even though it dropped to 6th, that's a pretty decent hold for white noise. it might still be able to leapfrog elektra when actuals come out. Speaking of elektra......

Reactions:

1. Coach Carter -- as much as most of us underpredicted this film, it really should be expected for it to do well. Not only does it have the MTV brand behind it, but sports films often do well opening weekend. It also has Samuel L. Jackson and the tagline "based on a true story..." With $23.6 million opening weekend, it has recovered over a third of its production budget in its opening weekend. The studio claims it has over "90%" positive word-of-mouth, and that should be reflected in its strong legs. Should finish with more then $75 million, and could top $100 million before its run is over.

2. Meet the Fockers -- the Holiday main-stay has once again taken a high position on the weekly chart, this time dropping just one place with $19 million. With over $230 million already, it seems likely at this point that the film should cross $300 million at the domestic box office, and lead the way for "Meet the Parents 3". Strong word-of-mouth should continue to sustain the film in the coming weeks, in short, its not going anywhere anytime soon.

3. Racing Stripes -- a mild, yet strong debut for a film which had one of the weaker advertising campaigns of the week. $14 million is a good start for a family film, and should increase to $17 million during the 4-Day frame. After 2002's Kangaroo Jack, it should be expected that this film will have strong legs and should finish with over $50 million. The big question now is, will there be a Racing Stripes 2?

--more to come--

Good work Rogue, my predicting partner :wink: Nice anaylsis on "Meet" :wink:

Nice work, Roguecommander

Reactions: Continued

4. In Good Company -- A massive expansion helped the film increase by over 9,000% to $13.8 million, and yet it still maintained a strong per theater average, in fact the second highest in the top ten. With over $14 million already, and exceptional word of mouth, this film will be around for quite a while, and should likely cross $70 million domestically. Next week should add at least 400-500 additional theaters and should see a miniscule decrease or possibly a small increase.

5. Elektra -- the subject of much debate and a good deal of overpredicting. Jennifer Garner couldn't save it and in the end it would have a very soft debut of $12.5 million. However, the budget is estimated in the mid $30 million dollar range, and even with an underperformance domestically, international ticket sales and DVD revenues will easily allow this film to bring a profit for the studio. Next week should bring a 50% drop for the film however, as would be the case with many super-hero genre films and combined with the mediocre word of mouth it could drop by as much as 60%. However, given its PG-13 rating it shouldn't suffer a fate quite so bad. Domestically the film should finish with less then $35 million, less then last years big-budget female heroine underperformer, Catwoman.

6. White Noise -- Poor reviews don't always mean bad word of mouth, as has been demonstrated by the first horror film of the year, White Noise. With a 49.5% drop from last week, it defies the trend of most horror films, and continues to show above average legs for its genre. Given that typical horror films are low on the budget spectrum, this film is only a week or two or way from covering its production budget, and international ticket sales should easily cover the studio's other expenses. With over $40 million already grossed, the film should easily finish with more then $60 million.

7. The Aviator -- High expectations, Oscar buzz and above average reviews could ultimately not save The Aviator. While its $4.7 million 5th weekend is certainly not bad, when compared to its budget of over $110 million, it is not near as good as it could have been. With Academy Award nominations in the coming weeks, and certain buzz surrounding it, The Aviator should still have some life left in it, but $100 million is all but out of reach at this point. When considered apart from its production costs, the $80 million is should finish with is still excellent, just not up to expectations.

8. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events -- Another dissapointment from the 2004 Holiday season, Lemony Snicket has thus far drastically underperformed most expectations, which ranged from $150 million to $250 million. With $111 million in grosses already, it should still show a small profit for the studio once international ticket sales and DVD revenues are included, but the prospect of further books in the series being developed into films is less likely at this point. A total of $125 million is reasonable, but certainly not what many had expected.

9. Andrew Lloyd Weber's The Phantom of the Opera -- A love/hate film that has been receiving a decent amount of love from moviegoers over the past few weeks. After three weeks of semi-limited release, the Phantom expanded into an additional 285 theaters this week, and saw a slight increase at the box office to $3.5 million. With a current total of $26.4 million, it will likely finish with more then $40 million, although a profit for the studio is still a long way away.

10. Ocean's Twelve -- A final dissapointment from 2004, Ocean's Twelve will likely not finish above $135 million, a drop of over 25% from the 2001 original. Strong international ticket sales will allow this film to make a profit.

