Ocean's Twelve is a definente lock. Even if it sucks ass, it's still going to pull atleast The Village numbers. The Village sucked, and the majority of people hated it. But, since the other movies were so popular, everyone went the first weekend. Same thing will happen for Ocean's Twelve, and the quality of the movie will determine it's legs, like The Bourne Supremacy.

I knew that The Grudge was going to get $100 million, but it's drop this weekend is going to be great. The Incredibles.. well duh! The Polar Express is soon to be determined, but I think it will just inch past $100 million with about $105-110.

Incredibles is the 16th of the year to cross the mark.

1. Passion
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
16. The Incredibles

Locks:
The Grudge (UP)
Meet the Fockers
Best Picture Winner

90%+ Chance:
Oceans Twelve
Lemony Snicket

75%-89.9% Chance:
National Treasure
2nd strongest best picture nominee

50%-74.9%:
Spongebob Squarepants
Aviator
3rd strongest best picture nominee

25%-49.9%:
Ray (Down) - Really not having the legs I was expecting.
The Polar Express (Up)
Alexander
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
Christmas with the Kranks
Blade: Trinity
Spanglish

10%-24.9%:
Finding Neverland

1%-9.9%:
Princess Diaries 2 (When is the DVD date? Is there any chance of a re-release?)
The Flight of the Pheonix
Closer
An Unfinished Life
Phantom of the Opera
Fat Albert
In Good Company

Eliminated:
After the Sunset
The Seed of Chucky ( was probably far too generous with a 1% chance. )

1. Passion of the Christ
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
16. The Incredibles

Locks
17. The Grudge
18. Ocean's Twelve
19. Meet The Fockers

Great Chance
20. The Polar Express
21. Spongebob Squarepants: The Movie
23. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

Good Chance
24. Christmas with the Kranks
25. Blade: Trinity
26. The Aviator

So-So Chance
27. National Treasure
28. The Flight of the Phoenix
29. Fat Albert
30. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason

Slim Chance
31. Ray
32. Closer
33. Spanglish
34. The Phantom of the Opera

$100M POSSIBILITIES.

The Polar Express
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
National Treasure
SpongeBob SquarePants
Alexander
Christmas With the Kranks
Closer
Blade: Trinity
Ocean's Twelve
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Aviator
Meet the Fockers

12 Movies.

BRIDGET JONES depends on this weekend.
NATIONAL TREASUE, BLADE 3 and CLOSER need to have alot of luck.

1. Passion of the Christ
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
16. The Incredibles
17. The Grudge

Locks:
Ocean's Twelve
Meet the Fockers

90-75% chance:
The Polar Express
Alexander
SpongeBob
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfournate Events

50% chance:
Christmas with the Kranks
National Treasure
The Aviator
Closer
Blade: Trinity

Hardly a chance:
Bridget Jones

1. Passion of the Christ
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
16. The Incredibles
17. The Grudge

Locks
18. Ocean's Twelve
19. Meet The Fockers

Great Chance
20. The Polar Express
21. Spongebob Squarepants: The Movie
23. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

Good Chance
24. Christmas with the Kranks
25. Blade: Trinity
26. The Aviator

So-So Chance
27. National Treasure
28. The Flight of the Phoenix
29. Fat Albert
30. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason

Slim Chance
31. Ray
32. Closer
33. Spanglish
34. The Phantom of the Opera

The Grudge passes $100 million!

2004 won't have more $100 million movies than 2003. 2005 has a chance, though.

2004 has been a weird year. Three movies above $370 million, one of the R-rated. An animated flick became the third-highest grossing movie of all time. A documentary broke $100 million...and yet the number of $100+ million movies is not as high as it was last year.

I'm certain that National Treasure and The Polar Express will make it. However, I'm not certain about Spongebob; it's showing some signs of frontloading. Goodbye to Bridget Jones and Alexander, and the chances for the Kranks are looking slim.

1. Passion
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
16. The Incredibles
17. The Grudge

Locks:
National Treasure (UP)
Meet the Fockers
Best Picture Winner

90%+ Chance:
The Polar Express (UP)
Oceans Twelve
Lemony Snicket

75%-89.9% Chance:
2nd strongest best picture nominee

50%-74.9%:
Spongebob Squarepants
Aviator
3rd strongest best picture nominee

25%-49.9%:
Finding Neverland (UP)
Blade: Trinity
Spanglish

10%-24.9%:
Ray (Down)
Christmas with the Kranks (Down)

1%-9.9%:
The Flight of the Pheonix
Closer
An Unfinished Life
Phantom of the Opera
Fat Albert
In Good Company

Eliminated:
Princess Diaries 2 (I've given up on the very small chance of a re-release.)
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
Alexander

1. Passion of the Christ
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
16. The Incredibles
17. The Grudge

Locks
18. Ocean's Twelve
19. Meet The Fockers
20. The Polar Express
21. National Treasure

Great Chance
22. Spongebob Squarepants: The Movie
23. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

Good Chance
24. Christmas with the Kranks
25. Blade: Trinity
26. The Aviator

So-So Chance
27. The Flight of the Phoenix
28. Fat Albert

Slim Chance
29. Closer
30. Spanglish
31. The Phantom of the Opera

National Treasure and Polar Express are both locks now.

National Treasure looks to pass the century mark this weekend. I still can't believe it. The Polar Express should pass it by next weekend.

On the other hand, it looks like Spongebob is pretty much out of the race. It'll struggle to hit $90 million.

National Treasure makes it 18 for the year. The Polar Express will make it 19 this coming weekend.

1. Passion
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
16. The Incredibles
17. The Grudge
18. National Treasure

Locks:
The Polar Express (UP)
Meet the Fockers
Best Picture Winner

90%+ Chance:
Lemony Snicket

75%-89.9% Chance:
2nd strongest best picture nominee

50%-74.9%:
Blade: Trinity (Up) - Increased due to great TV spots that are running.
Oceans Twelve (Down) - Decreased due to horrible TV spots that are running.
Aviator
3rd strongest best picture nominee

25%-49.9%:
Finding Neverland
Spanglish

10%-24.9%:
Christmas with the Kranks

1%-9.9%:
Spongebob Squarepants (Down)
Closer
The Flight of the Pheonix
An Unfinished Life
Phantom of the Opera
Fat Albert
In Good Company

Eliminated:
Ray - Well, it still probably has a chance if it does extremely well at the Oscars, but that can be included under my best picture nominee entries above.

The Polar Express becomes the 19th of the year.

I'm guessing we'll see $100M grosses from the following movies for the year:
Ocean's Twelve
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Meet the Fockers
The Aviator/Million Dollar Baby (one of these will surprise, I'm sensing)

I think realistically for the rest of the year we have the following:

Locks

Oceans 12
Meet the Fockers
Lemony Snicket


Solid Chance/good legs

Spanglish
The Aviator

Outsider/surprise/awards
The Phantom of the Opera

Current holdovers/expanders/holiday boost
Closer
Kranks
Ray


Id say the following will make it:

Oceans 12
Fockers
Aviator
Snicket
Spanglish
Ray (with Foxx awards boost)
Kranks (with holiday boost)
One mystery film

Thats eight films - bringing 2004 within 3 of 2003 - but pretty good considering 2004 had 3 films surpass $370m - incredible!

Ocean's 12 is now a lock. Blade: Trinity is out of the running. We will also have an Oscar film or two make it, so I think we can top 25 films for the year.

1. Passion of the Christ
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
16. The Incredibles
17. The Grudge
18. The Polar Express
19. National Treasure

Locks
20. Ocean's Twelve
21. Meet The Fockers

Great Chance
22. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
23. The Aviator

Good Chance
24. Spongebob Squarepants: The Movie
25. Spanglish
26. Million Dollar Baby

So-So Chance
27. The Flight of the Phoenix
28. Fat Albert
29. The Phantom of the Opera

I'm not too certain of The Million Dollar Baby. Isn't that opening in limited release? I'd expect numbers similar to last year's Mystic River.

I expect numbers similar to Mystic River as well, but considering that Mystic River made $90 million, there's a chance for $100 million for Million Dollar Baby. Let's see how big it's PTA is this weekend, and hopefully we can get an idea.

Good point. I've not seen much advertising for the film, so I'm not too familiar with it (except for the brief synopsis I just read on IMDB.com). But, after all, its Clint Eastwood. Its going to be good.

We now have 22 on the year.

1. Passion
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
16. The Incredibles
17. The Grudge
18. National Treasure
19. The Polar Express
20. Meet The Fockers
21. Ocean's Twelve
22. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

We obviously won't break 2003's record. I believe the Aviator will make it with the oscar's just putting it over the top. Otherwise, we might see Million Dollar Baby reach 100m if the oscar push is great enough. However, I would consider that unlikely. Ray probably has a better chance. If it gets a best picture nom. and is rereleased like Mystic River was, it might just make it. Still, that is unlikely as well given that M&C couldn't get 100m even though it was at 85m with the noms.