That's what the buzz is on the news and opinion pieces now that Ossama came out with a new video a few days before the election. They are all saying it must help Bush and probably ensures his victory. What do you all think?

I don't think it has any effect at all, Archie. The reason why I don't think it has an effect is because I think voters have already made up their mind regarding who to vote for. I think the whole swing-voter issue is overblwon, and has been from the beginning.

Consider this hypothetical situation:

A voter goes into the voting booth, still undecided. What will be the key motivation behind his final decision? It can't be Kerry himself, since for the most part, he as the new guy is still relativwely unknown. I've followed the campaigns probably as closely if not more so than the average American will have done, and I still don't see Kerry sticking out as much. It doesn't help that the two candidates seem to agree on so many of the issues (and use the same rhetoric, etc., which does not distinguish them, but makes them look more like each other).

So it will come down to the voter's view of how Bush has performed over the last 4 years. If they agree with him overall, they'll go with him, if not, they'll vote for Kerry (by default). The new Bin Laden tape doesn't hold a candle to the impact of the events since 2001, which are filled with news regarding terrorism. When it comes down to the wire, it won't be a single event that will sway the majority of undecided (and those who have maede up their mind), but all those events combined.

Did the video say vote for Bush or I'll attack or somehting?

People have always, known, should have known Osama is a threat, the real threat and the person attention should have been focused on above all other "threats"

This video should have no new information. Unless people were too stupid too realize, in which case I think there should be like some new test before you are allowed to vote.

So, I guess I'm saying it should have no effect, but with the way people are so uninformed, you never know. Hmm, i should have just said that form the beginning...

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/ ... index.html

There's a story about it in the above link. Excerpt below.

(CNN) -- Osama bin Laden delivered a new videotaped message in which he told Americans their security does not depend on the president they elect, but on U.S. policy. And he said al Qaeda remains motivated to strike the U.S. again.

"Although we are ushering the fourth year after 9/11, Bush is still exercising confusion and misleading you and not telling you the true reason. Therefore, the motivations are still there for what happened to be repeated," bin Laden said.

It marked the first videotaped message from the al Qaeda leader in nearly three years. (CNN's Octavia Nasr discusses the tape)

The tape was aired on the Arabic language network Al-Jazeera Friday, just four days before the U.S. presidential election.

Bin Laden said the message was being delivered directly to the American people, saying the attacks of September 11, 2001 were the result of U.S. foreign policy in Arab lands, specifically referring to Lebanon and the Palestinians. The terror attacks killed nearly 3,000 people.

At one point, he mentioned both President Bush and Democratic candidate Sen. John Kerry.

"Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands. Any nation that does not attack us will not be attacked," bin Laden said in the video.

Come to think of it, Dubya's insane presidency HAS been incredibly good for Osama's career and boosted Al Qaeda's membership, so there's no doubt in my mind he wants to see Dubya re-elected.

Allah only knows what that crazy Arab has up his sleeve next, but you can be sure he's going to use the Bush League as a lightning rod. One ill-advised theocracy pretty much deserves another.

OBL wants Bush because OBL just loves war and Bush will just provide him with that...OBL wants the world to go at war and he will think that Bush will attack more people....OBL wants the Christian WEST Vs. Muslims

wat a sick sick bastard

I think OBL probably wants bush to remain president, i dont remember where i heard but it was something like as long as bush is president he'll keep pushing troops into war and that'll give eneiugh space to attack while the US is stretched

Seems like you've personally met the guy :wink:

I think Loyal from London wins the pool on this one 5 days before election day a new Terrorist threat/message will surface.

Anyone have any money on it in Vegas?

DARPA wanted to create a futures market for this stuff, but the PC crowd wouldn't let it

Take your hands off my free market dammit!


wait I know they could tax every dollar spent on this then it would AOK! :wink:

It will be important AFTER the election, trust me. :wink:

If Bush wins, pundits will say "See? The OBL video made people think about terrorism again, and that makes them side with Bush because they believe he will fight terrorism more than Kerry."

If Kerry wins, pundits will say "See? The OBL video made people think about the fact that Bush never captured him and tried to distract us with an attack on Sadaam instead, and that's why they voted against Bush."

I believe it will affect different people in different ways. If they were leaning one way or the other, it may have pushed them in that direction.

Bush has him imprisoned somewhere and made him tape this so he can win.

Even i, who really like kerry, now think you should vote for Bush. B/c if you don't, it seems like america is listening to them and giving into their demands, just like the Philipenes and spain and other countries have done.

Kerry won't be like the Spanish. Even though I prefer Bush to him, I have confidence in Kerry not giving in to terrorists. Hey may not be agressive enough to my liking, but he realizes the threat they pose.

"We want people to think 'terrorism' for the last four days," said a Bush-Cheney campaign official. "And anything that raises the issue in people's minds is good for us."
A senior GOP strategist added, "anything that makes people nervous about their personal safety helps Bush."

He called it "a little gift," saying it helps the President but doesn't guarantee his reelection.

http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/ ... 2149c.html

OBL

ODB?

Ah. Lovely.