A Few Other Reactions:

Sideways continues to astound, gaining a mere 5 theaters, but increasing over 15% for the weekend. Should finish with more then $75 million, if the studio eventually expands nationwide.

Million Dollar Baby suffered a slight drop at the box office, but with a per theater average of over $14,000, the film is still performing very strongly.

Hotel Rwanda nearly doubled its theater count, and also increased its box office for the fourth straight weekend, once again finishing about $1 million for the weekend. With $3 million thus far it will likely be around for quite a while.

Very good analysis, Rogue. Thanks, I know that took a lot of your time.

Yep. Now it remains to be seen how much I am correct on...

Ahhh see??? WHITE NOISE did exactly what I thought it would which after tomorrow should gross about 16 Million for it's 4 day weekend which I think is excellent for a movie dumped on as badly as it was.. Perhaps the critics got it wrong on this movie or the Internet World did?? Someone got it wrong since this movie is still doing pretty well.. Call it good marketing on the part of Universal and Michael Keaton just flat out being AWESOME..... =D>

Spin zone. Stop saying that Carter was so mediocre - word of mouth, reviews and box office clearly demonstrated that it's not, no matter how many times you say so. :razz:

And why do you guys keep thinking that Elektra cost so little? It was for a while widely reported that the budget was over 60 million, until Fox realized it wouldn't do near that much (It might not make half that).

Ahhh, God Bless the world of DVD where this movie will probably do better.. :wink:

Why would Fox widely report a budget in the first place? It makes NO sense for a studio to go about bragging a budget if it had moved it to January because they knew it wouldnt perform.

Furthermore, Rob Bowman himself said the film cost in the "mid 30s" and hes under no contract to say that. THAT figure is the most widely reported one now.
Its interesting to note that surprisingly "Elektras" audience turned to "Carter" instead.. only 47% of the audience for "Elektra" was under 25, and just over half were male.... That IS suprising to me.

Im not denying that coach carters mediocre, how can i judge that if i havent seen the movie? [:P me thinks you made a booboo] the marketing campaign is just so generic... Furthermore i dont listen to box office figures to tell me how good a movie is, i decide that for myself. Coach Carter could sweep the oscars and id still think its marketing was incredibly bland. Which is why im amazed at its figures, i thought it would have an audience, but its on track to outgross my 4-days by $5m And furthermore, ive seen many "mediocre" and worse films open atop the box office...

Yeah, fixed that mistake :-# But c'mon, the campaign wasn't generic, it just didn't appeal to a lot of people that don't live in heavily urban areas, and that's fine, it still made all but 6 million of it's budget in the three day weekend, and could have all but 2 in four days.

What you mean WHITE NOISE will cover it's budget within another week.

The budget was under $25M.

Actually, WHITE NOISE has been performing much better than people thought it would for a January release.. I think after tomorrow, or today I suppose, it will have made over 50 Million which is great for a only cost 25 Million to make including Keaton's Salary.. I've seen it 4 times now and will definitely get the DVD when it arrives.... =D>

There is no estimate for the budget. Using other recent horror films, it should fall in the $20-$25 million range. The film has currently grossed $49 million, and the studio's share is therefore around $23 million. Therefore even if the film cost $30 million it should be covered within the next week.

You have to put The Aviator in perspective...

If you compare The Aviator to other Scorsese efforts, and a lot of big budget Academy Award aiming epics (Master & Commander, Cold Mountain, etc.), The Aviator isn't looking too bad. It's not one of those films that is going to get its audience directly, but only by word of mouth and award appearances.

The Aviator has a great chance of pulling in $100 million after it wins Best Picture, whichs is pretty much a done deal at this point, unlike Gangs of New York. It will likely end up Scorsese's highest grossing film (he's never had a picture go $100 million +).

Overall, it would be considered a pretty good run for a film of its nature. And who cares if they lose money theatrically when the picture is a Best Picture winner. It will be making profit for years and years beyond all of the movies in the top 10 now (except Fockers probably).

That is true. However, expectations were as high as $200 million, which it will certainly not reach. I don't think it will make more than an additional $40 million after the Academy Award nominations. I don't think it will win Best Picture, but if it does it should cross $100 million.

I expect the aviator to get some great pushes over the next few wks, I think that 150m is still in a posability but 200m seems unliekly unless they can pull a Titanic from here on :wink:

Only 47% of Elektra's audience was under 25? That's very suprising.