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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 21525
Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 June 7-9 Predictions Bad Boys Ride or Die 60m
The Watchers 15m
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| Fri May 31, 2024 7:48 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68292
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Re: June 7-9 Predictions Bad Boys $108m  _________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE
FREE TIBET
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BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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| Fri May 31, 2024 12:11 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12193
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Re: June 7-9 Predictions Seeing mega breakout for Bad Boys 2. $62M in 2020 with inflation and this feels like it's got a prime release date with little competiton. Going to go with $75M for now.
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| Fri May 31, 2024 12:57 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6750
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Re: June 7-9 Predictions I am expecting lower opening than BB3. Probably in low 50s.
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| Fri May 31, 2024 1:21 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 19398
Location: San Diego
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Re: June 7-9 Predictions Forgot the last one opened to 60m+. Wow.
I think anything above 45m would seem solid tbh.
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| Fri May 31, 2024 1:23 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40448
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Re: June 7-9 Predictions Solid 50-60. Not enough young people interest to be a mega breakout.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Fri May 31, 2024 1:55 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12193
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Re: June 7-9 Predictions I don't think this needs that much young interest to be successful. It's a 29 year old franchise with huge fanbase with 70% of its BB3 OW non-Caucasian.
Also remember that tracking was WAY off on the last film:
83% more than the $40M+ projection that tracking was seeing 1 week earlier for BB3
-46% above the $50M forecast that tracking had for the threequel on Thursday.
Demos for BB3:
-South and the South Central (#1 theater in Atlanta).
-56% male, 58% under 35, largest demo 25-34 at 33%.
-42% African American, 30% Caucasian, 18% Hispanic, and 10% Asian/Other.
This is essentially close to the Fast franchise crowd. Have gotten a fair bit older but 70%+ this weekend could be non-Caucasian.
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| Fri May 31, 2024 2:15 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6750
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Re: June 7-9 Predictions So far Presales have lagged the last movie. That came after 2 decades from 1st 2 and so there was nostalgia at play. This is coming after 4 years. Last movie released just before pandemic. Will Smith's equity is unfortunately down from that time as well.
I am expecting a good finish and walkups. Still its going to open lower.
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The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Fri May 31, 2024 2:28 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12193
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Re: June 7-9 Predictions I don't think his core demographics care about the Oscar slap anymore TBH. I also think him being so low profile since that time will help from a curiosity factor rather than being as much of a turnoff if it came out in 2022.
Also had some movie breakouts in the previous month and a half from a healthier Christmas slate 1917, Jumanji 2, and SW9 (2 $400M+ movies).
We'll be lucky to get ONE $100M+ film in the two months before BB4's release. Think it's going to break out from a tried and true buddy cop formula.
I will give it to BB3 though that it benefitted from MLK weekend (inflated weekend on Sunday especially) but still feel BB4 has some room to surprise on the upside.
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| Fri May 31, 2024 2:50 pm |
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KC
Team Kris
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2004 4:57 pm
Posts: 1024
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Re: June 7-9 Predictions After the slap heard round the world this will be Will Smith's first true test to see if people still want to see him. I think he is still toxic and this will disappoint or flat out bomb.
25 m
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| Fri May 31, 2024 5:50 pm |
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flip1
Angels & Demons
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:02 pm
Posts: 249
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Re: June 7-9 Predictions Bad Boys: 54m
Watchers: 13m
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| Mon Jun 03, 2024 2:11 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23320
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: June 7-9 Predictions This is a bit hard to gauge but probably $60m give or take a few million.
For BO's sake, hope it goes higher.
Watchers should be the biggest horror opener of the year so far - $15m.
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| Mon Jun 03, 2024 7:52 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3217
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Re: June 7-9 Predictions publicenemy#1 wrote: Forgot the last one opened to 60m+. Wow.
I think anything above 45m would seem solid tbh. That was right before the pandemic too. Great timing.
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| Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:04 pm |
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