This club closed February 14th!

I never started a club before, but after watching the STAR TREK trailer I fully believe this one will open to $100m (it better since it cost $150m to produce). Who's with me?

IN:
1) mark66 (Nov. 15th)
2) critch (January 17th) "I'm in." (previously No. 42 OUT)
3) Benjamin Milk (February 4th) "what the hell, it feels possible"
4) Jon (February 12th) "Hm. In."

OUT:
1) Mr. Green (no way)
2) be.redy (It's not getting half of that for the OW. Maybe not even a quarter.)
3) Dr. Lecter (no way)
4) The Dark Knight (Not even remotely)
5) Levy (This is impossible)
6) SolC9 (They're going to have to market the hell out of it just to get it to 50M)
7) thompsoncory (Absolutely not)
8) Rev (80m/180m)
9) Riggs (80m is the max)
10) T-Bag (no way)
11) O (its not happening)
12) Rorschach (STOP. SMOKING. DOPE.)
13) the ultimate biu ($50 OW is far more realistic)
14) Zingaling (lol)
15) MadGez (No way. Its also got a terrible release date)
16) Thegun (I think 70 million is the max or this, but I think 40-55 seems much more likely right now)
17) dolemit3 (no way)
18) The Dark Shape (Not even close)
19) Obama won!!! (ha)
20) almost famous (is that a joke?)
21) Royd (Wolverine will affect Star Trek the same way Iron Man did with Speed Racer)
22) The Scottie (cuckoo's clock)
23) jmovies (no way)
24) LadiesMan 217 (Remove one of the 0's and I will be in)
25) BJ (Your insane)
26) BK (Impossible)
27) Corpse (I'm thinking something around 25/65)
28) Shack (Trek is a pretty big taboo from my experience. A lot of people consider it a synonom for nerd)
29) shawman (I think it will flop)
30) misutaa (less than 30 million opening with a finish around 70 million)
31) nazgul9 (you should have waited for the sequel and then make this club)
32) trixster (Maybe if Chris Pine ODs on sleeping pills sometime in the next few months. Even then....)
33) Zuule (I put it at 35 million opening and 68 Million final)
34) LadiesMan217 (it will crack 45 million and end with $135 million)
35) excel (i see some nice legs for this one, but opening? 30's, maybe 40.)
36) Raffiki (I can see it even go as high as $60-65 million if they play their cards right.)
37) munkyfromlondon ($30 mil max.)
38) nghtvsn (if Bond can't do it why should Star Trek be able to)
39) Proud Ryu (Even the best reboot imaginable does not point north of 40)
40) DIB2 (65m Max)
41) FILMO (Make something like 46)
42) critch (while I wish for it, I'll be content for half that)
43) billybobwashere (I think it's truly and utterly impossible)
44) Waker of Winds (Star Trek isn't popular enough. And it doesn't look that good)
45) baBA (Star trek will only make over 100m opening weekend if they feature this fight with the music, reenacted in a more modern time)

Have you seen the trailer?

Than watch this:

http://www.vimeo.com/2246656

It's not getting half of that for the OW. Maybe not even a quarter. Only one Star Trek movie ever crossed 100 million with its final gross. There is just no way this can get that mark in its OW. ST movies were never huge and I don't see a reason for them to become now.

That's a strange claim...
ST1 was the 6th biggest movie of 1979
ST2 was the 7th biggest movie of 1982
ST3 was the 9th biggest movie of 1984
ST4 was the 5th biggest movie of 1986
The first two chapters broke all-time opening records, the third one achieved the second best opening weekend of all-time, the fourth one achieved the fifth best opening week of all-time...

No way.

Outgrossing the recent installments in one weekend? How often did that happen to franchise films? (and I mean outgrossing several installments in one weekend!)

Do I read this correct? 100 Million on Opening Weekend? This is impossible. They've shown thirty minutes so far, which were pretty impressive from what I heard, but the franchise is too damaged to make this much money on OW.

The trailer is very good, and I'm going to be there. But I just don't think
there's a big enough fanbase after the last few films to open that big. They're
going to have to market the hell out of it just to get it to 50M. Out.

Absolutely not. It's going to be a hit and make over 100 Million total for sure, IMO, but opening weekend is impossible.

this film looks really good. hope the movie lives up to the trailer.

all the sci-fi nerds will flock to this.
80m/180m

Not in. 80m is the the max. I see.

No way. The last movie only made $43,254,409 total. Its director Stuart Baird hasn't directed a movie since. And who can forget "Take a look, read a book" Levar Burton

Look at Batman Begins. As great as the promotion for that film was, it had to deal with a bad audience reception of Batman and Robin 8 years earlier, with a very subdued opening by 2005 standards for a superhero movie. It will have been 7 years since the last Star Trek movie, which had a 2.34 multiplier, an absolutely terrible multiplier. Batman Begins opened to $48.7 m and finished with $205 m. Then the follow up film did $158/$529 m thus far.

So, Star Trek will not be opening to $100 m.

If Star Trek had a run of say $40 m/$160 m, and showed great legs, and got a huge audience on DVD, then the follow up film would have a remote chance at $100 m opening weekend. But its not happening for the 2009 Star Trek film.

No

$50 OW is far more realistic. ST has never had a wide appeal

lol

No way. Its also got a terrible release date.

It will probably open well enough - but think of it as more of a Batman Begins or Casino Royale - solid opening but strong legs (if its good). Then the sequel has a chance of atleast getting closer to $100m OW (or $50m )

Get the Fuck out of here. The trailer is good, it looks like the most non trek film of all time, so for a chance it might appeal to mainstream people. I think the fans are good for about 35 million, and mainstream folk probably at most for that as well, so I think 70 million is the max or this, but I think 40-55 seems much more likely right now.

Yeah, lower this to $70 million and someone actually might join, but $100 million for a movie to which the predecessor grossed less than $50 million? Nah...

no way

The new trailer got laughed off the screen when I saw Quantum of Solace. No. Not even close.

ha

Is that a joke?