I tried to look at 2024 films that had expectations like Top Gun Maverick and Barbie the year before their release. If history repeated itself, something around the range of the ones above would make an astonishing 600-700 million.

If you had to choose, which of these is the shocker breakout?

Wicked has huge potential if it doesn’t suck. Oz the great and Powerful adjusts to over 300m despite being a stinker.

If you reached you could claim Maverick and Barbie tapped into desire for old school masculinity/femininity. Of the list I suppose Gladiator 2 being macho would fit the pattern the best, maybe Wicked in the other direction.

Mmm. Ya I don't see it for any of these.

Gladiator seems like it'd do 200s at best unless it's like phenomenal. Same for Wicked, especially with part 1.

Twisters. Nostalgia + somewhat relevant (I've seen a lot of tornado videos on TikTok lately) + four quadrant spectacle event movie. 90% it doesn't happen but it could be a Jurassic World scenario.

I re-watched The Wizard of Oz a few weeks ago and afterwards was thinking about just how much of a footprint that movie has left on the culture, more than just about any singular film aside from like, the original Star Wars. If Wicked can tap into that, especially since its direct source material is also arguably the most successful new musical of the century, then it could totally break out on that level. At the very least, it's my pick to win the year ATM.

Fall Guy is intriguing because it's Gosling's post Barbie movie and Blunt's post Oppenheimer movie. Maybe people looking to capture the moment will watch it?

Mickey 17 with Pattinson and Joon-Ho's post Parasite movie looks promising and a complete wildcard.

Furiosa has so much Mad Max goodwill so its a wildcard how big it could go.

Beetlejuice 2 is a random but it's going to have nostalgia, buzz and viral elements for sure.

Gladiator 2 and Wicked for reasons already stated.

Karate Kid post Cobra Cai + Christmas holidays is an interesting combo.

It's not gonna be any of these. Or maybe it will be. Barbie had Barbenheimer and Maverick had the Ukraine war as completely unexpected mammoth marketing boosts. How does Twisters achieve that? How does anything?

guessing it's 600m domestic, which none of these movies will even do half of

I think none of the above.

A more traditional franchise film like Deadpool 3 or Joker 2 will end up being huge ($500 or 600m+)

Those already seem predestined as they are mega expectations movies.

If they somehow do end up releasing TPOTC2 I wouldn't say it's impossible for it to get to $600M+ if Sound can do $190M. The original film could adjust to $665M by next year. I think its more probably $300M range.

I don't know anymore....lol. Perhaps if Garfield somehow becomes a meme...

Honestly, Pratt and animation seem to be a winning combo so if Garfield becomes the next Titanic, would definitely be something. Though it was hard to top a Bill Murray Garfield!

Barbenheimer was perfect storm,. Next year will be more predictable I think.

Joker 2 clearly looks like the next mega viral movie. Gaga MIGHT be the most impactful superhero casting since Nichsolsons Joker.

600M...domestic? none of the above

I suppose since you're asking about the "best chance" I would pick beetlejuice on the offchance that Ortega's star status and nostalgia somehow combine into a phenomenom, but would I personally predict it? hell no

None of them. I'd say the films with 300 potential are as followed:

Madame Web (Maybe we get a Tom Holland cameo, and spider-verse made the character a little more known)
Snow White
Elio (But Fall Guy will hurt it)
Mufasa
Deadpool 3 probably has the best chance to over perform for X-men and Deadpool.

Snow White will tank. Sub $100m.

Snow White will at least do 180m even if it tanks

If anything, I think Jordon Peele's mysterious Christmas film is the one most likely to break out into superstardom. Will probably play as a huge blockbuster and a prestigious awards film and a movie that serves a mostly still ignored audience (how many black films have done well this year?)

Other than that, I'd like to think we finally have a handle on the post covid box office. Joker, Deadpool and Jesus are gonna be the stars of next year (unless their returns are further delayed.)

I dont think Passion 2 gets released next year.

I wouldn't say that audience is ignored. There have been a ton of black-centric films recently. But I would say that people outside of that audience are choosing to ignore those films. Peele's movies have uniformly bombed outside of the US. Little Mermaid tanked internationally compared to other high-profile Disney live action reimaginings. Haunted Mansion is an all-time bomb. The harsh truth is outside of America most people have zero interest in watching black actors unless it's Marvel or an established superstar like Will Smith. We all know why that is... but it's the harsh truth. Same reason Wrinkle in Time was also an all-time bomb and all-time bad OS performance for a fantasy film.

Why not just fill the movies with asian actors. You still get the benefits (ie better reviews, being hip with the youth, justifying recycling an old idea in a “new” way) of being a racial diverse film, plus it doesn’t die overseas.

You make that point often. :-) Fortunately, there’s enough domestic business (their target audience anyway) to keep them getting made through our lifetimes. There’s enough of an audience. Besides, I have no doubt they do well in ancillary revenue streams (judging by my family and friends’ small screen viewing habits, albeit a small sample size).

So Yellowstone's season 5 premier had 12.1 million viewers. Use an $11 ticket by then and that's $133M.

Kevin Costner's two movie Horizon western saga launches pre July 4th weekend. With big heartland appeal I feel these films at least between the two of them could make some big box office. Wouldn't be shocked if they each do $150M+ but if they are exceptionally good and enough general moviegoers also go watch them they could become much bigger.

Western tv and country music are in the zeitgeist so feels like western movies are primed to just burst to big box office for the right movie. Costner in a western has a lot going for it that I'm watching these two movies closely for untapped box office potential.

Opening a western before July 4th is also a very compelling play. Sadly, feels like MI could possibly get overshadowed again if Horizon really becomes big.

I'd be shocked if DR Part 2 can make that June date