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 What's the most unpredictable movie of 2005? 
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Award Winning Bastard

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Just for the record, much like POTC, F4 is part comedy. It's intentional. Just like Spider-Man has comedic stuff going on. It's based off a "comic" book, after all. :wink:


Wed Apr 06, 2005 9:35 pm
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BOYFRESH wrote:
Zingaling wrote:
Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy will not pass $100 million.


I agree, but I think 75M+ is possible if it has a 30M+ opening weekend. After seeing the latest trailer it kinda reminds me of "The Fifth Element".


We'll just see about that.....


Wed Apr 06, 2005 10:31 pm
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dolcevita wrote:
BOYFRESH wrote:
Zingaling wrote:
Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy will not pass $100 million.


I agree, but I think 75M+ is possible if it has a 30M+ opening weekend. After seeing the latest trailer it kinda reminds me of "The Fifth Element".


We'll just see about that.....


yes we will :smile:

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Thu Apr 07, 2005 12:18 am
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BJ wrote:

yes we will :smile:


=D> And that's why I pegged it one of the most unpredictable movies of the year! This is going to get an early pounce on the summer flicks, mark my words it'll do pretty damn gooooood.


Thu Apr 07, 2005 12:23 am
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dolcevita wrote:
BJ wrote:

yes we will :smile:


=D> And that's why I pegged it one of the most unpredictable movies of the year! This is going to get an early pounce on the summer flicks, mark my words it'll do pretty damn gooooood.


my current prediction is between 220m-250m :cool:

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Thu Apr 07, 2005 12:37 am
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dolcevita wrote:
BJ wrote:

yes we will :smile:


=D> And that's why I pegged it one of the most unpredictable movies of the year! This is going to get an early pounce on the summer flicks, mark my words it'll do pretty damn gooooood.


Maybe it's because I'm not to familiar with the Novels, but the TV Spot I saw tonight did nothing for me and yeah, it did sort of give off a 5th Element feel to it.. :-k

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Thu Apr 07, 2005 2:23 am
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Gimli the Elf wrote:
MovieDude wrote:
Gimli the Elf wrote:
As far as Sith and Batman go, they're kid friendly. I don't buy into this whole 'dark' shit. We grew up watching arnold, sly, van damme kicking people's asses 24/7 and parents today with their whole "ooooh, dr Octopus was scary for my kids and all .." I don't buy into that. Kids today are still watching whatever they want to.


There's pretty solid facts on this "dark shit". Let me ring up a quick comparison between expected huge blockbusters that were dark and lacking in humor versus ones that had some comedic elements to remove the tension and were bigger crowdpleasers. Here's the movies that have grossed over 200 million this decade. The ones that lacked much comedy and in blue, and ones that I think are debatable either way are green. Otherwise, I left the rest normal:

Shrek 441 million
Spider-Man 403 million
Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 377 million
Spider-Man 2 373 million
The Passion of the Christ 370 million
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 339 million
Finding Nemo 339 million
Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone 317 million
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 313 million
Pirates of the Carribean 305 million
Star Wars: Episode II 302 million
The Matrix Reloaded 281 million
Meet the Fockers 278 million
Shrek 267 million
The Incredibles 261 million
How the Grinch Stole Christmas 261 million
Monster's Inc 255 million
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets 249 million
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 249 million
Bruce Almighty 242 million
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 241 million
Cast Away 233 million
Signs 227 million
Rush Hour 2 226 million
Million Impossible 2 215 million
X-Men 2 214 million
Austin Powers in Goldmember 213 million
The Mummy Returns 202 million

