolan". Without him, it would do Unbroken numbers AT BEST, and possibly in the neighborhood of Hacksaw Ridge.

This time Nolan has no star power to help him.

Without Hanks, I disagree. It's a tough sale no matter what. The only thing better about your suggested scenario is that the WW2 generation hadn't died off in 1998.

I wonder how big this will be in England and China. The former is obviously its home turf: where the story has the most patriotic resonance, where the stars have the most cultural clout, etc. And it will be interesting to see how it performs in the latter as a very British war movie, albeit one with a lot of spectacle; it has cleared the Chinese censors and will apparently be released there later in the year.

On another note, I am still hugely surprised this is only around 105 minutes long. I never in a thousand years would have expected less than maybe 150 minutes considering the genre and the fact Nolan's films have become progressively longer, with Interstellar flirting with three hours.

Might do well in France considering it is a French place.

105 minutes does seems too short for this kind of movie, specially with the 5 minutes IMAX preview movie shown it looks like it will be a slow burner.

70MM and IMAX 70MM tickets go on sale tomorrow, regular tickets go on sale this Friday. Previews start at 6pm.

I typed "Dunkirk" into Google and it comes with up the film, but titled "Dunkirk 70mm".

Dunkirk IMAX has been steady on Pulse all day. Not a monster but not $35m low either.

What? You thought that looked like a slow burner? Wow.