so far we have had 11 40 million weekends. the previous record is 14 which was last year. and I think we will break it.
any way here:
1. The Passion of the Christ
2. Van Helsing
3. Troy
4. Shrek 2
5. Day After Tomorow
6. Harry Potter 3
7. Spider-Man 2
8. I, Robot
9. Bourne Supermacy
10. The Village
11. Sharks Tale
locks
12. Incredibles
13. Oceans Twelve
14. Meet the Fockers

great chances:
Polar Express
Alexander
Lemmony Snichetts

good chances:
Spongebob
Aviator

1. The Passion of the Christ
2. Van Helsing
3. Troy
4. Shrek 2
5. Day After Tomorow
6. Harry Potter 3
7. Spider-Man 2
8. I, Robot
9. Bourne Supermacy
10. The Village
11. Sharks Tale

Ranked based on how likely I believe they are to reach 40m opening weekend:
Incredibles (99.9% chance)
Meet the Fockers (65%)
National Treasure (48%)
Oceans Twelve (45%)
Lemony Snicket (35%)
Spongebob (29%)
Blade: Trinity (22%)
Alexander (12%)
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason (9%)
Christmas with the Kranks (2.5%)
The Polar Express (1.5%)
After the Sunset (0.6%)
Seed of Chucky (0.2%)
Aviator (0.1%)

I'm not sure we will make it. It might to either way. We could easily have only 13.

the day that makes 40 million on its opening weeknd will be the end of the world!
lol

lol

Grudge suprised everyone, and while people don't have expectations for Chucky as they did for The Grudge, I still have to list it.


With a one on 500 chance. :wink:

Since Batman was the first to open with 40m in 1989:

1989 - 1
1990 - 0
1991 - 0
1992 - 1
1993 - 1
1994 - 1
1995 - 1
1996 - 3
1997 - 3
1998 - 2
1999 - 5
2000 - 7
2001 - 13
2002 - 12
2003 - 14
2004 - 11 and counting

1. The Passion of the Christ
2. Van Helsing
3. Troy
4. Shrek 2
5. Day After Tomorow
6. Harry Potter 3
7. Spider-Man 2
8. I, Robot
9. Bourne Supermacy
10. The Village
11. Sharks Tale

Locks
12. The Incredibles
13. Ocean's Twelve

Great Chance
14. Meet The Fockers
15. Spongebob Squarepants: The Movie
16. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

So-So Chance
17. Alexander
18. The Polar Express

Slim Chance
19. The Aviator

1. The Passion of the Christ
2. Van Helsing
3. Troy
4. Shrek 2
5. Day After Tomorow
6. Harry Potter 3
7. Spider-Man 2
8. I, Robot
9. Bourne Supermacy
10. The Village
11. Sharks Tale

Ranked based on how likely I believe they are to reach 40m opening weekend:
Incredibles (99.9% chance)
Meet the Fockers (65%)
National Treasure (48%)
Oceans Twelve (45%)
Lemony Snicket (35%)
Spongebob (29%)
Blade: Trinity (22%)
Alexander (12%)
Christmas with the Kranks (2.5%)
The Polar Express (1.5%)
After the Sunset (0.6%)
Seed of Chucky (0.2%)
Aviator (0.1%)
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason (0.05%) (down due to it being released initially in only 500 theaters)

Well Incredibles was number 12, and Polar may be 13.

If something doesn't make it next week I think the chance of breaking last year's record will become slim.

1. The Passion of the Christ
2. Van Helsing
3. Troy
4. Shrek 2
5. Day After Tomorow
6. Harry Potter 3
7. Spider-Man 2
8. I, Robot
9. Bourne Supermacy
10. The Village
11. Sharks Tale
12. The Incredibles

Ranked based on how likely I believe they are to reach 40m opening weekend:
Meet the Fockers (65%)
Oceans Twelve (43% - Down slightly)
National Treasure (41% - Down)
Lemony Snicket (35%)
Spongebob (34% - Up)
Blade: Trinity (19% - Down)
Alexander (12%)
Christmas with the Kranks (1.5% - Down)
Aviator (0.1%)

Eliminated:
The Polar Express
After the Sunset - Not that it really had more then a remote chance anyway.
Seed of Chucky - Goodbye
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason - Totally eliminated. Although it did well this week, it would have needed alot more to have had a chance for 40m next week.

Nothing was lost that I gave more then a 1.5% chance to.

Locks

Meet the Fockers
Oceans Twelve
Lemony Snicket

Good chance (ie. 50%+)

National Treasure
Blade: Trinity
Alexander

UPDATE

You can add Meet the Fockers to that list now

However we won't break the record. Last technical weekend of the year. Even if New Year's is counted, there won't be a $40 million film.