I agree that he is a wimpy leader. Dems should put Chuck Schumer or some tougher Dem into the minority leader post.

First of all, they're not sour grapes, they're Razzies. And the Sox winning is a sign. Its the precurser to the ultimate New England Victory. They are to Kerry what John was to Jesus I guess you oculd say. This is so a sign from above. They're up three nothing now right?

As for me, someone above posted the Kerry will take Florida but Jeb will play games. I don't think that is the case. Floridians will vote for Dubya, no question about it. They know who's brother the governor is, and they need federal money to dish themselves out of four hurricanes. They're acting in self interest, and if your home got blown over and the traffic lights are still down in your area, I would probably understand why you'd cast your vote that way.

Oregon goes to Kerry, as does New Hampshire. New Mexico, I'd say Kerry, but even if not, its 5 votes isn't it.

Its down to the great lakes this time. Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Bush takes Iowa. I don't think there is any doubt in my mind Kerry takes Michigan, so I didn't list it.

So there you go, I'm leaning towards Ohio to Bush and Minnesota/Wisconsin to Kerry. I'll check the math on that and get back to you.

-Dolce

Since Dolce gave an analysis of her reasoning, I'll do the same for my prediction:

A shitload of people are going to vote and that favors dems.

My prediction:

Bush will win the election by more than 5%

A few days ago I thought Bush would win, but something in my gut has my bet placed firmly on Kerry now . Everywhere I've been lately people have been encouraging people to vote. I think turn will be huge. which favors Kerry.

im starting to think Bush is going to win! :evil: :evil:

This race is the Democrats to lose.

It is totally a dead heat because of a few things.

Barring no major upsets this race comes down to 2 states: Ohio and Florida

Ohio has been hit hard by job loss, but is traditionally republican and I think it stays that way. Florida too.

Unless amazing tunout swings some close states Bush should win.

KJ

Kerry - 279 (Hawaii, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesotta, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin)
Bush - 259 (Florida, Nevada, New Mexico)

OK. Here goes my comprehensive prediction:

Bush carries 29 states with 252 electoral votes: Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Wisconsin, New Jersey (upset), West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia.

Kerry carries 21 states (plus DC) with 286 electoral votes : Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticutt, Delaware, Maryland, DC and Florida.

There ya go. The election in a nutshell. By the way, the margin of victory will be less than 3 percent in at least 10 states. The overall popular vote will probably be separated by less than one percent.

Get your lawyers ready. This one may not even be decided by Jan. 20, 2005.

Prophesy...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3960679.stm


Maybe, but Florida has been hit by hurricanes before and the people there realize this, and they know that the US Gov't always comes to the rescue regardless of who is in the white house, as any president would. Personally, I have never talked to a Floridian who gave this reasoning.

I think you also have to take into account that the democrats in Florida might be a little more likely to vote this year because of the fiasco in 2000 with the votes, people might be more willing to make a statement because of the electoral college mess.

Regardless of who I would want to win in the election atm, I still think Bush is going to win... maybe I'm the ultimate pessimist! The election favors the incumbent (which is typical) and being that this is split in two between two canidates who aren't great I think it would favor Bush. It would be one thing if we had someone as charismatic as Clinton running.

I DO think it's going to be mighty close, MIGHTY close. If we have to decide this election in the House or the Supreme Court again, after only 4 years, the Electoral College and the whole system of selecting a president will, I believe, become a serious issue leading up to 2008.

And trust me, I don't underestimate Kerry's ability to come from ahead and lose it. If he wins it will be inspite of his campaigning ability not because of it.

Andaroo, that article about the mail-in ballots dissappearing.
I'm actually surprised since I know how closely Florida is being watched this election, that Jeb would try to do anything, but I guess I was wrong.

Krem, I guess Amer and I were right and there is a margin of error!

I can do the math a million times and think Kerry could sneak in, but there is just something in my gut that has me agreeing with Matatonio. I'm positive alot of tricks are going to get pulled out of the bag very soon. Frankly, the fact that it is such a close race at this moment is a bit dissappointing to me anyways, and is true indication of Democrats inability to organize and mobilize around a strong platform. I though having as many primary candidates including Dean and Kucinich would help alot, but somehow their consistency and strength didn't really carry on through.

