I msut certianly agree. I think it will settle over the 150m mark, which is very respectable indeed. Then again, if it has a big increse tommorow.....

I hope so. Im a Julia/Law fan. For some reason, I thought of Love, Actually for some reason, probably the cast and the release patterns. Anyway, I will only be content if it makes 100m I hope it pulls a 'Somethings Gotta Give' instead.

Hehe, considering the cold, blunt and graphic content of this movie, it is highly doubtful that it pulls a Something's Gotta Give or anything similar. They should be happy if it makes $70 million. Personally, I'm fine with anything above $60 million. This year has not been kind to Jude Law so far and I think he is a good actor and deserves better than that.

I don't think they will have too much of an impact. After all, Pirates of the Caribbean still held up very well against Bad Boys 2, the trio the following week, and against American Wedding, and FVSJ. This is the POTC of this year with the combination of a good opening and great legs brought about by excellent WOM. Both are very entertaining Bruckheimer adventure flicks.

I expect it to top 17m this weekend. After all it had an internal multiplier of about 3.2 even on the first weekend. I see at least 11m next weekend. Then it will make a killing off of the holidays. Think of it this way, last year The Last Samurai had a multiplier of about 4.5. With 17m this weekend, the same multiplier from this point on would bring it to 169.5m. Now, do you really think it will drop like TLS over the next two weeks. So far NT's legs have been far stronger then that. Without thanksgiving it would probably have two drops of around 30%. Say what you want about competition, but NT does not have ROTK to deal with. With better legs, I expect NT to have a multiplier of over 5.5 from this point on. It should have about 8m on the weekend of Lemon Snicket when the high weekday numbers start. The next week it should get about 6m before increasing to 8m again the week after that. With the weekdays that would add up to 36m over the holiday period, and it will get over 20m more after that. That should be 60m from Dec. 17th on.

BJs Wknd prediction 8)

Note before I start: I do not beleive that ANY of the friday increases muffled the overall wknd mutiplyers for any of the holdovers 8)

1.National Treasure:

Friday: 5.10m +276%

Saturday: 8.16m +60%

Sunday: 5.30m -35%

Wknd: 18.56m -43.5% From Last Wknd

2. Christmas with the Kranks:

Friday: 3.20m +340%

Saturday: 6.44m +70%

Sunday: 3.86m -40%

Wknd: 13.50m -37.5% From Last Wknd

3. The Polar Express:

Friday: 2.80m +160%

Saturday: 5.94m +120%

Sunday: 4.16m -30%

Wknd: 12.90m -33% From Last Wknd

4. The Incredibles:

Friday: 2.35m +294%

Saturday: 4.58m +95%

Sunday: 2.98m -35%

Wknd: 9.91m -58% From Last Wknd

5. The Spongebob Squarepants Movie:

Friday: 2.20m +461%

Saturday: 4.40m +100%

Sunday: 2.64m -40%

Wknd: 9.24m -49.5% From Last Wknd

6. Closer:

Friday: 2.70m

Saturday: 3.65m +35%

Sunday: 2.20m -40%

Wknd: 8.55m New

7. Alexander:

Friday: 1.45m +119%

Saturday: 2.10m +45%

Sunday: 1.26m -40%

Wknd: 4.81m -64.5% From Last Wknd

8. Finding Neverland:

Friday: .90m +221%

Saturday: 1.26m +40%

Sunday: .882m -30%

Wknd: 3.04m -33% From Last Wknd

9. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason:

Friday: .95m +156%

Saturday: 1.24m +35%

Sunday: .80m -35%

Wknd: 3.00m -52% From Last Wknd

10. After The Sunset:

Friday: .55m +200%

Saturday: .87m +60%

Sunday: .52m -40%

Wknd: 1.94m -50.5% From Last Wknd

8)

That's pretty good for Spongebob. It looks like it will avoid a 60% drop. 100 million is still very far away, though...

