Can it stay in the Number 1 spot for all four weekends of the month?

Nov. 12 - I think it is almost certain to maintain the top spot. With an opening of over 80m, I see a good hold and a second week gross of 53m or so. I can't possibly imagine The Polar Express matching that. Even if I'm dead wrong about TPE bombing.

Nov. 19 - This is the real test. It will likely drop to the mid or low 30s. However, it has the ability to hold off the three openers (Bridget Jones, National Treasure, and SpongeBob) as none of them are a sure thing to open over 30m.

Thanksgiving weekend - I actually believe it will be easier for The Incredibles to take the top spot this weekend. Like Monsters Inc, Elf or The Santa Clause 2, it is likely to increase this weekend. After family films have been out a few weeks the effect of a holiday weekend like this is greater. It should at very least stay at the same level as the previous week, and gross over 30m. Meanwhile Nov 19th's openers should all fall below 30m. The only threats for #1 are the two openers, Christmas with the Kranks and Alexander. However, neither looks like a 30m opener to me.

Dec. 3 - Even after November I believe it has a chance at the top spot. In the first week of December it will have a large drop to 15m or less. However, that can still be enough on this weekend.

So does it have a chance at 5 consecutive weeks at #1?


I believe it will top for the first two weeks until National Treasure opens with close to 40m. However, I see it taking the top spot again for Thanksgiving, and the first week of December.

I have to say, I consider it unlikely, but if it could pull it off, it would be an amazing feat.

im with ya man!!, i do believe its posible!

that Nov. 19 openings is sure the big test!

Nope. Spongebob till take it off the top spot.

There is a chance, but it is under 20%...

Spongebob will take over, in my opinion. Without The Polar Express, I would probably agree with you, DP07, though.

So, people seem to disagree with me in that they think Spongbob rather then National Treasure with dethrone it.

Well, do you guys think it will take the top spot back from SpongBob on Thanksgiving weekend? It should increase that weekend while Spongbob should decline.

if thats the case i really dont think so

very slim chance imo

Hmm...that is very possible, unless Alexander pulls a huge upset.

Even if Incredibles manages to be #1 for three weeks, by week 4, it will be competing with Polar Express, Spongebob, and Kranks for the same demographic, which will decrease all of those movies' grosses enough so that Alexander can take the #1 spot.

First 3 weeks yeh, last week no.

It has a better chance than Shark Tale did, because the Incredbles will most likely have quality.

I am going to stand with everyone else and say that until Nov. 24, The Incredibles will rule the b.o.

The first two weeks are definates. After that, it is very difficult to predict with the marketplace becoming so crowded. I'm going to predict it loses top spot November 19th to National Treasure and then falls to third place the following weekend with Alexander being #1.

It won't even open number 1, so no. :wink:

in really hope your joking! :?

look at his profile

You're right nothing will beat the unstopable Alfie. :wink:

Alfie:
Open: 107m
Total: 522m

what about his profile??

is it becouse he gots 5 posts or just cuz he is choubachou and he doesnt know notthing?!??!

sorry i didnt pay attencion to his posts back on BOM!

Check the sig. :wink:

Oh, man. So, paramount tops Shrek 2, and scores the second highest grossing film of all time - only to its own Titanic.

im such a stupid ass!!

thanks!!

I have it at 4 straight weekends at #1, but will lose out the first weekend of December to Christmas with the Kranks (which will have a better post-Thanksgiving drop).

Even if Spongebob wins its opening weekend (I think it will only win opening day and drop off during the weekend), The Incredibles will definitely win Thanksgiving.

I think it's a shoe-in for #1 two weeks in a row, but that third weekend is going to be a killer and Thanksgiving is going to be really hard between The Kranks, Polar Express (which will get a significant bump that weekend as people start getting into the holiday spirits), and other movies that will be opening wider (Finding Neverland, for instance). I do wonder whether Incredibles will be more frontloaded than other Pixar films since it seems to be targetting an older male audience with the subject matter, and considering how busy the weekend are afterwards, but in the past Disney/Pixar has not done the big Dreamworks/Sony huge release for their movies--both Monsters Inc and Finding Nemo opened in less than 3,500 theatres--so they may save up a bit and try to grab more theatres later in the run to try to do that. I also think that Sponge Bob and/or Bridget JOnes have a better chance at dethroning it than National Treasure.

No I don't think so, this doesn't seem to be a typical Pixar blockbuster. Going by the ads, I don't see a lot of kid appeal so far.

Obviously with Pixar's great track record I know I could be wrong and won't be totally surprised if it turns out to be huge. But it just only looks like a moderate hit to me at the moment.

I dont think it will beat TPE on its opening weekend.

Maybe they won't get the smallest kids or even as many women as Finding Nemo, but instead, they'll get all of the guys who wouldn't get caught dead in a movie about fish. I'm still not sure about opening weekend and whether or not it will exceed $70 million (This isn't the summer after all, so Friday and Sunday won't be as big as it might if it were.)....but I do think that if it's a good movie, it will make over $300 million by the time the year ends. (Hey, if Monsters Inc can survive Harry Potter than the Incredibles can handle everything else thrown at it)

One week down, three to go. :wink: