You do realize Gangnam Style has 2.4 BILLION views, right? And that Blank Space, which was ABSURDLY popular, and not on Spotify, and a great video, and has been out for a YEAR, has barely reached HALF of that total.

Tell me, right after Titanic continued to hold after the holidays, how would people have reacted to the idea of 600m? When it was at 200m.

Alright just watched Hello for reference.

It's a nice catchy ballad. The video is 6 minutes. It's not rewatchable. There's nothing really memorable about the video that would make me want to see it again to notice something I missed. This might get to 1.5 billion I guess just because it's Adele but this isn't toppling Gangnam Style. That's just not even realistic.

What? We're not talking about Titanic. Gangnam is Titanic. Hello is MBFGW.

If Adele is so popular that a long, boring sepia tone video gets 6 billion views, Thriller is fucked and they will announce a new national holiday to bow to our new overlord

Yeah, Hello is the indie movie.

With Titanic at 200m the numbers were telling one story, but people's expectations were no doubt lower. People feel they are being 'moderate' or 'reasonable' because of the lack of precedent. But if you are talking about something completely outside the range of your experiences then those feelings don't necessarily mean much. Quantum mechanics or relativity didn't fit people's sense of 'normal'.

Also, do you realize that even with all of Blank Space's strenghts, Hello beat its first month in about 8 days?

Like James Cameron Day (formerly known as Christmas)?

Like James Cameron Day (formerly known as Christmas)?

Marketing 101

The video has one BIG advantage. It is the only video on Youtube with the original recording of the song. I can't find any other videos featuring the original track on YouTube. The only derivatives I can find are muted lyrics videos or videos with altered vocal. Sony Records must have notified Youtube to block any derivative works sampling the original track.

And talk about Sony's successful marketing. Learning to create hype using social media (with money to make it trending on media/fb/twitter) has become essential in the age of internet. Of course you need a sheep-like public, media, and fans as accomplices.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3296574/Woman-pranks-ex-boyfriend-thinking-wants-drunken-reunion-texting-lyrics-Adele-s-Hello-posts-awkward-exchange-Twitter.html

So what's it up to now?

198m views.

Cheers. Long way to go then.

It will set the record for the biggest first month in half a month. At the low end it should get 400m for the first month and a billion after 3. 13m today and its probably stablizing. Also you know which will be more viewed 20 years from now; it will add up.

So the answer to this thread question is 20 years? lmao

Well don't forget the boost it will get. Grammy awards, year end lists. Everything boosts plays. Though if Hello beats Gagnam it will be kinda sad. It's at best a mediocre song. Not that Gangnam is great, but it's sad seeing mediocre to bad songs being top viewed songs on the Internet.

Probably not, but even in the worst case it will still eventually get there. More likely it will never look back as it widens its lead.

Hello is great, but this is not happening.

Widens a lead that's nonexistent . Gangnam Style still racks views each day. It is Avatar . Hello is no Avatar .

It seems nothing could convince you guys other than the actual fact of it beating Gangnam Style when it happens. It seems to have stabilized over the past 4 days with 13m-15m a day. That's above Gangnam Style at its peak, so unless it holds worse it is just a matter of time. Gangnam Style did not hold that well so its not too much of a challenge.

Gangnam Style isn't Avatar; it is Girlfriend, which once had a huge lead over every other video on youtube when it was the first to hit 100m. But youtube outgrew it. Gangnam Style isn't getting very many views anymore. Looking at the numbers now, Blank Space and probably a dozen other videos already in release will eventually beat Gangnam Style. I probably should have put See You Again in the title to this thread since it appears that it will take the lead from Gangnam Style before Hello. When some song like Sugar beats Gangnam Style this thread will seem quite silly. 2.5b won't be that special at some point in the future. We have gone from 2 videos with a billion views to 11 since this very summer (headed for 40+ just with videos already in release).

I'm almost ready to declare it a lock.

Or if you want a BO analogy, Gangnam Style is like Spider-man's opening weekend.

BTW, I almost always underestimate how many views a video will get because of the way youtube is growing. The only sane, rational reason to think it might not get at least 4.5-5 billion is that there are not enough people on earth interested in this sort of song.

now you're just trolling

I hope Focus beats Gangnam Style. Now I'm trolling.

Subscriptions and shares always decline faster than views. For Hello, both declined a lot but are stabilizing so views will probably stay near 14m a day or so for months. Actually I think it could beat See You Again to 2.5b in about 8-9 months.

Sugar Vs. Gangnam Style: 1.605 billion to go. I give it 10 years.

Apart from Chippy (because he has nothing better to do), people are now ignoring your "Hello vs. Gangnum" debate, DP07.