The Last Samurai enjoyed oscar buzz AND in the end it was a Tom Cruise starrer and we all know that those have good legs. Even the not so well-received Vanilla Sky managed a good multiplier. The thing is that National Treasure is a fun flick and so are Ocean's Twelve and Blade: Trinity. Both of them are highly anticipated and will make a killing in their opening weekends. While Blade: Trinity will disappear fast, Ocean's Twelve will remain NT's competitor in the long run. I actually think that Blade: Trinity + Ocean's Twelve present more of a threat to National Treasure than ROTK presented to The Last Samurai. I expect it to make around $10 million next weekend and then continue its run with drops around 35-40%. You know, this year has a disadvantage for movies. The strongest days of December, the 25th and the 36th are on a weekend, on a Saturday and a Sunday. Usually, they are weekdays, so the movies make a good sum on the weekends and on the weekdays during December. This time it'll be somewhat different. Even January 1st is on a Saturday. This fact will be somewhat of a damper for most movies. I looked back at December 1999 and back then all movies in the TOP 10 dropped on the Dec. 24-26 weekend despite the holidays being on that weekend. This is why I project this December to give movies slightly worse weekdays because the biggest days are on the weekends.

Lecter I suggest you check out the dailys from 1999 8) the films will not be harmed by the two most important days being on the wknd infact the will be helped greatly I mean insanely toy story 2, stuart little, the green mile, and many others got massive boosts because after the insane increase they recived on saturday or sunday the films would all drop less than 20% from sunday to the next friday 8) and wiht NT already having such great legs it will be helped greatly I think 200m should be a lock even with cometition 8)

Note: Christmas day and New years day were on the exact same day of the week in 1999 8)

But the thing is though that movies usually get great grosses on weekends AND additionally great grosses during the weekdays when Dec 25th and 26th are both on weekdays. I mean, it's like..if you had the Veteran's Day on a Saturday the moves would not benefit as much as they would if Veteran's Day was on a weekday.

lecter have you checked the dailys :?: stuart little was over 6m toy story 2 was over 5m and i think the grean mike was over 4m. Also this year the films are going to benifit from three wknds being in the time when kids are out of school 8) maybe 4 ill have to check it again 8)

Also I dont think that christmas day being on a tuesday or wednesday is affective as having it on a monday, thursday, friday, saturday, or sunday 8)

I did check them sure. But there is still a beneft in having Christmas Day on a weekday. It's like if a holiday is on a weekday, people have off their work, but if it's on a Sunday/Saturday, it doesn't matter that much because the people are off work anyway.

Regardless, National Treasure has already shown it has better legs then TLS. BTW, the reason Vanilla Sky had a good multiplier was only because of its release date in December. Had it been released in a slow month it would have had a multiplier under 3.



True, but POTC (among others) have shown that they can hold up well against competition. What's far more important is competition for screens and theaters. NT should do well over the course of the month in that regard; I don't expect it to drop below 2,500 theaters until January. There are other films that the openers will take their screens from rather then NT, which will maintain a strong PTA.



I think that Ocean's Twelve will also prove to be frontloaded even if not as frontloaded as Blade: Trinity. Nearly every non-family sequel drops over 50% in the second weekend without a holiday. O12 won't be an exception especially with word that WOM is likely to be weak. In any case, I expect O12 to under-perform. The marketing campaign has been incredibly weak.

Also, why would it provide more competition then ROTK? You also must remember that ROTK was hardly the only release last December.



Its legs so far have been better then that.



The 25th and 26th are the best days, but they are not much different then the other days. The Veteran's Day example is completely different, because there is a huge difference between the normal days at that time of the year and Veterans Day numbers. ROTK might have had 13.9m on the 25th, but it also had 13.6m and 10.1m on the Mondays before and after, which were the 21st and the 28th. Furthermore, the 24th is the weakest day of the holiday period, and it will this year be during the weekend. So, that will help the weekdays. The difference is at best minimal for any film over the holiday period. Let's say it would have cost ROTK 4m if it had been released this year (which is being very generous). That's a drop in the bucket among the 290m it earned during that weekend. So, for NT, how much will it lose of the 30m-40m I expect it to earn? I think $500,000 is the most you could argue for.



That's because the 24th lowers the weekend gross. However, movies still have a weekend where they will increase: Dec. 31-Jan. 2.



As BJ said, look at those weekday numbers.

Sure, the weekday numbers are good, but it loses the three most important days January 1st, December 25th and 26th. Movies will increase during the weekend, you've mentioned, but movies always increae on December's last weekend, no matter what days it falls on. This year they will increase as always, but January 1st will be lost because it is a Saturday on that weekend.

Furthermore, I don't believe in Ocean's Twelve underperforming. I think the all-star cast will be able to make it a hit, just like it did to the first movie. Personally, I don't think that the first movie had any big attraction factors other than its cast and that worked. The same should go for O12.

Moreover, Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events WILL steal some PG-floks from National Treasure.