See, right off the bat look at the decline in the Harry Potter movies. Unlike the Lord of the Rings movies, despite getting good/great WOM they've steadily declined in box office take. What other pattern do they share? They've been progressively darker and less kid friendly. I saw several parents have to leave Chamber of Secrets, and over 10 with The Prizoner of Azkaban. Or how about the Matrix movies? Reloaded could be considered darker, but it made almost half it's total in the first four days since the first one had some comic relief every now and then to relieve the tension. The result was Matrix Revolutions could barely even pass those first four days of Reloaded - total. Hulk, Troy, AVP and The Village all had big openings but relatively shitty legs due to having bad WOM due to being downers or so lacking in anything funny in them that they became unintentionally funny for audiences. Star Wars Episode II opened higher then Episode 1 but made over 120 million less (150 million with inflation) since it had much less appeal to kids due to being darker. The last movie to be #1 for the year and not have side comic relief was Saving Private Ryan in 1998. And this is just 200 million. Of the movies in this decade that have made 150-200 million, all but 4 of over 30 movies (and five debatable ones) weren't dark and tragic, and many of those were surprise hits like National Treasure, Elf, Hitch, Ice Age, Catch Me If You Can, What Women Want, Scary Movie and Meet the Parents. However, a number of those were also darker movies like Pearl Harbor, Planet of the Apes and The Perfect Storm which people were predicting 200+ million for ahead of time. Some of the expected huge blockbusters couldn't even clear that margin, such as The Matrix Revolutions, The Patriot, Minority Report, Hulk The Last Samurai and Troy. And with about two rare occasions... er, anomalies ;), they always have terrible multipliers too. Like it or not, all the arguing in the world can't deny the simple plain truth: Dark don't sell.


moviedude. The darkness of any of those movies had absolutely nothing at all to do with the steady decline of any of those franchises. There were perfectly good reasons. Almost all the examples you have cited are not valid as the primary market was not people under the age of 15.

There is a difference between funny and dark and are not mutually exclusive. I laughed at quite a few intentional parts of harry potter as well. Your decline list makes little sense to me in relation to the darkness each of them see to have/not have.


Not so much simply funny and dark, because you could throw Lord of the Rings in there. I moreso mean movies that are more lighthearted with suspense occasionally interrupted through comedy however mild. The comedy part is there, but not nessecary. Point is, that graph still very clearly shows how hard it is for movies, particularly ones aimed at younger audiences, to make a lot of money after weekend one. Lemoney Snicket is a perfect example. It had a huge marketing blitz of over 50 million and tie ins galore, and even pretty damn good reviews, but it dropped off 50+% weekend two and only had even decent legs thanks to Christmas Break. Hulk is another example, as is Daredevil. While I do think that Star Wars will make double or more then these three films (Batman will make more then these three, but unless the new trailer suggests otherwise probably by less then 60 million. I have yet to see why it'd manage 200+ million). If anything, movies that have there primary audience be under 15 are the ones that get shitfaced the most by darker films.


Thu Apr 07, 2005 3:01 am
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indeed .. but then you have to take the kiddie factor out from the beginning. A lot of people have been screaming about how it effects kids. From your chart, it seems to effect just about everyone .... and its less about being dark and more about having a serious tone more than anything else.


Thu Apr 07, 2005 7:11 am
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Check out this new Hitchhiker TV spot here, it has hit written all over it.


Fri Apr 08, 2005 7:38 am
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Gimli the Elf wrote:
indeed .. but then you have to take the kiddie factor out from the beginning. A lot of people have been screaming about how it effects kids. From your chart, it seems to effect just about everyone .... and its less about being dark and more about having a serious tone more than anything else.


I think that being dark and having loved characters die definitely does have a strong impact. I bet that if Achilles had caught Bloom's arrow in Troy and thrown it back at him in the eye it would've done 20 million more leg wise. :lol: Gladiator had a serious tone but had great legs thanks to the fact that in the end Maximus gets his revenge and his family. The Passion of the Christ ended on an uplifting note even though it was very serious as well. But either way, I think that Batman and Episode III both are dark and have serious tones, whereas Four has neither. That's not to say it'll make more then either (Episode III might double it's gross) but I do think that it gives Four more breakout potential and those more of a chance to dissapoint, especially considering the levels of hype for them.


Fri Apr 08, 2005 4:58 pm
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75 for hitchhiker is about my guess which is quite good since i expect only 20-29% of its final gross to come from the USA


Fri Apr 08, 2005 5:39 pm
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