Finding Neverland didn't report Monday's number, but it should be small (<$100,000), and we'll just push that into the post-nomination column.

Tuesday is the first post-nomination day, so right now 100% of the gross for each movie comes from pre-nomination stage.

Here are the distributions for last year:



None of the films were that backloaded because Seabiscuit was released during late summer, while ROTK and Master and Commander already got the lion share of their gross by the nomination time given their wide release pattern. It should be quite different this year. All the movies except for Ray will get some good percentage of total gross after nomination, starting with Million Dollar Baby, then Sideways and The Aviator.

thanks man!

Will keep looking into this thread. If they give Ray a re-release then it may scrape by $100m. Aviator looks like a shoo in for $100m and Sideways should atleast double its current gross, if not triple with major wins. Million Dollar Baby has most potential though.

BTW - who is that babe in your avatar??

Ray will be on DVD Feb. 1st, so it won't go much further. I certainly expect The Aviator to reach 100m, M$B has an outside shot as well. I believe Sideways will top out with 70m. Meanwhile, I think Finding Neverland can reach similar numbers if Miramax actually decides to give it a decent marketing campaign.

Come on Ray, you can do it!!!!!!!!!

Zhang Ziyi (or Ziyi Zhang). :wink:

Looking at the dailies, it seems like The Aviator REALLY benefits from all the noms it got, moreso than Gangs of New York did back in 2003. Funnily enough, Finding Neverland will be the lowest-grossing Best Picture nominee this year. I don't think anyone would have though that a couple of months ago.

Great thread, Michael!

As expected, all best picture nominees added theaters this weekend and saw healthy boost to their box office run.

Million Dollar Baby has the biggest expansion and the biggest jump in its box office, grossing an estimated $11.8M for the weekend. The PTA isn't as impressive as I expected, but it is still very good, and the total gross north of $70M should be expected.

The Aviator has the smallest uptick in term of percentage change in its theater count, but still experienced a very healthy boost of 55.2%, giving it the biggest weekend since new year and the biggest PTA in three weeks. It should have no problem crossing $100M by the end of February.

Sideways also held up its PTA very well, considering its theater count more than doubled, and had its best weekend by far in its 15-week run. It should get to $70M as well.

Similar to The Aviator, Finding Neverland expanded and saw its PTA actually increased to the best level in 2005. Its current target will be $50M.

Being the one that in the smallest number of theaters out of the group, Ray has already captured most of its box office potential, but the added oscar visibility still helps it to double its weekend gross. It has a slim chance challenging $80M, if it can maintain the pace until Foxx wins best actor, at which time it should see one final boost.

One week after the announcement, we have:



By the weekend, The Aviator will pass Ray as the highest grossing best picture nominee.

If only the percentage made after the nominations represented their likelihood to win...Million Dollar Baby, Sideways, The Aviator, Finding Neverland, and then Ray.

I'd be in heaven.

Why is Universal releasing Ray on DVD so early? They should be re-releasing it wide now capitalizing off the six nominations it got and push the DVD release date to maybe April or May.

From what I have seen ... they will likly sell over a million coppies of Ray first day of DVD release ...

They will make HUGE money off of it on DVD sales ... which is far more profiatble than a 45-55 box office take.

Judging from this list, which ever film wins Best Picture this year will be one of the lowest grossing winners in recent history.

2003 Return of the King $377,027,325
2002 Chicago $170,687,518
2001 A Beautiful Mind $170,742,341
2000 Gladiator $187,705,427
1999 American Beauty $130,096,601
1998 Shakespeare in Love $100,317,794
1997 Titanic $600,788,188
1996 The English Patient $78,676,425
1995 Braveheart $75,609,945
1994 Forrest Gump $329,694,499
1993 Schindler's List $96,065,768
1992 Unforgiven $101,157,447
1991 Silence of the Lambs $130,742,922
1990 Dances With Wolves $184,208,848
1989 Driving Miss Daisy $106,593,296
1988 Rain Man $172,825,435
1987 The Last Emperor $43,984,230
1986 Platoon $138,530,565
1985 Out of Africa $87,071,205
1984 Amadeus $51,564,280
1983 Terms of Endearment $108,423,489
1982 Gandhi $52,767,889
1981 Chariots of Fire $58,972,904
1980 Ordinary People $54,766,923
1979 Kramer Vs. Kramer $106,260,000
1978 The Deer Hunter $48,979,328

Two weeks into the post-nomination period:

It looks like Finding Neverland will be end up grossing very close to what Peter Pan and Return to Neverland. Why do these movies always gross around $48 million?

The Peter Pan curse?

By February 22nd:

ok i didnt see this thread. sorry. here is what i think:
Aviator: 115/136
Million Dollar Baby: 90/105
Sideways 74.0
Finding Neverland 57.0

Now that Million Dollar Baby Has won the big prize, and 3 other big prizes, it will be interesting to see how much the BO benefits. I'm hoping it can pull out 100 million now.

Million Dollar Baby is a lock for 100M now. The Aviator should also get some good bump even though it failed to win the big ones. 5 out of 11 isn't bad either.

I might see M$B again, so might many others I guess.

I feel like I didn't see what the AMPAS in mass saw. A second viewing is in order.

I'm buying the dvd for my collection so I guess it depends on how long it takes to be released.

I'm considering seeing it a second time. I might do that next week or the week after.

By the way, great signature loyal.

Thanks. :razz:

I think it's only fair to watch it again. Sometimes it actually helps. I hated Gladiator the first time I watched it, now it's deliciously grand.

Sometimes though, like Ordinary People, Shakespeare In Love, English Patient, Dances With Wolves, etc, second viewings don't make a difference at all.

It can actually get worse.

MILLION DOLLAR BABY and THE AVIATOR should both get $100+ million now.