BOYFRESH and Archie, you guys might be right about the new registered voters, but I think there has been an increase of registered voters in both parties. Even if the Democrats got dramatically more, which they did I bet, doesn't mean some of the people aren't pretty close to the middle and could jump sides if Bush *miraculously* procurs Bin Laden or something. I don't know...Entire Nation on Red Alert! I think alot of people registered Democrat because they have identity through opposition right now, and are just against Bush. If Bush appeals to them, than who knows what they'll do?

I don't know. Next Tuesday is going to be dreadfully stressing. I offered to work at my district's polling station, but I don't think they needed me. Everyone who can should go work at a place to make sure everyone gets a change to vote, and I mean that, regardless of their political orientation. This election day is just going to be seriously u.g.l.y. I have a feeling everyone is going to be glued to their tv's listening to equally as wacky scenarios as they did last time around.

About Florida: Stop friggin giving them emergency relief! If we keep on handing them money, they'll keep on building them houses right on the ocean, they'll keep on building them out of cardboard, and they'll keep on not insuring their houses.

There is a reason why so many houses get ripped with each hurricane: you're not supposed to build houses there!

"Should the two Americas hold seperate elections?"

Anyways, I always go onto the NYTimes vote calculator, and its pretty fun because you can change the political orientation of the swing states to see who gets to 271. Here's the address, http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/po ... E_GRAPHIC/
I guess you can use bugmenot.com if you don't have oline membership to the times.

I played around with it, and almost anyway you slice it, Kerry NEEDS Ohio and Wisconsin? That's just me because I gave FL to Bush. This is going to be tough. I have a feeling he'll take Wisconsin, but not Ohio.

On the plus side, Oregon, which up until now was considered a swing, has been reclassified as leaning towards Kerry. Thanks Makeshift...you muct have done a good job convincing alot of people why Kerry is clearly the better candidate. Remind me to tell Kerry to send you a thank-you note.

-Dolce

More on Florida:



Okay. Who wants to take the first jab at the "Florida Deaprtment of Law Enforcement"?

-Dolce

First off, I'm usually a pessimist through and through. However, for some reason I just cannot see Bush winning this election...I'm unnaturally optimistic for Kerry's chances.

However, this doesn't go to say that I'm incredibly scared and nervous for Tuesday....If Bush really does win, especially if he does decisively, I will have lost all hope in my people. It will be a dark day for sure. The fact that I plan to get drunk for the election coverage at night (shoutout to AgentX for the great idea!! ) could prove to be either a great or a horrendous decision...likely depending on the outcome.

Anywho, I don't really spend much time analyzing all the states and the polls and whatnot, for one because I'm lazy, secondly because it scares me to consider the possibility of Bush winning, and thirdly, politics aren't really my thing, although I do have strong convictions and opinions.

Here's to Kerry.

May the right man win. Which is Kerry. Obviously.

Bump!

here are my winners

Prez. Kerry
Sen. goes to the GOP
House Goes to the Dems.

The last one is not theoretically possible.

EDIT: I mean, it's possible in theory, but has no chance of actually happening.

True. I see Dems picking up two seats in the House. There could be a tie in the Senate, but the chance of that happening is slim to none. GOP will still have more governors as well. I do think Kerry will pick up the seat of President.

Here are my predictions:

Kerry is going to win by a big enough margin that Bush won't challenge it. The turnout is going to be larger than expected and that favors Kerry.

Kerry: 311
Bush: 227

I hope the weather is horrible tommorrow in Democrat strongholds.

No way in Hell do the Dems take the House. They could lose up to 5 seats in Texas alone, after the 2002 Redistricting.

That is very optomistic Mike. You're pretty much saying Kerry takes every single swing state with numbers like that. I would love to believe it. Many people are on you boat. I tend to go, now, with

Bush, 239
Kerry, 252

47 undecided from Ohio and Florida.

Either way you cut it from there, Kerry needs one of those two, but only one. If he takes Ohio (and Bush Florida) Than he wins by 1 vote (272 in the electorate), and if he takes Florida (and Bush takes Ohio) he wins with 279. If he takes both, it'll be 299, but I still don't see him anywhere near 311.

-Dolce

right now for sure Bush is winning 147 to 146....very very close

If Bush wins Ohio and Pennsylvannia then he will win...If kerry wins Ohio he will win

oops! I meant :
Sen. Goes to Dems. and House stays with GOP

I Don't think it will be close. Kerry takes FL,PA, and OH. I think the winner will be announced by 11pm CST. Bush will not give a concession speech he's to stubborn for that.

You need 270 to win.